Copper Hits Record Highs While Smelters Lose Money on Every Ton
Global copper smelters face severe margin pressure as spot treatment and refining charges plunge to negative $237.8 a ton. A concentrate shortage has suspended 2 million tonnes of smelting capacity globally, driving Korean smelter LS MnM to weigh production adjustments. Meanwhile, copper prices remain range bound due to cautious trading, potential US tariffs, higher oil prices, and record high US inventories. Despite these headwinds, copper is up 15.8% for the year, supported by artificial intelligence, grid demand, and national security requirements. Goldman Sachs projects copper prices will average $15,400 a ton in 2027.
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- ✓ Spot treatment and refining charges hit negative $237.8 a ton.
- ✓ Copper prices are up 15.8% in 2026.
- ✓ Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to average $15,400 a ton in 2027.
- ✓ A copper concentrate shortage has suspended 2 million tonnes of smelting capacity.
What changed
Global mine supply fell for the first time since 2017 while spot treatment and refining charges hit negative $237.8 a ton.
Live updates
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Copper Smelters Suffer Negative Treatment Charges Amid Shortages
Global copper smelters face severe margin pressure as spot treatment and refining charges plunge to negative $237.8 a ton. A concentrate shortage has suspended 2 million tonnes of smelting capacity globally, driving Korean smelter LS MnM to weigh production adjustments. Meanwhile, copper prices remain range bound due to cautious trading, potential US tariffs, higher oil prices, and record high US inventories. Despite these headwinds, copper is up 15.8% for the year, supported by artificial intelligence, grid demand, and national security requirements. Goldman Sachs projects copper prices will average $15,400 a ton in 2027.
Why it matters
The global copper sector is experiencing a structural squeeze driven by the first drop in mine supply since 2017 and ongoing mining disruptions compounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While byproduct revenue from sulfuric acid has helped mask the crisis, smelters lose money on every ton produced under current market conditions. China continues to tighten its smelting capacity controls and suffers from a scrap shortage that sustains demand for refined copper, even as higher inventories in the United States cap price gains.
What is confirmed
- Spot treatment and refining charges hit negative $237.8 a ton.
- Copper prices are up 15.8% in 2026.
- Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to average $15,400 a ton in 2027.
- A copper concentrate shortage has suspended 2 million tonnes of smelting capacity.
- Global mine supply fell for the first time since 2017.
Still unconfirmed
- Non-ferrous companies are expected to see a sequential decline in earnings, with revenue and Ebitda expected to fall 2% and 13% respectively.
- LS MnM is considering adjusting copper concentrate purchases and production to protect profitability.
- Available copper stocks hit a two-month peak following substantial inflows tied to the resolution of a major strike at a Chilean mine.
What to watch next
- Decisions by LS MnM and other global smelters regarding output adjustments and concentrate purchases.
- Implementation or policy updates regarding potential US tariffs and their impact on global supply chains and shipping costs.
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (5)
- www.coppermachinery.com — Copper Smelting Industry October 2026: Record Negative TC/RCs ...
- investingnews.com — Copper Price Trends: Q3 2026 Review and Forecast | INN
- www.koreatimes.co.kr — LS MnM weighs output adjustments as copper concentrate ...
- economictimes.indiatimes.com — copper lme News and Updates from The Economic Times - Page 1
- www.cnbc.com — Why copper prices could withstand an AI spending slowdown - CNBC
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Copper Smelters Face Negative Charges Amid Supply Crunch
Copper smelters face extreme margin pressure as treatment and refining charges plunge to a record negative $237.8 a ton. Chinese smelters are paying miners record fees due to a concentrate shortage that has suspended 2 million tonnes of smelting capacity. Meanwhile, copper prices remain range bound amid caution over potential US tariffs and higher oil prices. China faces a copper scrap shortage that supports refined copper demand, while record high US inventories limit price gains. Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to average $15,400 a ton in 2027.
Why it matters
The severe squeeze on smelting capacity highlights a widening gap between soaring refined metal prices and the operational viability of processing plants. While mine supply tightens and forces production cuts, macroeconomic factors like US trade policy and inflation risks create a cautious trading environment. Financial institutions project continued price strength heading into next year despite current inventory buffers.
