1 in 3 Australians doubt US would defend them if China attacks
A Lowy Institute 2025 poll indicates that 80% of Australians still view the US alliance as very or fairly important for security. This support persists despite widespread disagreement with Donald Trump's policies and a loss of trust in the US to act responsibly on the global stage. Public opinion on leadership is split, with Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese nearly tied on managing relations with Trump, though Albanese is viewed as more capable of handling relations with China and President Xi Jinping.
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- ✓ 80% of Australians believe the US alliance is very or fairly important for security.
- ✓ The Lowy Institute 2025 poll found Australians have lost trust in the US to act responsibly in the world.
What changed
The Lowy Institute 2025 poll provides specific data on public trust in US leadership and the perceived capabilities of Australian political leaders.
Live updates
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Australians maintain alliance support despite trust loss in US leadership
A Lowy Institute 2025 poll indicates that 80% of Australians still view the US alliance as very or fairly important for security. This support persists despite widespread disagreement with Donald Trump's policies and a loss of trust in the US to act responsibly on the global stage. Public opinion on leadership is split, with Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese nearly tied on managing relations with Trump, though Albanese is viewed as more capable of handling relations with China and President Xi Jinping.
Why it matters
Australia relies on its Washington alliance to deter hostile nations. This strategy faces internal criticism from those who view it as subservient or outdated.
What is confirmed
- 80% of Australians believe the US alliance is very or fairly important for security.
- The Lowy Institute 2025 poll found Australians have lost trust in the US to act responsibly in the world.
Still unconfirmed
- Australians strongly disagree with key policies of Donald Trump.
What to watch next
- Future Lowy Institute polling on US-Australia security trust
- Official policy shifts in the US-Australia alliance
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (3)
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Experts warn Australia against relying on US defense in China conflict
International security experts are warning Australia that it cannot rely on the United States for troop support if China attacks. This skepticism follows a trend of declining confidence in US leadership and growing public concern over foreign interference. While Australia officially prioritizes deterring hostile nations through its alliance with Washington, critics argue this strategy reflects subservience rather than a sustainable security plan. Some analysts suggest that current domestic anti-immigration policies are further weakening Australia's strategic position.
Why it matters
Australia has historically maintained a close security partnership with the US to counter regional threats. Recent polls show 64% of Australians fear interference from China and Russia, while 54% worry about US interference. This tension exists as Australia identifies China as the primary cause of worsening regional security.
What is confirmed
- International security experts have warned Australia against relying on the US for defense in the event of a China attack.
Still unconfirmed
- Anti-immigration policy is weakening Australia's strategic position.
What to watch next
- Official government responses to the security expert warnings
- Changes to Australian immigration policy affecting strategic alliances
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1 in 3 Australians doubt US would defend them if China attacks
Australians are increasingly concerned about their country's security, with many doubting the US would defend them if China attacks. A recent poll found 54% of Australians are concerned about US interference in Australia, while 64% are concerned about interference from China and Russia. The Lowy Institute's annual poll also revealed a significant drop in Australian confidence in US leadership and its global role.
Why it matters
This growing unease comes as Australia establishes new alliances and security systems in the South Pacific to counter a permanent contest with China. The country's strategic competition with China is seen as a reality by Foreign Minister Penny Wong. The government has warned partners that Chinese naval activity in the Pacific is becoming more frequent and far-reaching.
What is confirmed
- Australians remain supportive of the US alliance, but are viewing it more critically than before.
- 54% of Australians said they were concerned about US interference in Australia.
- 64% of Australians are concerned about interference from China and Russia.
- A recent Lowy Institute poll reveals a significant drop in Australian confidence in US leadership and its global role.
- 89% of voters either fear Australia's security could deteriorate or believe the country is already not secure.
Still unconfirmed
- Chinese naval activity in the Pacific is becoming more frequent and far-reaching.
