Bond Yields at 5% Mark New Era 'Until Something Breaks'

Live updates

1. 7d ago

   10-Year Treasury Yields Hold Near 5% as I Bond Rates Hit 5.51%

   The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5%, a level it has maintained for 20 days. Current market conditions place pressure on stock valuations, as the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio sits between 18 and 19 times. For valuations to remain stable under the Fidelity Timmer framework, earnings growth must continuously offset these rising yields. Meanwhile, I bonds now offer a rate of 5.51%. Analysts suggest bond investors are tightening financial conditions independently, which may reduce the necessity for the Federal Reserve to implement additional rate hikes.

   Why it matters

   High yields coincide with oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel and falling stock prices. This environment reflects growing investor anxiety regarding national deficits and inflation. The shift suggests a transition where the bond market, rather than central bank policy, drives financial tightening.

   What is confirmed

   • The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering around 5%.
   • I bonds are paying 5.51%.
   • The S&P 500 forward P/E sits at roughly 18 to 19 times.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Earnings growth must continuously offset yield rises to prevent valuation pressure under the Fidelity Timmer framework.

   What to watch next

   • Changes in the yield spread
   • Federal Reserve decisions on interest rate hikes
   • Fluctuations in S&P 500 forward P/E ratios
   Sources used for this update (4)

   1. www.cnbc.com — I bonds pay 5.51%: What to know before buying - CNBC
   2. www.gate.com — U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Above 5%: How Long Can ...
   3. jen.jiji.com — Sustainability: absorbent products, ecodesign for more efficient recycling (2)
   4. jen.jiji.com — Nessy Guerra: "My ex-husband arrested for our safety, fantastic news"
   confidence 90%
2. 9d ago

   Treasury Yields Hover Near 5% as Markets Weigh Financial Pressures

   The 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5 percent following a recent market sell-off, with yields holding above that threshold for 20 days without derailing broader economic growth. Analysts debate the implications of the high yields, as oil tops $100 a barrel and stocks fall amid rising concerns over inflation and deficits. While some experts view the elevated rates as a troubling sign of the road ahead, top economists suggest bond investors are effectively tightening financial conditions independently, potentially removing the need for further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

   Why it matters

   High bond yields serve as a primary transmission belt affecting mortgage rates, currency valuations, and broader equity markets across the financial system. The persistence of 5 percent yields highlights ongoing tension between government borrowing demands and shifting monetary policy expectations. Investors currently face a complex environment marked by simultaneous pressures in fixed income and commodity markets.

   What is confirmed

   • The US 10-year Treasury yield is near 5 percent following a market sell-off.
   • The 10-year Treasury note topped 5 percent for the first time since 2003 outside of 2003 and 2007.
   • Oil topped $100 a barrel while stocks fell amid concerns over inflation and deficits.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield has done the job of tightening financial conditions in the economy ahead of the next Fed meeting according to Mark Zandi.

   What to watch next

   • The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting and interest rate decision
   • Movements in mortgage rates and corporate bond issuance trends
   Sources used for this update (16)

   1. www.wionews.com — US Treasury yields cross 5% as Scott Bessent warns of ... - WION
   2. www.theguardian.com — AI godfather Geoffrey Hinton: ‘We’re creating alien beings. I’m willing to be selfish and choose humans’ | Donald Trump
   3. www.bitget.com — Propland Price Prediction , PROPrice Prediction 2025
   4. www.businessinsider.com — A top economist says bond investors are doing the Fed's job, and more rate hikes aren't needed
   5. admiralmarkets.com — Why the Bond Market Drives Every Other Market
   6. www.crfb.org — 5% Interest Rates Are a Troubling Sign of the Road Ahead
   7. www.texaspolicy.com — Exploring The Texas Housing Market: Conditions, Constraints and Capacity for Development
   8. www.chosun.com — 5% Yield Doesn't Derail U.S. Economy - 조선일보
   9. sherwood.news — SpaceX buying is out of this stratosphere - Sherwood News
   10. www.cnbc.com — Corporate bonds: Why it may be one of best times in history ...
   11. jen.jiji.com — Cobolli reassures everyone: "Small muscle strain, I'll do everything possible to play in Paris"
   12. investinglive.com — Bond market tensions ease but Treasury yields near 5% and ...
   confidence 90%
3. 15d ago

   Bond Yields Hit 5% Mark, New Era 'Until Something Breaks'

   The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36%, its highest level since 2002. Expectations for higher interest rates, federal borrowing, and demand for financing AI investments drive the bond market. Analysts debate whether this is a return to normal conditions or a warning sign. The market awaits the Federal Open Market Committee's expected funds rate increase.