What is confirmed
- Chinese copper smelters are paying miners record negative treatment charges due to a concentrate shortage.
- Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to average $15,400 a ton in 2027.
Still unconfirmed
- Treatment and refining charges have reached negative $237.8 a ton with 2 million tonnes of smelting capacity suspended.
What to watch next
- Developments regarding potential US tariffs and inflation risks from higher oil prices
- Shifts in Chinese copper scrap shortages and refined copper demand
- Progression of the suspended smelting capacity and mine supply constraints
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (3)
- www.coppermachinery.com — Copper Smelting Industry 2026: Negative TC/RC Crisis, Mine ...
- dailydigestinvest.com — Copper smelters pay miners record fees as concentrate ...
- economictimes.indiatimes.com — copper tariff: Latest News & Videos, Photos about copper ...
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Copper Prices Near Record Highs Amid Chilean Supply Disruptions
Copper prices are approaching all-time highs, closing at $14,537 on October 9 after a 1.64% daily rebound. Supply disruptions in Chile, including a landslide at El Teniente and strike threats at La Escondida, are tightening available metal. Demand is driven by AI data centers, a recovery in Chinese import demand, and US stockpiling, which has reached 1.1 million tonnes. While prices remain strong, US interest rate expectations and dollar trajectories may limit short-term growth. Smelters continue to face margin pressure despite the rising market value of the finished metal.
Why it matters
The global copper market is strained by a mismatch between surging tech-driven demand and unstable production in Chile, the world's largest producer. This volatility affects the entire supply chain, from miners to smelters. US tariffs and strategic stockpiling further reshape North American market dynamics.
What is confirmed
- Copper prices closed at $14,537 on October 9.
- Supply disruptions in Chile are pushing copper prices toward record highs.
- AI demand and US stockpiling are influencing the copper market.
- US copper inventories have reached 1.1 million tonnes.
Still unconfirmed
- The El Teniente landslide has contributed to prices holding near 14,500 USD per tonne.
- La Escondida faces a potential mine strike.
- UBS, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank reported London copper futures closed near $14,622 on October 9.
What to watch next
- Outcome of potential strike actions at the La Escondida mine
- Changes in US interest rate expectations and dollar value
- Official confirmation of new US copper duties
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (8)
- finance.yahoo.com — Copper prices near record highs over threat of Chile mine strike
- resourceminingstocks.com — Copper Nears Record Highs as Chile Supply Disruptions Meet AI ...
- www.gate.com — Copper Approaches Record Highs at $14,622/Ton; UBS Warns ...
- www.tradingkey.com — Copper Price Forecast: Copper Nears Record High, Chilean Mine ...
- www.scrapmonster.com — Copper Nears Record as U.S. Stockpile Hits 1.1M Tonnes
- www.strategicrevenueinsights.com — Copper Near Record as Tariff Clock and Mine Outages Bite
- minelistings.com — Copper Prices Surge Near Record Highs - minelistings.com
- www.economies.com — Copper rises for third straight session amid supply ...
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Copper Hits Record Highs Amid Smelter Margin Pressure
Copper prices have reached record highs, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) price hitting $13,387.50/ton, driven by supply deficits, AI data center demand, and US tariffs. However, smelters are facing significant margin pressure due to low treatment charges (TCs), with some paying miners at -$126.80 per tonne. This has resulted in smelters losing money on every ton of copper produced.
Why it matters
The global copper market is experiencing a perfect storm of supply constraints and increasing demand, driven by the growth of AI data centers and electric vehicles. The market fundamentals remain strained due to historically low inventories, US stockpiling, and constrained mine supply. This has led to a sharp tightening of global supply, with competition for spot metal intensifying.
What is confirmed
- Copper hit a record $13,387.50/ton on the LME.
- Smelters are facing significant margin pressure due to low treatment charges (TCs).
- Treatment charges have collapsed, with some smelters paying miners at -$126.80 per tonne.