What to watch next
- The release of the next Lowy Institute poll
- Any major developments in Australia-China relations
- The outcome of Australia's efforts to establish new alliances and security systems in the South Pacific
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Australia expands Pacific security ties amid Chinese military growth
Australia is establishing new alliances and security systems in the South Pacific to counter a permanent contest with China. Foreign Minister Penny Wong describes this strategic competition as a reality. While Canberra signs treaties with Island states to maintain its status as the top regional power, the government has warned partners that Chinese naval activity in the Pacific is becoming more frequent and far-reaching. This effort to secure the region coincides with internal doubts regarding the reliability of international defense partners.
Why it matters
Canberra is reacting to a perceived security gap in its immediate neighborhood. These strategic shifts follow a period of fluctuating diplomatic relations with Beijing. The goal is to prevent China from establishing dominant military or political footholds in the South Pacific.
What is confirmed
- Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated in 2024 that Australia is in a state of permanent contest in the Pacific.
- Australia is signing treaties with Pacific Island states to build a new security system.
Still unconfirmed
- Rear Admiral Peter Briggs (Rtd) reports concerns over the UK's ability to deliver SSN-AUKUS submarines.
What to watch next
- Updates on the delivery timeline for SSN-AUKUS submarines from the UK
- Results of the new security treaties with Pacific Island states
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (3)
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- www.navylookout.com — Mounting concern in Australia over UK ability to deliver SSN-AUKUS - Navy Lookout
- strategicanalysis.org — Australia’s security race in the South Pacific | Strategic ...
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1 in 3 Australians doubt US defense commitment if China attacks
A significant portion of Australians are skeptical about the US commitment to defend them in the event of a Chinese attack. This concern arises amid complex geopolitical dynamics between the US, China, and Australia. The diplomatic thaw between China and Australia has led to limited thaw in Australians' negativity towards China, but concerns about China's military might remain.
Why it matters
The concern about US defense commitment comes as Australia intensifies military preparedness amid rising US–China strategic competition. Australia is staging joint exercises with the US and expanding intelligence cooperation. The country is also navigating tensions between its security ally and largest economic partner.
What is confirmed
- Australia is intensifying military preparedness amid rising US–China strategic competition
- Australia deepens military ties with the US while maintaining crucial trade relationships with China
- Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott warned that Australia risks being caught off guard in a potential war over Taiwan
Still unconfirmed
- The Greens could potentially steal Labor's vote in the next election
What to watch next
- Australia's joint military exercises with the US
- The outcome of the diplomatic thaw between China and Australia
- The US commitment to defend Australia in the event of a Chinese attack
confidence 70%Sources used for this update (6)
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1 in 3 Australians doubt US would defend them if China attacks
A significant portion of Australians are skeptical about the US commitment to defend them in the event of a Chinese attack. This concern arises amid the complex geopolitical dynamics between the US, China, and Australia. The diplomatic thaw between China and Australia has led to a limited thaw in Australians' negativity towards China, but concerns about China's military might remain.
Why it matters
The US-Australia relationship is crucial in the Asia-Pacific region, with Australia relying on the US for security guarantees. However, the growing rivalry between the US and China has raised questions about Australia's position in the region. The Lowy Institute's 2023 Poll found that Australians remain deeply concerned about China as a long-term potential military threat.
What is confirmed
- Australians' feelings towards China are thawing but suspicion remains high, according to the Lowy Institute's 2023 Poll.
- More than half (56%) of Australians see the resumption of ministerial contact between China and Australia as positive for Australia.
- Those nominating China as a security threat have declined 11 points from 2022 to 52%.
- Australia is increasingly concerned about China's military might, but Beijing is also its biggest trade partner.
What to watch next
- The outcome of the US-China rivalry and its implications for Australia's foreign policy.
- The results of future polls on Australians' perceptions of China and the US.
- Any developments in the diplomatic relationship between Australia and China.
