Cardiff City vs Birmingham Prediction

April 30, 2022 5:00 pm
English championship (Championship), round 45

Cardiff City

championship

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Birmingham

Birmingham

On April 30 at 17:00 (Moscow time) at the stadium “Cardiff City” the match of the championship of England (Championship) between the teams of Cardiff City and Birmingham will take place. Forecast of the outcome of the match / total Betting Tools for profitable bets further. In bookmakers, Cardiff City is considered the favorite. At the time of writing the preview, the coefficient for the victory of Steve Morison’s wards was 2.08. It is proposed to bet on the victory of Lee Boyer’s wards with a quote of 3.52. Bets on a draw are accepted with a coefficient of 3.42. Bookmakers bet on the low performance of the game: you can bet on TM 2.5 with a coefficient of 1.77. Bets on over 2.5 are accepted with odds of 2.04.

Cardiff City – Birmingham. Key facts about the match

  • Cardiff City in their last match in the Championship of England (Championship) on 27 April played against Middlesbrough and lost 0:2. For the team of Steve Morison, this was the fourth defeat in a row. In the previous five matches of the tournament, Cardiff City have won only one duel and lost the other four duels. In each of the last 3 matches of Cardiff City, the performance did not exceed two goals.
  • Birmingham in their last match in the Championship of England (Championship) on April 23 played with Millwall and drew 2: 2 (Birmingham scored Juninho Bakuna and Lyle Taylor). Lee Boyer’s men have not won in their last four matches – three lost matches and one draw. In each of the previous 3 matches with the participation of the team, more than two goals were scored.
  • The last match between Cardiff City and Birmingham in the Championship (Championship) took place on 11 December 2021 and ended without a winner – draw 2:2. Cardiff City have gone unbeaten in five straight matches, winning three and drawing two.
  • Cardiff City are stronger in defense than in attack (defense rating 874 and attack rating 746). The guests, on the contrary, play better in attack than in defense (defense rating 605, and attack rating 844).
  • The ratio of the attack rating of the home team and the defense rating of the away team is 1.23. The average expected number of goals for the attacking team for this ratio is 1.55.
  • The ratio of the attack rating of the guests and the defense rating of the home team is 0.97. With this ratio, the average expected number of goals per match for an attacking team is 1.26.
  • In the last five matches involving Cardiff City, it was profitable to bet on the loss of Steve Morison’s wards (+63.0%).
  • In the last five matches with the participation of Birmingham, bets on total over 2.5 goals (+24.0%) and on the loss of Lee Boyer’s wards (+16.0%) brought profit.

The predictions for the match were generated using machine learning: the predictive model was trained on a large sample of matches played and now, based on the received data, it generates predictions for upcoming matches, taking into account the input parameters. One of the key factors for forecasting is the ratio of teams’ attack and defense ratings.

Estimated odds for the match Cardiff City – Birmingham

A score greater than 1 means that the coefficient is underestimated and the bet is mathematically profitable. If the score is less than 1, the coefficient is overestimated and the bet is mathematically unprofitable. Predictions for the match are formed taking into account the estimates of the coefficients, but this is not a decisive factor. For this reason, sometimes a prediction can be made on the outcome, the coefficient of which is lower than 1.

Profitability of bets on team matches:

Cardiff City

Birmingham

Win betting

-38.0%
-24.0%

Draw Betting

-100.0%
-34.0%

Loss betting

+63.0%
+16.0%

Bets on TM 2.5

+5.0%
-30.0%

Over 2.5 bets

-8.0%
+24.0%

Betting points

5.4
5.4

Actual Points

3
4

Note: Bookmaker points – the number of points that a team should have scored based on bookmaker odds in the last five matches (or less if the team does not have five odds matches). Calculation according to the formula: 3/set for a win + 1/set for a draw. Actual points – the actual number of points that a team has scored in the last five matches (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw).

Note: the average statistics of teams for the last 5 matches of the tournament against all opponents (for the “All Opponents” tab) and against opponents of the same level as the current one based on betting odds (for the “Opponents of the same level” tab) is indicated.

Cardiff City. Advantages over the opponent in statistics: a higher percentage of shots from the penalty area (73.1% vs. 65.5%); fewer missed shots (8.4 vs. 10.0); higher percentage of shots blocked (23.8% vs. 22.0%); higher percentage of possession (50.2 vs. 49.0); higher passing accuracy (78.2 vs. 64.8); fewer fouls per match (7.8 vs. 9.6).

Birmingham. Advantages over the opponent in statistics: more shots on goal (11.0 vs. 10.4); higher accuracy of shots on goal (40.0% vs. 30.8%); higher percentage of long shots (34.5% vs. 26.9%).

Favorite / Outsider. How will the game go?

Based on current odds on the winner of the match, Cardiff City is classified as a B+ team and Birmingham is a B- team. In the last 50 matches of the tournament between opponents of such classes, the B+ class team won 54% of the matches, 20% of the matches ended in a draw and 26% of the matches were won by the B- class team.

B+
Nominal favorite of the match. The real chances of winning do not exceed 50%. Odds for winning in the range of 2.00 – 2.40.

B-
Nominal underdog of the match. Has a slightly lower chance of winning than the opponent. Odds for winning in the range of 2.95 – 3.70.

Cardiff City ( B+ )

Birmingham (B-)

Explanation of the predicted course of the game between the teams Cardiff City and Birmingham: Based on the available statistics of the history of meetings that are similar in class of teams, it has been concluded that the percentage chance of winning in regular time is 54% for Cardiff City. The team’s chances of winning are 26%. The probability of a draw is 20%.

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