- Citigroup targets $15,000 a ton by year-end 2026.
- Deutsche Bank projects copper could reach $22,050 per metric ton by Q2 2027.
Still unconfirmed
- US tariffs are shaping copper prices.
What to watch next
- November 2026 policy deadlines
- Global copper supply and demand dynamics
- TC/RC inversion and its impact on the market
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (8)
- www.accio.com — Copper Concentrate Price 2026: Trends & Outlook - accio.com
- wallstreetlogic.com — Copper Hit a Record, Then Blinked. The Story Under the Price ...
- adalytica.com — LS MnM Faces Smelting Margin Pressure on Low TCs
- startupfortune.com — Copper Hits Record Highs as AI Data Centers Collide With ...
- tradingeconomics.com — Commodity Copper News 494583 - TRADING ECONOMICS
- silmarilmedia.com — The Price Discovery Crisis: How Copper's TC/RC Inversion ...
- economictimes.indiatimes.com — copper shortage: Latest News & Videos, Photos about copper ...
- www.theglobeandmail.com — Barlow’s Research Roundup: Top picks in copper miners as ...
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Copper Prices Pull Back as Tariff Concerns Ease
Copper prices dropped significantly on the London Metal Exchange and COMEX futures fell, narrowing their premium over LME prices after reports indicated no movement on potential tariffs. The White House is evaluating concerns over rising manufacturing costs, prompting a broader downturn across LME metals. Despite this pullback, market fundamentals remain strained by historically low inventories, United States stockpiling, and constrained mine supply. Deutsche Bank projects copper could reach $22,050 per metric ton by Q2 2027, with available global supply facing sharp tightening by 2028 as competition for spot metal intensifies.
Why it matters
The metal previously touched a record $14,875 per metric ton on September 10, climbing roughly 48% year-on-year alongside a historic zero-dollar benchmark for treatment and refining charges. Rapid expansion in Chinese smelting capacity outpaced global mine supply, forcing independent smelters to process ore for free while overall demand surged from electrification, data center cooling, and advanced manufacturing. Policy interventions, including United States tariffs and strategic stockpiling, now heavily influence ongoing price volatility.
What is confirmed
- Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell substantially from its previous record high, while COMEX copper futures also dropped.
- The White House is evaluating worries about rising manufacturing expenses.
- Other LME metals experienced similar downturns alongside copper.
Still unconfirmed
- Deutsche Bank expects copper to reach $22,050 per metric ton by Q2 2027.
- Supply available to global users could tighten sharply by 2028.
- Copper prices could surge further as historically low inventories, US stockpiling and constrained mine supply intensify competition for spot metal.
- Copper hit a record high of $6.83/lb in 2026.
What to watch next
- Decisions from the White House regarding potential US tariffs on copper
- Movements in London Metal Exchange and COMEX copper inventories
- Actual trajectory of global mine supply availability through 2027 and 2028
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (3)
- fxnx.com — Why Copper Hit a Record High in 2026: Tariffs & AI | FXNX
- www.economies.com — Copper News | Copper News Today | Copper Today | Copper Rates ...
- economictimes.indiatimes.com — lme copper trends: Latest News & Videos, Photos about lme ...
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Copper Prices Hit All-Time High as Smelter Fees Drop to Zero
Copper reached a record price of $14,875 per metric ton on the LME on September 10, rising roughly 48% year-on-year. Despite this surge, the 2026 annual treatment and refining charge benchmark settled at $0 per tonne, the lowest in history. This imbalance stems from Chinese smelting capacity expanding faster than global mine supply, forcing independent smelters to process ore for free to maintain operations. Demand remains high due to electrification, data center cooling, and advanced manufacturing, though mining companies require even higher prices to offset financial risks and address supply shortfalls.
Why it matters
The shift in value from smelters to miners reflects a structural concentrate squeeze. China produces over half of the world's refined copper but faces a shortage of raw ore. This disparity has pushed some overseas smelters to suspend their operations.
What is confirmed
- Copper hit an all-time high of $14,875 per metric ton on the LME on September 10.
