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A new trade war may be brewing. This time, Europe is taking a page from Trump's playbook

The US and EU have established a new trade framework to lower tariffs and strengthen economic ties. This follows threats from President Trump to impose 100% taxes on countries targeting US digital services. Recent talks between Ursula von der Leyen and Trump in Scotland helped avert a broader trade war.

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The US and EU reached a tariff deal after Trump threatened 100% taxes on imports from countries taxing US digital services.

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  1. US and EU Reach Tariff Agreement Amid Digital Tax Tensions

    The US and EU have established a new trade framework to lower tariffs and strengthen economic ties. This follows threats from President Trump to impose 100% taxes on countries targeting US digital services. Recent talks between Ursula von der Leyen and Trump in Scotland helped avert a broader trade war.

    What's confirmed:

    • The US and EU reached a trade agreement to reduce tariffs and increase exports.
    • Ursula von der Leyen met with Trump at his Scottish golf resort.
    • President Trump threatened a 100% tax on imports from countries that tax digital services from US companies.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • A trade war is brewing between Europe and China.
    confidence 90%
  2. EU Considers New Trade Measures to Counter China Shock

    European leaders are addressing a growing trade imbalance with China. The EU plans to develop a diversification instrument and a new law to drive de-risking. Some member states are pushing for the adoption of tariffs and quotas similar to those used by the US.

    What's confirmed:

    • China's goods trade surplus with the EU reached 360.6 billion euros in 2025.
    • President von der Leyen is pursuing a diversification instrument and a diversification law to reduce reliance on China.
    • EU leaders are seeking unity to address the trade imbalance with China.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Germany is backing a French push for US-style tariffs and quotas.
    • The trade gap between China and the EU expanded by 10% in the first four months of 2026.
    • EU leaders have asked Brussels to create new trade weapons to counter the China shock.
    confidence 80%