   Why it matters

   The recent surge in bond yields has significant implications for the economy, as higher interest rates can impact borrowing costs and investment decisions. This development comes as the Federal Open Market Committee prepares to announce its expected funds rate increase. The bond market's performance is closely watched by investors and policymakers, as it can influence the overall direction of the economy.

   What is confirmed

   • The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36% at an intraday high, its highest level since 2002.
   • Best savings accounts currently offer 5% easy access or 5.33% fixed rate.
   • U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Friday following a sharp drop the previous session.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The Treasury Is Holding Nearly $40 Billion in Savings Bonds Nobody Cashed

   What to watch next

   • Federal Open Market Committee's funds rate increase announcement
   • release of additional economic data
   • movement of Treasury yields
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. www.moneysavingexpert.com — Best savings accounts: 5% easy access or 5.33% fixed rate
   2. www.cnbc.com — Treasury yields rise as traders await more economic data ...
   3. www.moneytalksnews.com — The Treasury Is Holding Nearly $40 Billion in Savings Bonds Nobody Cashed - Money Talks News
   4. reason.com — Open Thread - Reason Magazine
   5. www.basketballinsiders.com — Best Cricket Betting Apps - Get $5,000 in Free Bets at the Top Sites
   confidence 75%
4. 17d ago

   Bond Yields Hit 5% Mark, New Era 'Until Something Breaks'

   The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36% at an intraday high, its highest level since 2002. Expectations for higher interest rates, federal borrowing, and demand for financing AI investments are driving the bond market. Analysts debate whether this is a return to normal conditions or a warning sign. The market awaits the Federal Open Market Committee's expected funds rate increase on October 28.

   Why it matters

   The recent surge in bond yields has sparked discussion among analysts about its implications for the market and investors. This development comes as the market also contends with AI-related concerns pressuring technology stocks. The Federal Open Market Committee is set to increase the funds rate on October 28, following a quarter-point hike on September 16.

   What is confirmed

   • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently climbed to 5.36% at an intraday high, its highest level since 2002.
   • Expectations for higher interest rates, federal borrowing and demand for financing AI investments are putting the bond market in focus.

   What to watch next

   • Federal Open Market Committee's funds rate increase on October 28
   • further developments in AI investments and their impact on the bond market
   Sources used for this update (4)

   1. help.naver.com — Futures Flat As Oil Rebounds After Trump's "Energy Ceasefire" Unravels, Memory Stocks Slide | ZeroHedge
   2. www.tradingkey.com — Today’s Market Recap: OpenAI Revenue Concerns; Nasdaq Falls 1.25%, AAOI Drops 13.58%, Brent Gains 4.07%
   3. www.cnbc.com — Why 10-year Treasury yields are rising above 5% - CNBC
   4. economictimes.indiatimes.com — iPhone Duo internal display break: Are iPhone Duo displays too fragile? Users report alarming cracks near hinge - The Economic Tim....
   confidence 100%
5. 21d ago

   10-Year Treasury Yields Reach Highest Level Since 2002

   The 10-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level since 2002, prompting debate among analysts on whether the asset is now a buy. While some market participants view this as a return to normal conditions, others see a warning sign not seen in decades. Recent AI-related concerns are currently pressuring technology stocks and pushing yields lower. This volatility occurs as the market awaits the Federal Open Market Committee's expected funds rate increase on October 28, following a quarter-point hike on September 16.

   Why it matters

   The current environment mirrors bond market conditions from 1994. This shift marks a potential end to the era of cheap money that persisted after 2008. The Federal Reserve is managing this transition amid broader global tightening cycles.

   What is confirmed

   • The 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest level since 2002.
   • The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to increase the funds rate on October 28.
   • A quarter-point rate hike occurred on September 16.

   Still unconfirmed

   • AI worries are sending yields lower while pressuring tech stocks.