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (13)
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US-Iran Communications and Regional Diplomacy Update
President Trump announced that the United States and Iran are engaged in ongoing communications following a meeting with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham in New York. Trump stated that he expects a settlement to be reached between the two nations. Concurrently, ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey gathered during the United Nations General Assembly to advocate for a deal. These regional officials also denounced recent Houthi strikes directed at Saudi Arabia and stressed that diplomacy represents the only viable method to resolve regional tensions and safeguard maritime navigation.
Why it matters
This diplomatic push occurs within the framework of ongoing international discussions involving Western and Middle Eastern leadership at the United Nations. Regional powers continue to coordinate their approach toward maritime security and conflict resolution amid persistent attacks from Houthi forces.
What is confirmed
- President Trump stated that the United States and Iran have held ongoing communications and expects a settlement to be reached.
- Ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey met on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly to push for an Iran-United States deal.
- Regional ministers condemned recent Houthi strikes targeting Saudi Arabia and emphasized that diplomacy is the only viable path to resolve regional tensions and protect maritime navigation safety.
What to watch next
- Further announcements regarding a formal settlement between the United States and Iran.
- Subsequent diplomatic statements or security actions from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey regarding Houthi strikes.
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Trump Expects Iran Settlement as Ministers Push Deal
President Trump stated that the United States and Iran have held ongoing communications and expects a settlement to be reached, following a meeting with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham in New York. Meanwhile, ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey met on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly to push for an Iran-United States deal. These regional ministers also condemned recent Houthi strikes targeting Saudi Arabia and emphasized that diplomacy is the only viable path to resolve regional tensions and protect maritime navigation safety.
Why it matters
The diplomatic push by Middle Eastern and South Asian nations coincides with direct remarks from Washington regarding bilateral talks with Tehran. Senior officials gathered on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly to address escalating military operations and secure regional stability. Support for Riyadh's defense under the United Nations Charter highlights ongoing security concerns amid broader diplomatic maneuvers.
What is confirmed
- President Trump stated that the United States and Iran talked and that a settlement is going to be reached.
- Ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey met in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
- The regional ministers condemned attacks targeting Saudi Arabia, including recent Houthi strikes.
What to watch next
- Formal announcements or agreements stemming from the reported talks between the United States and Iran.
- Further diplomatic statements from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey regarding regional security.
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (4)
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Kazakhstan President Congratulates Putin After State Duma Elections
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan congratulated Vladimir Putin following the elections for Russia's ninth State Duma. Tokayev stated the results show wide support for Putin's strategic course to protect Russia's national interests. He expressed confidence that the new Duma members will strengthen Russia's status as a global power and improve citizen well-being. Tokayev also noted that cooperation between the two nations' parliaments remains a key element of the alliance between Kazakhstan and Russia.
Why it matters
The State Duma is the lower house of the Russian parliament. These elections follow a period of geopolitical tension and internal political shifts within Russia. Kazakhstan's public endorsement signals continued diplomatic alignment between Astana and Moscow.
What is confirmed
- Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev congratulated Russian President Vladimir Putin on the State Duma elections.
- Tokayev described the elections as an important event in the social and political life of Russia.
What to watch next
- Official certification of the final State Duma seat distribution
- Further diplomatic responses from Central Asian leaders
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (2)
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Global Security and Legal Developments Update
Donald Trump announced an agreement regarding the US military presence in Greenland, which Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Nuuk Prime Minister Jens-Frederick Nielsen praised in a joint declaration as a reaffirmation of Danish sovereignty and Arctic security. Meanwhile, voter turnout in the election for Russia's 9th State Duma reached 45.1 percent according to the Russian Central Election Commission. In Italy, forensic criminologist Anna Vagli was indicted for aggravated defamation by Lucca Court judge Nidia Genovese following an article regarding the Garlasco crime. US embassies in the Middle East also issued security alerts regarding potential rapid escalation from Iranian-supported Houthis.
