Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levels

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1. 1h ago

   Middle East crude oil exports return to pre-war levels

   Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war volumes. JPMorgan analysts report a 10-day average of 17.5 million barrels per day, representing 98% of pre-war levels. Recovery is driven by U.S. military protection of tankers, the use of shuttle tankers, and Saudi Arabia resuming flows through a pipeline that bypasses the Strait. Despite this rebound, global oil supply remains below demand and refined product flows, specifically diesel and gasoline, remain constrained.

   Why it matters

   War began in February 2026 after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, leading Iran to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. The region is critical because approximately 20% of global oil passes through this waterway. Continued instability and Houthi activity in the Red Sea keep Brent crude prices near $100 a barrel.

   What is confirmed

   • Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have largely returned to pre-war levels.
   • Saudi Arabia resumed oil flows through a pipeline that avoids the Strait of Hormuz.
   • Refined petroleum products such as diesel and gasoline remain constrained.
   • The U.S. military is providing protection for tankers in the Persian Gulf.
   • JPMorgan analysts estimate Middle East crude exports at a 10-day average of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels.

   Still unconfirmed

   • G7 nations will release 100 million barrels from reserves to lower diesel prices.

   What to watch next

   • Outcome of deadlocked peace talks between the US and Iran
   • G7 coordinated action to reduce petroleum product prices
   • Verification of reports regarding increased tanker attacks in the Strait
   Sources used for this update (23)

   1. CNN — Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever
   2. www.nytimes.com — Mideast Oil Exports Rebound Even as Prices Remain Elevated
   3. finance.yahoo.com — Oil Holds Loss as Middle East Exports Seen Near Pre-War Level
   4. WSJ — Oil Rises as Supply Concerns Persist Despite Middle East Crude Exports Recovering to Prewar Levels
   5. The New York Times — Oil Is Flowing From the Persian Gulf, but Prices Remain High. Why?
   6. www.cnbc.com — Hormuz oil shipments at prewar levels but fuel shipments constrained
   7. Yahoo Finance — Persian Gulf crude oil flows have largely recovered. For diesel and gasoline, it's more complicated.
   8. The Guardian — Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levels
   9. Foreign Policy — Oil Is Again Flowing Out of Hormuz
   10. www.theguardian.com — Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre ...
   11. finance.yahoo.com — Crude Oil Prices Surge on Possible Escalation of US-Iran War
   12. www.theguardian.com — G7 to release 100m barrels from reserves to combat surging diesel prices – as it happened
   confidence 90%