   What to watch next

   • Federal Open Market Committee funds rate decision on October 28
   • Further movement in the 10-year Treasury yield relative to the 5.2% September peak
   Sources used for this update (9)

   1. gardnermagazine.com — Local News Greater Gardner MA Schools – Gardner News Magazine: Local News & Articles in Gardner MA
   2. www.fool.com — The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Not Seen in Decades ...
   3. www.thatwastheweek.com — Venture Opportunities - Hidden in Plain Sight
   4. www.bankless.com — ROLLUP: Redtober Is Here | AI Debt Fears | $102M Ledger Attack | Richard Heart Arrested | Bankless
   5. pro.thestreet.com — The Week Ahead: The Rotation Continues
   6. advisoranalyst.com — Bonds At 5%: Is The 10-Year Treasury Finally A Buy ...
   7. gianlucabenigno.substack.com — Central Bank Commentary (September-26): Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank
   8. jen.jiji.com — Iran-US, signs of tension: Washington recalls personnel from embassies in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar
   9. jen.jiji.com — Pichetto Fratin: "Data centers, adequate networks and rules for authorizations are needed"
   confidence 90%
6. 24d ago

   FOMC Expected to Raise Funds Rate on October 28

   The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to increase the funds rate on October 28. This follows a period where the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5.2% in late September and a quarter-point rate hike on September 16. Market participants continue to debate if these yields represent a return to normal conditions or a permanent departure from the cheap money era that followed 2008. The current environment draws comparisons to the bond market conditions of 1994.

   Why it matters

   High bond yields impact borrowing costs and investment strategies across Wall Street. The current trend follows the worst bond bear market in modern history. Analysts are monitoring whether the market faces a crisis or a stabilization of returns.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The FOMC shall raise the funds rate on October 28.

   What to watch next

   • FOMC rate decision on October 28
   • Changes in the 10-year Treasury yield
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. en.wikipedia.org — List of James Bond films - Wikipedia
   2. www.fidelity.com — What Is a Bond? - Fidelity
   3. www.personalinvesting.jpmorgan.com — What is a Bond? Types, Yields, Risks & How Bonds Work - J.P....
   4. sonar21.com — My Latest Presentation to the UN Security Council
   5. goldseek.com — Gold Basing Against Its Short Trend’s Tracing | GoldSeek
   confidence 70%
7. 26d ago

   Bond Market Reaches Dangerous Milestone Amid Yield Surge

   The 10-year Treasury yield persists at levels last seen in 2002 after crossing the 5.2% mark at the end of September. Following the worst bond bear market in modern history and a quarter-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee on September 16, Wall Street draws heavy comparisons to 1994. Investors debate whether these elevated returns signal a permanent exit from the post-2008 cheap money era or act as another market trap. Analysts at Motley Fool suggest the bond market may not face a crisis but could instead be returning to normal conditions.

   Why it matters

   This dramatic yield surge forces a reassessment of fixed-income assets as viable alternatives to equities. Market participants are split on the long-term implications of these historically high borrowing costs. The ongoing shifts test portfolio strategies across institutional and retail investing communities.

   What is confirmed

   • The 10-year Treasury yield closed September north of 5.2%, persisting at levels last seen in 2002.
   • The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point on September 16.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The bond market might not be on the verge of a crisis and could simply be returning to normal.

   What to watch next

   • Further Federal Open Market Committee rate decisions and macroeconomic data releases
   • Treasury yield movements relative to the 5% threshold
   Sources used for this update (8)

   1. realinvestmentadvice.com — Bonds At 5%: Is The 10-Year Treasury Finally A Buy?
   2. www.markets.com — Markets
   3. sonar21.com — A Thimble for a Flood: Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal… Why the announced volumes barely register against....
   4. www.fool.com — The Bond Market Just Reached a Dangerous Milestone. Here's ...
   5. seekingalpha.com — Patient Capital Management Q3 2026 Commentary
   6. www.iheart.com — ONE THIRD OF TRUMP '24 VOTERS ABANDON HIM AS MIDTERMS LOOM -10.12.26
   7. cobak.co — Will the KOSPI 12,000 Era Arrive? The Future of the Korean Stock Market in 2027 Forecasted by Yuanta Securities | Crypto Community....
   8. wiki.avakot.org — Preludes 16 - The Soulframe Wiki
   confidence 100%
8. 29d ago

   10-Year Treasury Yield Holds Above 5% Following Fed Rate Hike

   The 10-year Treasury yield closed September north of 5.2%, persisting at levels last seen in 2002 after the Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point on September 16. This ongoing yield surge follows the worst bond bear market in modern history. Wall Street draws comparisons to 1994, the year the bond market previously broke, as investors weigh whether these high yields signal a permanent departure from the post-2008 era of cheap money or merely represent another market trap.