Why it matters
The agreement on Greenland resolves tensions stemming from previous annexation threats while reinforcing Arctic defense cooperation between Copenhagen, Nuuk, and Washington. In Russia, the parliamentary election process continues under the oversight of the Central Election Commission. Legal proceedings in Italy move forward regarding public commentary on historical criminal cases.
Still unconfirmed
- Forensic criminologist Anna Vagli has been indicted for aggravated defamation against Alberto Stasi by Lucca Court judge Nidia Genovese.
- Donald Trump announced an agreement on the US military presence in Greenland that reaffirms Danish sovereignty over the territory.
- Voter turnout in the election to the 9th Russian State Duma reached 45.1 percent as of 7:50 a.m. Moscow time according to the Russian Central Election Commission.
- US embassies in the Middle East issued a security alert warning that military conflict involving Iranian-supported Houthis has the potential to escalate rapidly.
What to watch next
- Forensic criminologist Anna Vagli's appearance before Judge Antonella Frizilio on November 6
- Further updates from the Russian Central Election Commission regarding final State Duma election turnout and results
confidence 50%Sources used for this update (4)
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One in three Australians doubt US defense guarantees against China
One in three Australians believe the United States would not defend them during a Chinese attack. This level of skepticism remains unchanged from previous reporting. While regional security and procurement policies continue to intersect across the Pacific, no new polling or security data has emerged to shift public sentiment regarding Washington's security commitments. Current regional tensions are highlighted by parliamentary questions regarding the Fiji-Australia Vuvale Union Treaty and whether Fiji can maintain access to affordable generic medicines from China and India.
Why it matters
Public trust in US security guarantees is a critical component of Australian strategic planning. The intersection of defense policies and bilateral trade agreements in the Pacific influences how regional partners balance relations between Western allies and China.
What to watch next
- New polling data on Australian public sentiment regarding US security guarantees
- Official updates on the Fiji-Australia Vuvale Union Treaty regarding medicine procurement
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Australians Doubt US Defense Commitments Amid Regional Treaty Discussions
One in three Australians doubt the United States would defend their country in the event of a Chinese attack, remaining unchanged from previous reporting. Meanwhile, regional discussions highlight the implications of bilateral agreements, such as the Fiji-Australia Vuvale Union Treaty, which has raised parliamentary questions about whether Fiji can continue sourcing affordable generic medicines from external markets like India and China. While defense and procurement policies intersect across the Pacific, no new polling or security data has emerged to alter the established public sentiment regarding Washington's security guarantees.
Why it matters
Public skepticism in Australia regarding American military intervention reflects broader anxieties about regional stability and great power competition in the Indo-Pacific. Bilateral pacts like the Vuvale Union Treaty are under legislative scrutiny to determine how deep economic and security integration affects national autonomy in trade and public health. Understanding these dynamics requires examining both public trust in alliances and the restrictive clauses found in formal state treaties.
What is confirmed
- One in three Australians doubt the US would defend their country if China attacks.
Still unconfirmed
- The Fiji-Australia Vuvale Union Treaty could prevent Fiji from sourcing more affordable generic medicines from countries such as India and China.
What to watch next
- Release of updated public polling data on Australian defense confidence
- Official parliamentary responses regarding medicine procurement under Article 3.4 of the Vuvale Union Treaty
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (6)
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No new data on Australian perceptions of US defense against China
Current intelligence provides no updated information regarding the proportion of Australians who doubt US military support in the event of a Chinese attack. Recent reports focus on unrelated developments, including German security measures for critical infrastructure and weather patterns in Italy. No new polling data or official statements have been released to modify the previously reported figure of one in three Australians doubting US defense commitments.
Why it matters
Public confidence in US security guarantees is a key indicator of regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. This sentiment directly affects Australian strategic planning and diplomatic relations with both Washington and Beijing.
