A new Bolsonaro could pull Brazil away from Europe

Live updates

1. 50m ago

   Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro head to runoff election on October 25

   President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face off in a presidential runoff election on October 25 after neither candidate secured a majority vote. Recent polling shows a tight race, with Datafolha placing Lula ahead by 3 points while an Atlas poll shows the candidates tied. A victory for Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, could shift Brazil's foreign policy away from the European Union and toward the United States under Donald Trump, potentially disrupting EU-Mercosur trade relations.

   Why it matters

   The election pits the center-left incumbent against the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest for a 2023 coup attempt. The result will determine if Lula becomes the most-elected politician in Brazilian history or if the far-right returns to power. This transition carries significant implications for global trade and environmental policy.

   What is confirmed

   • Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro will face a runoff election on October 25.
   • Former President Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest following a coup attempt.
   • Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
   • Datafolha polling shows Lula leading Bolsonaro by 3 points in a runoff scenario.
   • An Atlas poll shows Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in a runoff scenario.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The Trump administration is increasing efforts to tilt the election in favor of Flavio Bolsonaro.
   • Flavio Bolsonaro is described as a lackluster and uncharismatic copy of his father.

   What to watch next

   • The runoff election results on October 25
   • Changes in EU-Mercosur trade negotiations following the result
   Sources used for this update (25)

   1. www.politico.eu — European Parliament - POLITICO
   2. politico.eu — A new Bolsonaro could pull Brazil away from Europe — and toward Trump
   3. The Guardian — The Guardian view on Lula v the Bolsonaros: the decision of Brazilian voters will affect us all | Editorial
   4. Jacobin — Brazil’s Presidential Election Is Going Down to the Wire
   5. The Hill — An anti-American president seeks a fourth term in Brazil
   6. Reuters — Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro still tied in presidential runoff scenario, Atlas poll shows
   7. NPR — Picanha, prices and politics: What Brazil's favorite steak says about the election
   8. Reuters — Brazil vote approaches with Lula and Bolsonaro polling in close race
   9. GZERO Media — Corruption scandals are rocking Brazil. Will they decide the presidential election?
   10. Reuters — Lula leads Bolsonaro by 3 points in Brazil runoff scenario, Datafolha poll shows
   11. Bloomberg.com — Lula, Bolsonaro Neck and Neck Days Before Brazil Vote, Poll Shows
   12. ko.crimethinc.com — “If Bolsonaro wins, they kill us; if Lula wins, they let us die.”
   confidence 90%