   Why it matters

   The persistence of high bond yields marks a fundamental departure from the prolonged era of ultra-low interest rates that followed the 2008 financial crisis. Government bonds function as debt instruments issued to finance current expenditures and long-term investments, obligating debtors to provide regular interest payments and principal repayment at maturity. The Federal Reserve's rate hike on September 16 was its first since 2023, injecting renewed volatility into fixed-income markets driven by heavy debt, inflation, and fiscal deficits.

   What is confirmed

   • The 10-year Treasury yield closed September north of 5.2%.
   • The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point on September 16.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Wall Street remembers 1994 as the year the bond market broke.

   What to watch next

   • Whether yields remain above 5% or retreat from current highs
   • Further Federal Reserve monetary policy actions regarding interest rates
   Sources used for this update (6)

   1. en.wikipedia.org — Bond (finance) - Wikipedia
   2. www.schwab.com — What Is a Bond? Understanding Bond Types and How They Work
   3. home.treasury.gov — Bonds and Securities | U.S. Department of the Treasury
   4. www.mexc.co — MEXC Digest #46: Party Like It's 1994
   5. silverseek.com — The COMEX Silver Drain Continues | SilverSeek
   6. seekingalpha.com — Bonds At 5%: Is The 10-Year Treasury Finally A Buy?
   confidence 90%
9. 34d ago

   Bond Yields Surpass 5% Mark, Signaling New Era

   US Treasury yields remain above 5%, with the 10-year yield at 5.26%, last seen in 2002. This persistence signals a shift away from the post-2008 era of cheap money, driven by fiscal deficits, inflation, and heavy debt. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point on Sept. 16.

   Why it matters

   The recent surge in bond yields has significant implications for the economy, affecting mortgage rates, credit cards, auto loans, and housing. This shift in borrowing costs is driven by federal budget deficits and a broader reset in the price of capital. The new bond regime has sparked concerns about its impact on global markets.

   What is confirmed

   • The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002.
   • The UK 30-year gilt yield reached around 6.03%, its highest since 1998.
   • US Treasury yields remain above 5%, with the 10-year yield at 5.26%.
   • The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed north of 7%, hitting 7.03% as of October 8th.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Britain needs a bonds crisis

   What to watch next

   • Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates
   • US Treasury's auction of long-term bonds
   • Housing market trends in response to rising mortgage rates
   Sources used for this update (6)

   1. www.foxbusiness.com — 10-year Treasury yield hits 2002 high, raising mortgage and ...
   2. learndofinance.com — The New Bond Regime: What Surging Sovereign Yields Mean for ...
   3. naumanstrategicpartners.com — 5% Treasury Yields: Is It Finally Time to Add Duration?
   4. www.thetechedvocate.org — 7.03% Mortgage Rate: Is This the Start of a Housing Market Crash?
   5. unherd.com — Britain needs a bonds crisis - UnHerd ,think again
   6. capwolf.com — Why Treasury Yields Above 5% Are Not A Fiscal Apocalypse Yet
   confidence 85%
10. 36d ago

    Bond Yields Hit 5% Mark, Signaling New Era

    US Treasury yields remain above 5%, with the 10-year yield at 5.26%, last seen in 2007. This persistence signals a shift away from the post-2008 era of cheap money, driven by fiscal deficits, inflation, and heavy debt. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point on Sept. 16. Equity indices faced pressure, while some markets bounced on comments from a Federal Reserve official stating no urgency for further rate hikes.

    Why it matters

    The recent surge in bond yields has significant implications for the economy, as it may lead to higher borrowing costs and impact consumer spending. The 5% yield threshold is a crucial milestone, as it can affect the attractiveness of stocks and bonds. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates has contributed to the increase in yields. The market is now waiting to see how the economy will respond to these changes.