- The 2026 annual copper smelter treatment and refining charge benchmark settled at $0 per tonne.
- China accounts for over half of global refined copper production.
- Copper demand is driven by electrification, data center equipment, and advanced manufacturing.
- Chinese smelting capacity has expanded more rapidly than global copper ore supply growth.
Still unconfirmed
- Mining companies will need prices to go much higher before they see profit in addressing supply shortages.
What to watch next
- Further suspensions of overseas smelting operations
- Changes in US and allied policy responses to copper processing economics
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (7)
- economictimes.indiatimes.com — Dow Jones| Nasdaq | US Stock Market Today | Live: Nasdaq rises over 1% to hit record on softer jobs data; Europe to release diesel reserves
- www.gulf-times.com — tag - Gulf Times
- www.csis.org — Restoring the Economics of Copper Processing - CSIS
- www.wionews.com — China’s copper output nears limit amid ore shortage and ...
- metropolitandigital.com — Global copper demand outstrips supply, threatening ...
- silmarilmedia.com — Zero at the Floor: Copper Smelter TC/RCs Hit an All-Time Low ...
- blog.rkequity.com — Read this if you don’t want to lose money on Copper
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Copper Hits Record Highs as Smelters Operate at Loss
Copper prices are near record highs, with prices just $92 shy of the record, driven by tight supply, shrinking stockpiles in Shanghai and London, and robust demand from electrification. Smelters are operating at a loss on every ton produced due to sharply fallen treatment charges. High-grade miners hold market leverage amid supply tightness.
Why it matters
The copper market is experiencing extreme volatility due to tight supply and strong demand driven by artificial intelligence technology and electrification projects. Over 1 million tonnes of copper remain stockpiled, but Goldman Sachs estimates a fair value of $11,500 per ton. The market is also influenced by US-China trade tensions and rare earth shipments.
What is confirmed
- Copper hit a record $6.83/lb on September 22, 2026.
- Copper futures in the US traded near $6.70 per pound, close to the record high of $6.80 touched on September 8th.
- Treatment charges have fallen to zero as supply tightens sharply, leaving smelters operating at a loss on every ton produced.
- China's rare earth shipments to the US dropped 21% in August.
Still unconfirmed
- Operations were suspended at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile after an accident resulted in the death of a worker.
What to watch next
- US-China trade talks and their impact on copper supply
- Cobre Panama's restart-to-close plan and its effect on supply
- Q4 copper price outlook and potential supply risks
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (7)
- oilprice.com — Copper Erases Tariff Selloff as Shanghai Stockpiles Hit Three-Year Low | OilPrice.com
- oilprice.com — Beijing Tightens Rare Earth Flow Ahead Of Washington Summit With Trump | OilPrice.com
- startupfortune.com — Copper Hits a Record $6.83 a Pound as Mine Disasters Choke ...
- discoveryalert.com — Copper Price Outlook Q4: Supply Risks After Record High
- tradingeconomics.com — Copper Holds Near Record High - TRADING ECONOMICS
- www.chemanalyst.com — China's Copper Smelters Face Unprecedented Profit Squeeze as ...
- www.newsbreak.com — Copper Recovery Hits 82.6%, and the Bigger Tests Are Running ...
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Copper Sits Near Record Highs as Supply Disruptions Loom
Copper prices remain 1.7 percent below their record high while the concentrate market shifts in favor of miners. Treatment charges have fallen to zero as supply tightens sharply, leaving smelters operating at a loss on every ton produced. Meanwhile, high-grade miners hold the market leverage. This volatility follows a period of extreme price spikes driven by tight supply and artificial intelligence technology demand, though over 1 million tonnes remain stockpiled and Goldman Sachs estimates fair value at $11,500 per ton.
Why it matters
The sharp shift in concentrate supply highlights the growing disconnect between raw material shortages for processing facilities and the broader metal market. High-grade miners now command the leverage, squeezing processing margins even as overall inventories stay high. This dynamic keeps market sentiment unstable as traders weigh high stockpiles against ongoing operational disruptions.
What is confirmed
- Copper prices sit 1.7% below their record high.
