Climate: Weather organization expects new heat records – knowledge

Weather experts expect a new heat record year by 2026 and a further increase in the average temperature over this period. According to a report published on Tuesday, the probability of this is 93 percent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report in genf.

The risk that global warming will reach the critical mark of 1.5 degrees in at least one of the next five years has also increased and is reported by the scientists to be almost 50 percent. Globally, the hottest year to date was 2016, when the global average temperature was about 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The Paris climate agreement of 2015 sets the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era.

In 2015, when the international community agreed on the Paris Agreement, it was still considered practically impossible that the 1.5 degree mark would be reached within five years. In the years 2017 to 2021, the probability that this value will be exceeded was 10 percent.

From the threshold of 1.5 degrees, climate impacts become increasingly harmful

WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas warned that the 1.5 degree threshold is not accidental. It marks “the point at which climate impacts become increasingly harmful for people and for the entire planet”. Taalas reiterated warnings of continued greenhouse gas emissions and resulting warmer and more acidic oceans, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels and more extreme weather patterns. Arctic warming is disproportionately high. “What happens in the Arctic affects us all,” said the head of the UN organization.

See Also:  Ice Hockey - Vegas Golden Knights Games vs. San Jose Postponed - Sports

The calculations were made by the British meteorological authority for the WMO. Leon Hermanson, head of the current analysis at the British weather service Met, emphasized that exceeding the 1.5 degree mark in a single year does not mean that the threshold of the Paris Agreement has been breached. But it shows “that we are getting closer to a situation in which 1.5 degrees could be exceeded over a longer period of time”. According to a preliminary WMO calculation, global warming was 1.1 degrees in 2021. For the years 2022 to 2026, the researchers expect annual average temperatures to be 1.1 to 1.7 degrees above the pre-industrial level – that is the mean from 1850 to 1900. According to the calculations, the temperature deviation in the Arctic will be more than three times as high as that global changes compared to the 1991-2020 average.

The forecasts also predict a greater probability of precipitation in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia until 2026, but drier conditions in the Amazon region. During the winter months of this period, rainfall is expected to increase in the tropics and decrease in the subtropics.

The next climate conference is scheduled for November

The report from Geneva comes halfway between the last world climate conference COP26 in Glasgow and the next conference COP27 in Egypt. Around 30,000 participants, including 120 heads of state and government, are expected in the seaside resort of Sharm el Sheikh in November. Halfway through the COP, observers draw a sobering conclusion on climate protection, also because of the war in Ukraine.

See Also:  Beyond Iowa - Sports

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.