What to watch next
- Release of new public opinion polls regarding US-Australia security ties
- Official statements from the Australian Department of Defence on US alliance reliability
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (4)
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US missile strike on Iranian oil tanker raises regional tensions
A US missile hit a small Iranian oil tanker four miles from Kharg island on September 8, according to Iranian media. No casualties were reported in the strike. The incident has pushed oil prices close to 100 USD. In response, Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi warned that Tehran will attack US bases in the region if further attacks on Iranian oil tankers occur. This escalation follows reports of two explosions in the port city of Jask near the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters
The strike occurs as Western nations face foreign-influence operations and regional instabilities. Tensions are high across multiple fronts, including distrust in US defense commitments in Taiwan and ongoing diplomatic frictions in the Middle East.
What is confirmed
- A US missile hit a small Iranian oil tanker four miles from Kharg island on September 8.
- Oil prices have risen to near 100 USD following US strikes near Kharg island.
Still unconfirmed
- Ali Abdollahi stated that any attack on Iranian oil tankers will result in an attack on US bases in the region.
What to watch next
- Official US government confirmation or denial of the missile strike
- Iranian military action against US regional bases
- Further fluctuations in global oil prices linked to Strait of Hormuz stability
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (7)
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US Intelligence Identifies Foreign Influence Operations in Gaza Conflict
US intelligence assessments state the Gaza conflict has created conditions that are uniquely productive for foreign-influence operations within the West. This finding emerges as Australia continues to debate its security posture and the feasibility of military containment against China. While previous reports focused on Australian calls for diplomatic shifts, current intelligence highlights a broader pattern of political warfare led by Russia and China to exploit regional instabilities for influence in Western nations.
Why it matters
Australia is currently weighing whether its security reliance on the US is sustainable amid a regional power shift toward China. This internal debate occurs as global powers use active conflicts to conduct strategic influence campaigns.
Still unconfirmed
- Russia and China are leading political warfare against Israel.
What to watch next
- Further US intelligence disclosures regarding specific foreign-influence tactics in the West
- Australian government responses to intelligence on regional political warfare
confidence 70%Sources used for this update (6)
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Australia urged to prioritize diplomacy over China containment
Australia faces calls to shift its strategy toward China by pursuing diplomacy and economic ties instead of military containment. This comes as the region adapts to China's increasing power and concerns persist regarding the feasibility of winning a military confrontation. While the US continues to project force in other regions, such as vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz open against Iran, the debate in Australia centers on whether its current security posture is sustainable given the regional power shift.
Why it matters
Previous reports indicated one in three Australians doubt the US would defend them during a Chinese attack. This skepticism stems from rising regional tensions and instability in US democracy. The current debate examines if Australia should move toward a more open-eyed approach to its relationship with Beijing.
Still unconfirmed
- Australia should respond to China's power with diplomacy and stronger economic ties rather than a military confrontation it cannot hope to win.
What to watch next
- Official Australian government responses to calls for diplomatic shifts
- Changes in US-Australia defense agreements
- New polling on Australian public opinion regarding China
confidence 70%Sources used for this update (6)
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1 in 3 Australians doubt US would defend them if China attacks
A significant portion of Australians are skeptical about the US commitment to defend them in the event of a Chinese attack. This concern reflects growing unease about the reliability of the US-Australia alliance amid rising tensions between the US and China. Australians are also concerned about the state of US democracy, but these views have stabilized. The issue has sparked discussions about Australia's relationship with China and the need for a more open-eyed approach.
Why it matters
The doubts about US defense commitments come as Australia navigates its relationship with China, a critical trading partner. The US-Australia alliance has been a cornerstone of regional security, but perceptions of US reliability have been questioned. This skepticism is part of a broader debate about Australia's strategic priorities and its ability to scrutinize China without antagonizing it.
What is confirmed
- One in three Australians doubt the US would defend them if China attacks.
- Australians are concerned about the state of US democracy, but these views have stabilized.
What to watch next
- Australian government statements on US-Australia alliance
- China's response to Australia's concerns
- US actions to reassure Australia of its defense commitments
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (6)
- Politico — 1 in 3 Australians doubt US would defend them if China attacks
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