Arab states see hawks ruling Israel no matter who wins vote, but still sense room for change

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1. 1h ago

   Arab States See Israeli Hawks Prevailing Despite Tight Election

   Arab states anticipate hawkish leadership in Israel regardless of the outcome in the upcoming October 27 election, though regional observers still sense potential room for policy shifts. Public opinion polls indicate a tight race with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing strong challenges, including from rival Gadi Eisenkot who has opened up a lead in recent surveys. Neither major political bloc has secured a clear Knesset majority in polling, leaving Arab-led and ultra-Orthodox parties positioned as critical kingmakers. Far-right parties are also projected to make notable gains.

   Why it matters

   The October 27 vote serves as a vital referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu and his handling of the October 7 crisis. Voters face a distinct choice over whether the country's hard-right political turn will become permanent. Arab-led parties and expat voters could heavily influence the final tally and alter the balance of power.

   What is confirmed

   • Israel's election is scheduled for October 27.
   • Gadi Eisenkot holds a lead over Benjamin Netanyahu in recent polling.
   • Neither major political bloc has secured a clear Knesset majority in polls.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Arab states believe hawks will rule Israel regardless of who wins the election.

   What to watch next

   • Final voter turnout figures among Arab citizens on October 27.
   • Official election results determining if either bloc reaches a Knesset majority.
   Sources used for this update (25)

   1. The New York Times — An Israeli Election Like No Other
   2. The Economist — The expat voters who could help unseat Netanyahu
   3. The Times of Israel — ToI poll: Eisenkot opens up big lead on Netanyahu, but both blocs short of majority
   4. Al Jazeera — The Israeli politicians seeking to replace Netanyahu
   5. The Telegraph — If Netanyahu is defeated this month, the Israel-haters won’t let up one bit
   6. The Times of Israel — Arab states see hawks ruling Israel no matter who wins vote, but still sense room for change
   7. Yahoo — In shadow of war, Israelis to decide if hard-right turn is permanent
   8. The Economist — Infighting ahead of Israel’s election
   9. The Jerusalem Post — Israel’s election puzzle: Why are so many voters still backing Netanyahu? - opinion
   10. The Jerusalem Post — Blocs struggle to reach Knesset majority in polls, as Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu
   11. NPR — Elections in Israel will be a verdict on Netanyahu's handling of October 7
   12. www.middleeastmonitor.com — Israel’s election: The Arab vote and Netanyahu’s politics of ...
   confidence 90%