“Brexit focuses more on identity than on cost-benefit analysis”

Which of the two parties has achieved better conditions in the Brexit agreement?

I suspect that both parties will be satisfied, as the structure of the agreement allows both the UK and the EU to proclaim ‘victory’. However, there are clearly more unanswered questions from the UK. In a direct economic sense, the agreement has negative implications for both parties (any agreement involving the UK’s exit from the customs union and single market would have had negative implications) and will undoubtedly affect the UK more strongly.

Will there be chaos and public disorder in the next few if supplies are not guaranteed?

I’m not sure there is necessarily going to be a public disorder, it’s hard to tell. But the fact that the agreement appears to minimize potential supply chain disruption appears to reduce risk considerably. Of course, it is worth remembering that many UK companies (e.g. supermarket chains) had built up bookings before the New Year, which could have softened the impact of a no-deal Brexit in any case.

Has British views on leaving the EU changed after the torturous negotiation?

Most Brexit polls suggest that few Britons have changed their minds in the past four years – Brexit opponents mostly still oppose leaving the EU. And those who supported Brexit mostly still support it. I think the truth is that views on Brexit have always been less focused on an objective assessment of costs and benefits economic aspects of EU membership and more on identity. The Brexit case, in fact, was always more trapped in the plane of ideas about the history of the United Kingdom and its place in the world. Those who support Brexit will likely see any negative effects of leaving the EU as a consequence of mismanagement by the British government or actions by the EU and European governments.

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