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Dan Ives Sees Tesla-SpaceX Merger at $500 a Share

Wall Street analyst Dan Ives estimates an 80% to 90% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will merge by the end of 2027, according to recent financial reports. Ives values the potential corporate combination at over $500 per Tesla share, driven by a combined total addressable market exceeding $28 trillion. Elon Musk has publicly stated that merging the two companies would be a good idea as the rocket firm turns a profit. Tesla shares recently rose over 6% to reach an intraday high of $396.96, marking their highest level since July 13, following discussions around the potential deal.

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  • ✓ Dan Ives estimates an 80% to 90% probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger by the end of 2027.
  • ✓ Dan Ives states that a merger deal could value Tesla at over $500 per share.
  • ✓ Elon Musk stated that merging SpaceX and Tesla would be a good idea.
  • ✓ Tesla shares rose over 6% to an intraday high of $396.96 on October 26.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 18 independent reporting domains (90% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Analyst Dan Ives assigned an 80% to 90% probability to a Tesla-SpaceX merger by late 2027 with a target valuation exceeding $500 per share.

Live updates

  1. Dan Ives Projects Tesla-SpaceX Merger at $500 a Share

    Wall Street analyst Dan Ives estimates an 80% to 90% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will merge by the end of 2027, according to recent financial reports. Ives values the potential corporate combination at over $500 per Tesla share, driven by a combined total addressable market exceeding $28 trillion. Elon Musk has publicly stated that merging the two companies would be a good idea as the rocket firm turns a profit. Tesla shares recently rose over 6% to reach an intraday high of $396.96, marking their highest level since July 13, following discussions around the potential deal.

    Why it matters

    Speculation surrounding a union between the electric vehicle maker and the private aerospace company has intensified as Elon Musk attempts to solidify his broader conglomerate vision. Combining the two enterprises would create one of the largest corporate transactions in history, potentially granting Musk 56% control over the new entity. Observers note the merger would intertwine consumer automotive technology with commercial space exploration and satellite communications.

    What is confirmed

    • Dan Ives estimates an 80% to 90% probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger by the end of 2027.
    • Dan Ives states that a merger deal could value Tesla at over $500 per share.
    • Elon Musk stated that merging SpaceX and Tesla would be a good idea.
    • Tesla shares rose over 6% to an intraday high of $396.96 on October 26.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Kevin O'Leary claims a Tesla-SpaceX merger is inevitable following a flying Roadster demo.

    What to watch next

    • Official announcements or filings from Tesla or SpaceX regarding merger negotiations.
    • Further stock price movements and analyst reactions leading toward the 2027 timeframe.
    Sources used for this update (20)
    1. finance.yahoo.com — Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News
    2. seekingalpha.com — Patient Capital Management Q3 2026 Commentary
    3. contents.premium.naver.com — [잠옷입고 경제공부] 세계 무역지도를 바꿀 사건!
    4. www.tradingkey.com — Today’s Market Recap: OpenAI Revenue Concerns; Nasdaq Falls 1.25%, AAOI Drops 13.58%, Brent Gains 4.07%
    5. Bloomberg.com — Musk Tries to Lock In His Tesla-SpaceX Dream Before Trump’s Exit
    6. WSJ — SpaceX Takes Conglomerate-Building to Sci-Fi Extremes
    7. Financial Times — Musk’s bet of the century
    8. Forbes — Forbes Daily: Elon Musk’s Payday From A SpaceX And Tesla Merger
    9. Benzinga — Tesla-SpaceX Merger Stands at 80%-90% Chance, Dan Ives' $500 Price Tag Explains Why
    10. The Motley Fool — I Wouldn't Buy Tesla Stock Betting on a SpaceX Deal. Here's Why.
    11. Yahoo Finance — Kevin O’Leary Says Tesla-SpaceX Merger Is Inevitable After Flying Roadster Demo — ‘If You Own Tesla, You’re Gonna Own New Company’
    12. Euronews — Elon Musk backs SpaceX-Tesla merger as rocket firm turns profit
    confidence 90%
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