- Copper concentrate supply has tightened sharply, pushing treatment charges to zero.
Still unconfirmed
- Escondida has suspended operations and a Centinela strike vote looms.
- Copper prices dropped 4.7% after reaching a record high of $14,875 per ton as momentum for US tariffs stalled.
- Over 1 million tonnes of copper are currently stockpiled.
- Goldman Sachs estimates the fair value of copper at $11,500 per ton.
What to watch next
- Resolution of the Escondida operations suspension
- Results of the Centinela strike vote
- Shifts in treatment charges and miner leverage
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (3)
- discoveryalert.com — Why Copper Prices Are Falling Despite a Record-High Quarter
- www.cnbc.com — Supply glut, lab-grown alternatives: What's behind the fall of diamond prices to record lows
- discoveryalert.com — Why the Copper Concentrate Market Has Flipped in Miners’ Favour
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Copper Prices Fall 4.7% After Hitting Record $14,875 per Ton
Copper prices dropped 4.7% after reaching a record high of $14,875 per ton as momentum for US tariffs stalled. Despite the peak, over 1 million tonnes are currently stockpiled. This volatility follows a period where tight supply and AI technology demand drove prices up, even as smelters operated at a loss. Market sentiment remains unstable, with Goldman Sachs estimating the fair value of the metal at $11,500 per ton.
Why it matters
Mining stocks previously reacted sharply to tariff policy updates, causing drops for Freeport-McMoRan, Teck Resources, and Southern Copper. The industry faces a contradiction where high market prices coexist with operational losses for processors.
What is confirmed
- Copper prices hit a record $14,875 per ton.
- Copper prices fell 4.7% following a stall in US tariff momentum.
- On September 8, 2026, copper on the London Metal Exchange reached an all-time high of $14,694 per ton.
Still unconfirmed
- Goldman Sachs sees the fair value of copper at $11,500 per ton.
- Over 1 million tonnes of copper are stockpiled.
What to watch next
- US government decisions on copper tariffs
- Updates on the operational status of the Freeport-McMoRan mine in Central Papua
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (2)
- discoveryalert.com — Copper Hits Record $14,875, Then Drops 4.7% on Tariff Stall
- note.com — Why did Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock hit a record high in the year its main mine was shut down? — If you isolate the 9 days between the earnings report and the ac…
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Copper Prices Hit Records Amid Supply Tightness and Smelter Losses
Copper prices reached record highs driven by tight supply and demand from AI technology, though the rally recently paused due to slumping Chinese imports. While prices soar, smelters are losing money on every ton processed. The sector remains volatile; a recent policy update regarding tariffs triggered a sharp sell-off in mining stocks, with Freeport-McMoRan falling 8% and Teck Resources and Southern Copper dropping 7%. Analysts suggest the commodity may still have more growth potential despite current tariff uncertainty.
Why it matters
Copper is essential for AI infrastructure and electrical grids. A projected drop in mine supply, the first since 2017, is tightening the market. This creates a paradox where the raw commodity value rises while processing facilities face financial losses.
What is confirmed
- Copper prices have reached new record highs.
- AI is driving increased demand for copper.
Still unconfirmed
- Smelters are losing money on every ton of copper.
- Mine supply is heading for its first drop since 2017.
- China's copper imports have slumped.
What to watch next
- Operational details of the new tariff policy
- China import data updates
- Mine supply reports for 2026
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (6)
- Bloomberg.com — Copper Ascends to New Heights on Tight Supply and Tariff Fears
- Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com — Copper Hits Record Highs While Smelters Lose Money on Every Ton
- Yahoo Finance — Copper just soared to new records — and could still have 'more left in the tank': Chart of the Day
- CNBC — AI is fueling copper demand. Kevin Simpson thinks this volatile miner is worth the risk
- Mining.com — Copper price pauses below record as China's imports slump, mine supply heads for first drop since 2017
- finance.yahoo.com — Copper Stocks Tumble as Tariff Doubt Reverses Record Rally: Freeport-McMoRan Sinks 8%, Teck Resources and Southern Copper Drop 7%
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