CNBC Daily Open: Crude flows back at prewar levels, but at what cost?
Crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to prewar baselines, averaging 13.5 million barrels per day according to research from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Kpler. Despite this recovery in crude supply, refined product shipments remain constrained at approximately one fifth of prewar levels. This imbalance has pushed diesel prices to record highs at the pump, maintaining pressure on global inflation and commerce. While oil benchmarks have eased, the recovery relies on U.S. military protection of tankers in the Persian Gulf.
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- ✓ Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.5 million barrels per day.
- ✓ Refined product shipments remain constrained at nearly one fifth of prewar levels.
- ✓ West Asia crude oil flows have reached 98% of prewar levels.
- ✓ Research on Hormuz transit volumes was provided by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Kpler.
What changed
Seven-day average crude flows hit 13.5 million barrels per day, matching prewar baselines.
Live updates
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Crude flows through Strait of Hormuz return to prewar levels
Crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to prewar baselines, averaging 13.5 million barrels per day according to research from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Kpler. Despite this recovery in crude supply, refined product shipments remain constrained at approximately one fifth of prewar levels. This imbalance has pushed diesel prices to record highs at the pump, maintaining pressure on global inflation and commerce. While oil benchmarks have eased, the recovery relies on U.S. military protection of tankers in the Persian Gulf.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit point for global energy. Sustained high fuel costs threaten global economic stability even as raw crude flows normalize. Current shipping risks include war-risk premiums between 7.5% and 10%.
What is confirmed
- Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.5 million barrels per day.
- Refined product shipments remain constrained at nearly one fifth of prewar levels.
- West Asia crude oil flows have reached 98% of prewar levels.
- Research on Hormuz transit volumes was provided by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Kpler.
Still unconfirmed
- The U.S. and Iran are talking separately to mediators to end the conflict.
- Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Tankers are running lights-off to avoid detection.
What to watch next
- Iran's response to the latest U.S. proposal
- Policymaker decisions regarding diesel export interventions
- Sustainability of tanker protection provided by the U.S. military
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (15)
- www.cnbc.com — Oil prices flat as Middle East supply concerns persist - CNBC
- CNN — Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever
- WSJ — Oil Rises as Supply Concerns Persist Despite Middle East Crude Exports Recovering to Prewar Levels
- The New York Times — Oil Is Flowing From the Persian Gulf, but Prices Remain High. Why?
- www.cnbc.com — Hormuz oil shipments at prewar levels but fuel shipments constrained
- CNBC — CNBC Daily Open: Crude flows back at prewar levels, but at what cost?
- Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com — Middle East Oil Exports Stage a Remarkable Comeback
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- www.cnbc.com — CNBC Daily Open: Crude flows back at prewar levels, but at what cost?
- www.wavebrowsernews.com — CNBC Daily Open: Crude flows back at prewar levels, but at ...
- www.cnbctv18.com — Brent at $98; Oil prices steady as investors weigh ... - CNBCTV18
- www.europesays.com — CNBC Daily Open: Crude flows back at prewar levels, but at ...
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