Trilateral cooperation to continue despite shift from multilateralism under Trump 2.0, say experts

Will Trump’s Return to the White House Weaken the United Nations?

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House has sparked concern among UN insiders and observers. Experts predict a shift in U.S. foreign policy away from multilateralism and towards a more inward-focused approach, potentially diminishing American involvement at the UN and other international organizations.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 16. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

A Move Towards Bilateral Cooperation

While experts believe bilateral and trilateral security cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan will likely continue, the reduction in U.S. engagement at the UN could hinder South Korea’s efforts to rally international action against North Korea’s weapons development and troop deployment to Russia.

One longtime UN official expressed deep concern about the potential for further gridlock at the organization, pointing to the “most difficult” period in its history due to major powers flouting international law.

Concerns Over Weakening Multilateral Institutions

Analysts also predict that Trump’s return could weaken multilateral institutions such as the UN and NATO, as well as U.S. security commitments to allies. They foresee a decrease in meaningful dialogue with adversaries like Iran and North Korea.

China and Russia, experts suggest, could capitalize on the anticipated vacuum in U.S. leadership at international forums.

The main entrance at United Nations headquarters in New York on Sept. 22. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

International observers warn that US disengagement could have detrimental consequences for smaller nations reliant on UN support.

Heightened tensions between major powers on the Security Council have also limited the UN’s ability to effectively manage conflicts.

Uncertainty and Potential Impacts

While the Biden administration has lauded the UN’s role in mediating tensions, particularly in the Black Sea grain corridor initiative, officials are apprehensive about potential funding cuts from a Trump administration.

Diplomats are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach. The direction of US foreign policy under Trump remains unclear, with various forces within the administration vying for influence.

The success of figures like Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance in shaping US policy towards the UN will be crucial in determining the fate of multilateralism.

What are your thoughts on the potential impact of Trump’s return to the White House on the UN? Share your views in the comments below.