    What is confirmed

    • The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.26%, a level last seen in 2007.
    • The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point on Sept. 16.
    • Mortgage rates have climbed over 7%, causing homeowners with rates below 4% to retain their loans.

    Still unconfirmed

    • The recent inflation report came in below forecasts, which may impact future interest rate decisions.

    What to watch next

    • The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision
    • The release of future inflation reports
    • The impact of higher yields on equity indices and consumer spending
    Sources used for this update (3)

    1. weissratings.com — What 5% Treasury Yields Are Really Telling Us, and Where the ...
    2. articles.stockcharts.com — The 5% Treasury Yield: It's Here and How It'll Affect Stocks
    3. www.home.saxo — The FX Trader Pressure on Euro eases for the moment at least | Saxo
    confidence 90%
11. 38d ago

    Treasury Yields Sustain 5% Threshold as Market Volatility Rises

    US Treasury yields remain above 5%, with the 10-year yield reaching 5.243%. This persistence signals a shift away from the post-2008 era of cheap money, driven by fiscal deficits, inflation, and heavy debt. While equity indices faced pressure and the S&P 500 closed September in the red, some markets bounced on comments from a Federal Reserve official stating there is no urgency for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, mortgage rates have climbed over 7%, causing homeowners with rates below 4% to retain their loans.

    Why it matters

    High yields increase borrowing costs for governments and consumers globally. The current trend challenges the financial stability of debtors and creates volatility in equity markets. This environment puts pressure on homeowners and increases the risk of a market breaking point.

    What is confirmed

    • The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.243%.
    • US Treasury yields are at multi-year highs.
    • Mortgage rates have risen above 7%.
    • The S&P 500 ended September in the red.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Oil prices fluctuated based on headlines regarding Iran.

    What to watch next

    • Further Federal Reserve commentary on the urgency of rate hikes
    • Data on the percentage of homeowners refinancing or defaulting as mortgage rates stay above 7%
    Sources used for this update (12)

    1. www.bankless.com — ROLLUP: The Bull Market is On? | Zcash & NEAR | Kalshi Wash Trading | BlackRock Goes Onchain | Bankless
    2. pro.thestreet.com — Resurgent Yields Drive Stocks Lower to Start the Week
    3. carnegieendowment.org — Battery Ecosystems: A Comparative Analysis of Lithium-Ion Tech Policy | Carnegie Endowment for Internatio....
    4. pro.thestreet.com — Equity Indices End Lower, But Bounce on Hopes For More Restrained Fed
    5. note.com — Hacker News Japanese Commentary 2026/10/01 | Today's Highlight: The Field Decision to Retract the Anti-MCP Stance
    6. www.gulf-times.com — tag - Gulf Times
    7. jen.jiji.com — Latvia votes with Russia's shadow, Premier Kulbergs aims for reconfirmation /Adnkronos
    8. finance.yahoo.com — 'Something Will Break': Ross Gerber Sounds Alarm as Treasury ...
    9. finance.yahoo.com — Poland to Pay Up to $4.4 Billion for Fort Trump, Report Says
    10. wolfstreet.com — Homeowners Are Clinging to their Below-4% Mortgages for Dear Life as Mortgage Rates Went over 7% | Wolf S....
    11. www.chosun.com — U.S. Treasury Yields' 5% Era Persists Long-Term - 조선일보
    12. www.wionews.com — US bond yields surge above 5.2%: Is the era of cheap money ...
    confidence 90%
12. 43d ago

    Bond Yields Breach 5% as Global Financial Pressures Mount

    Global financial markets face intense turbulence as US Treasury yields surge past 5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.21% while the 30-year yield touched 5.4%, reaching their highest levels since 2007 and 2004. This rapid escalation coincides with rising oil prices and persistent inflation concerns, driving US stock futures lower. Meanwhile, Japan's two-year government bond yield rose to 1.969%, marking a 31-year high and fueling anxiety over the potential unwinding of the yen carry trade.

    Why it matters

    The sharp increase in borrowing costs threatens corporate refinancing walls and alters capital flows worldwide. Central bank stances and rising debt burdens add to the mounting economic strain across international markets. At the same time, high-level diplomatic engagements between the US and China aim to stabilize trade, with agreements for China to purchase millions of tons of US coal.

