'Black Box' Revenue From Anthropic and OpenAI Stumps Traders

Live updates

1. 1h ago

   AI Revenue Confusion Stumps Traders

   Uncertainty surrounds the financial metrics of artificial intelligence leaders OpenAI and Anthropic as traders struggle to interpret opaque revenue figures. OpenAI forecasted this year's revenue at $50 billion, which falls significantly short of the $70 billion previously signalled to the market. The discrepancy highlights differing cloud accounting methods used by the private firms, sparking a steep drop across major artificial intelligence and chip stocks including Nvidia, Oracle, and Micron.

   Why it matters

   Investors rely heavily on annualized revenue run-rates to gauge growth in the artificial intelligence sector. Because both OpenAI and Anthropic operate as private companies, their differing calculations create a black box that obscures their true financial health. The recent revenue surprise exposed vulnerabilities in how the market tracks these firms, triggering widespread accounting confusion and damaging investor confidence.

   What is confirmed

   • OpenAI's annualized revenue is $20 billion less than previously signalled.
   • OpenAI forecasts this year's revenue at $50 billion, falling short of the $70 billion previously signalled.
   • AI stocks including Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave, and Micron fell following the OpenAI revenue report.
   • OpenAI and Anthropic calculate their closely watched revenue figures differently.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Appetite for OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will remain strong despite negative headlines.

   What to watch next

   • Further disclosures or clarifications from OpenAI and Anthropic regarding their specific cloud accounting methods.
   • Market performance of artificial intelligence chip stocks and related equities following the revenue disclosures.
   Sources used for this update (16)

   1. Financial Times — OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled
   2. CNBC — Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report
   3. Reuters — OpenAI's annualized revenue $20 billion less than previously signaled, FT reports
   4. Yahoo Finance — Appetite for OpenAI, Anthropic IPOs will be strong despite some negative headlines: Ives
   5. Yahoo Finance — OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026
   6. MarketWatch — Micron, Nvidia and AI chip stocks fall as report on OpenAI’s revenue causes ‘undue concern’
   7. The Information — OpenAI ARR Snafu Highlights Flawed Metric
   8. The New York Times — The Fallout From OpenAI’s Revenue Surprise
   9. Bloomberg.com — 'Black Box' Revenue From Anthropic and OpenAI Stumps Traders
   10. Futurism — AI Bubble Teetering on the Brink as OpenAI Admits to Massive Financial Failure in Leaked Documents
   11. Barron's — $50B? $70B? How OpenAI’s Accounting Confusion Wrecked the AI Trade
   12. Axios — OpenAI annualized revenue $20 billion less than previously reported
   confidence 100%