Birmingham: prediction of the match England Championship (Championship) December 26, 2021

December 26, 2021 18:00
Championship of England (Championship), round 24

Fulham

championship

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Birmingham

Birmingham

The England Championship (Championship) game between Fulham and Birmingham will begin on December 26 at 18:00 (Moscow time) at Craven Cottage stadium. Match predictions from Betting Tools experts will help you identify profitable bets. Bookmakers predict Fulham’s victory with a 2-3 goal advantage – it is possible to bet “Summer residents” with any score with a coefficient of 1.39 (at the time of writing a preview). You can bet on Lee Boyer’s team to win with odds of 7.81. Tied bets are accepted with odds of 4.70. Bookmakers expect high performance from the match: bets on total over 2.5 goals are offered with odds of 1.78. You can bet on TM 2.5 with a coefficient of 2.03.

Fulham – Birmingham. Key facts about the match

  • Fulham faced Sheffield United on 20 December in his last England Championship match. The fight ended with a score 0: 1 not in his favor. Marco Silva’s players do not win five matches in a row: they lost once and drew four times. In each of the last 5 matches with the participation of Fulham, the performance has not exceeded two goals.
  • Birmingham in the last match in the Championship of England (Championship) on December 18 met with Blackburn. The fight ended with his defeat 0: 4. The Blues’ losing streak reached three matches – two lost matches and one draw. In each of the last 3 matches with the participation of the team, the scoring exceeded two goals.
  • The previous match between Fulham and Birmingham in the Championship of England (Championship) took place on September 15, 2021 and ended 4: 1 in favor of Fulham. It was Fulham’s third win in a row against Birmingham.
  • The home team is stronger in defense than in attack: the defense rating is 1326, and the attack rating is 1166. The visiting team in defense and attack plays at about the same level (809 defense rating and 750 attack rating).
  • Home Attack / Away Defense Ratio 1.44. The expected number of goals for the attacking team with this ratio is 1.83.
  • The ratio of the away attack rating to the home defense rating is 0.57. The expected number of goals for the attacking team with this ratio is 0.82.
  • In the last five Fulham matches, bets on a draw (+ 228.0%) and on total under 2.5 goals (+ 103.0%) were profitable.
  • In the last five matches of Birmingham, it was profitable to bet on total over 2.5 goals (+ 37.0%) and on a draw (+ 31.0%).

Match predictions were generated using machine learning: the predictive model was trained on a large sample of played matches and now, based on the data obtained, it generates predictions for upcoming matches, taking into account the incoming parameters. One of the key factors for forming a forecast is the ratio of the teams’ attack and defense ratings.

Odds estimation for the match Fulham – Birmingham

A score of more than 1 means the odds are underestimated and the bet is mathematically beneficial. If the score is less than 1, the coefficient is overvalued and the rate is mathematically unprofitable. The predictions for the match are formed taking into account the estimates of the odds, but this is not a decisive factor. For this reason, sometimes a prediction can be made for the outcome whose coefficient score is below 1.

Profitability of betting on team matches:

Fulham

Birmingham

Winning bets

-100.0%
-55.0%

Draw Betting

+228.0%
+31.0%

Loss bets

-7.0%
-18.0%

Bets on TM 2.5

+103.0%
-33.0%

Betting on TB 2.5

-100.0%
+37.0%

Bookmaker glasses

10.2
6.5

Actual points

4
5

Note: Bookmaker Points – the number of points that a team should have scored based on bookmaker odds in the last five matches (or less if the team does not have five matches with odds). Calculation according to the formula: 3 / k-t for a win + 1 / k-t for a draw. Actual points – the actual number of points that the team has scored in the last five matches (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw).

Note: the average team statistics for the last 5 matches of the tournament is shown against all opponents (for the “All opponents” tab) and against opponents of the same level as the current one based on bookmaker odds (for the “Opponents of the same level” tab).

Fulham. Advantages over an opponent in statistics: more shots on goal (15.6 versus 13.8); a higher percentage of long-range strikes (30.8% versus 24.6%); fewer missed hits (6.6 vs 11.0); higher percentage of ball possession (55.2 versus 49.8); higher passing accuracy (79.2 vs 64.2); fewer fouls per match (9.0 vs.10.6).

Birmingham. Advantages over the opponent in statistics: higher accuracy of shots on goal (37.7% versus 23.1%); a higher percentage of shots from the penalty area (75.4% versus 69.2%); higher percentage of blocked shots (34.5% versus 24.2%); more corners per match (7.4 vs 6.2).

Favorite / Outsider. How will the game go?

Based on current winner odds, Fulham is a Class A team and Birmingham is a Class C team. In the last 50 matches of the tournament between opponents of these classes, Class A won 68% of matches, 20% of matches ended in a draw and 12% of matches were won by the team. class C.

A
A clear favorite. Significantly outperforms the competitor in the class. Winning odds in the range of 1.25 – 1.60.

C
A clear outsider of the match. Risk of losing by more than one goal. Odds for winning in the range: 5.50 – 12.00.

Fulham (A)

Birmingham (C)

Explanation of the predicted course of play between Fulham and Birmingham: Based on the available statistics of the history of meetings of similar class of teams, it was concluded that the percentage of chance to win in regulation time against Fulham is 68%. The team has a 12% chance of winning. The probability of a tie is – 20%.

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