    What is confirmed

    • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.21% and the 30-year yield touched 5.4% this week.
    • China agreed to import at least 10 million metric tons of coal from the US next year and again in 2028, according to the White House.
    • The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds rose to 1.969%, reaching its highest level in over 31 years.
    • Larry Ellison has pledged 67 million more shares of Oracle Corp. as collateral for personal loans than he had at the same time last year.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Chinese leader Xi Jinping is pushing to lock in more favorable terms on Taiwan and trade during the current diplomatic detente.

    What to watch next

    • Further movements in US Treasury yields and their impact on corporate debt refinancing
    • Potential policy responses from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates
    • Developments in the US-China trade agreements and coal purchase timelines for 2027 and 2028
    Sources used for this update (7)

    1. finance.yahoo.com — US Says China to Buy 10 Million Tons of Coal in 2027 and 2028
    2. fortune.com — The S&P 500’s ‘biggest risk’ is companies’ ‘debt refi wall’ as bond yields top 5%
    3. finance.yahoo.com — Ellison Pledges $9.2 Billion More in Oracle Shares as Collateral
    4. uk.finance.yahoo.com — Xi Seizes Trump Detente to Seek Lasting Gains on Trade, Taiwan
    5. cobak.co — Japan's 2-year government bond yield hits 1.969%... Highest in 31 years fears of yen carry trade unwindin....
    6. www.archyde.com — Bond Yields at 5% Mark New Era Until Something Breaks
    7. curiouscats.ai — Bond yields at 5% mark a new era 'until something breaks' as ...
    confidence 100%
13. 45d ago

    US 30-Year Bond Yield Rises to Highest Since 2004 Amid Selloff

    The US 30-year bond yield has climbed to its highest level since 2004, extending a deep global government bond selloff. Financial market turbulence is intensifying as the 5 percent yield mark ushers in what analysts describe as a new era. Observers warn that rapid rate increases historically trigger financial calamities until something breaks. The ongoing market stress coincides with expanding cracks in financial markets and rising national debt burdens. Volatility across Treasury markets continues to alter global diversification strategies and capital flows.

    Why it matters

    Rapid increases in government bond yields carry a long history of preceding financial calamities, raising systemic concerns across global markets. The United States debt has surpassed forty trillion dollars, reshaping how international investors handle portfolio currencies and long-term debt diversification. Market participants are increasingly monitoring whether central banks are losing grip on long-term borrowing costs as volatility persists.

    What is confirmed

    • The US 30-year bond yield rose to its highest level since 2004 as the selloff deepened.
    • Treasury bond yields resumed their march higher to end the week.

    Still unconfirmed

    • CIFC stated that the Federal Reserve may be losing control of long-term Treasury yields.

    What to watch next

    • Further movements in long-term Treasury yields toward or past the 5 percent mark
    • Any official policy interventions or statements from the Federal Reserve regarding market volatility
    • Evidence of systemic financial distress or institutional failures resulting from elevated rates
    Sources used for this update (14)

    1. Reuters — US 30-year bond yield rises to highest since 2004 as selloff deepens
    2. AP News — Why bond yields are rising and why everyone should care
    3. Bloomberg.com — Bond Yields at 5% Mark New Era 'Until Something Breaks'
    4. The Age — The Trump effect: Why cracks are widening in financial markets
    5. Jacobin — Treasury Market Volatility Is Capital Disciplining the State
    6. Adam Tooze | Substack — Chartbook 475: After the dollar as reserve currency, the (profit) dollar as a “portfolio currency”.
    7. CEOWORLD magazine — US Debt Above $40 Trillion Is Reshaping the Global Diversification Trade
    8. Moomoo — U.S. Treasuries Not Even in the Top Four! Chart Analysis: Which Countries Led the Global Sell-Off in Long-Term Bonds Over the Past Year?
    9. voronoiapp.com — Ranked: Countries Where Bond Yields Are Rising Fastest
    10. bloomingbit — CIFC Says Fed May Be Losing Control of Long-Term Treasury Yields
    11. Investing.com — A Violent Treasury Rejection Could Be the Rates Pivot Gold Has Been Waiting For
    12. Axios — No end to the sell-off in government bonds
    confidence 95%