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Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are essentially tied in the presidential election, according to multiple polls. Lula has 40% and Flavio Bolsonaro has 36% in the first round, with a two-point margin of error. In a runoff scenario, Lula has 47% and Flavio Bolsonaro has 45%. The polls indicate a tight contest between the two candidates.

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  • ✓ Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in the presidential election polls.
  • ✓ Lula has 40% and Flavio Bolsonaro has 36% in the first round of voting.
  • ✓ In a runoff scenario, Lula has 47% and Flavio Bolsonaro has 45%.
  • ✓ The margin of error in the polls is two points.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 10 independent reporting domains (85% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Recent polls from various sources, including Reuters and Al Jazeera, continue to show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, with some polls giving Lula a slight edge within the margin of error.

Live updates

  1. Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied

    Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are essentially tied in the presidential election, according to multiple polls. Lula has 40% and Flavio Bolsonaro has 36% in the first round, with a two-point margin of error. In a runoff scenario, Lula has 47% and Flavio Bolsonaro has 45%. The polls indicate a tight contest between the two candidates.

    Why it matters

    The Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. Lula is seeking a fourth term, while Flavio Bolsonaro is attempting to avenge his ex-president father. The cost of living and economic issues have been significant concerns for voters, potentially impacting Lula's reelection bid.

    What is confirmed

    • Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in the presidential election polls.
    • Lula has 40% and Flavio Bolsonaro has 36% in the first round of voting.
    • In a runoff scenario, Lula has 47% and Flavio Bolsonaro has 45%.
    • The margin of error in the polls is two points.

    What to watch next

    • The first round of voting on October 4, 2026
    • Further poll releases in the coming days
    • Economic data releases that could impact voter sentiment
    Sources used for this update (11)
    1. Al Jazeera — Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll
    2. Bloomberg.com — Lula, Bolsonaro in Dead Heat Amid Fresh Banco Master Revelations
    3. The Economist — Brazil’s next president will either be a vengeful nepo-baby or a doddering leftie
    4. Reuters — Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro remain tied in runoff scenario, Atlas poll shows
    5. The Conversation — Elections in Brazil: A subdued, digital campaign heightens uncertainty about the results
    6. Reuters — Lula holds thin lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows
    7. dw.com — Lula da Silva or Flavio Bolsonaro as president? Brazil gears up to vote
    8. usnews.com — In Brazil, Frustration Over Cost of Living Undermines Lula's Reelection Bid
    9. www.as-coa.org — Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election | AS/COA
    10. www.aljazeera.com — Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in ...
    11. valorinternational.globo.com — Lula, Flávio remain statistically tied 10 days before election
    confidence 85%
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