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Fed 'dot plot': Almost half of FOMC members project at least one interest rate hike this year

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in a unanimous 12-0 vote on June 17, 2026. This first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh revealed a hawkish turn in projections. Nine of 18 officials now expect at least one rate hike before the end of the year.

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What changed

New data confirms the June 17 meeting date, the unanimous vote, and the role of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair.

Live updates

  1. Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% as Dot Plot Shifts Toward Hikes

    The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in a unanimous 12-0 vote on June 17, 2026. This first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh revealed a hawkish turn in projections. Nine of 18 officials now expect at least one rate hike before the end of the year.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on June 17, 2026.
    • Kevin Warsh presided over the meeting as Fed Chair.
    • The committee voted 12-0 to keep rates steady.
    • Nine of 18 officials project at least one interest rate hike before the end of 2026.
    • The median projected federal funds rate for the end of 2026 is 3.8%.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Copper prices dropped more than 1% on June 18 following the announcement.
    confidence 95%

  2. Fed Dot Plot Shows Shift Toward Rate Hikes

    The Federal Reserve's June 2026 projections indicate a hawkish turn. Nine of 18 officials now expect interest rates to rise this year. The median projected fed funds rate is 3.8%.

    What's confirmed:

    • Nine out of 18 officials project rate hikes.
    • The median projection for the federal funds rate is 3.8%.
    • Chairman Warsh abstained from the dot plot.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • PCE inflation was revised to 3.6%.
    • This is the most hawkish pivot since 2022.
    • The median rate moved from 3.4% to 3.8%.
    confidence 90%

  3. Fed maintains rates as dot plot suggests potential October hike

    The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady for the fourth meeting of the year. New projections indicate a shift in expectations, with nearly half of FOMC members anticipating at least one rate increase. Two-year Treasury yields saw their biggest jump since April 9, 2025, following the press conference.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady during its June 17 meeting.
    • This marks the fourth consecutive policy meeting this year that rates remained unchanged.
    • Almost half of FOMC members project at least one interest rate hike this year.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • The dot plot signals a rate hike by October.
    • Two-year Treasury yields surged 13 bps in post-press conference Wednesday trading.
    • Trump stated he would let his new Federal Reserve chair do what he wants to do.
    confidence 90%

  4. FOMC Members Project Possible Rate Hikes for 2026

    The Federal Reserve kept interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% during its June 17 meeting. Projections show a median year-end target of 3.8%. Nearly half of FOMC members expect at least one rate increase this year.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% at its June 17 meeting.
    • Projections indicate a median year-end target of 3.8%.
    • Nearly half of FOMC members now expect at least one rate increase this year.
    confidence 100%

  5. Fed Dot Plot Shows Shift Toward Rate Hikes for 2026

    The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% at its June 17 meeting. New projections indicate a median year-end target of 3.8%. Nearly half of FOMC members now expect at least one rate increase this year.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve kept interest rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range during its June 17 meeting.
    • The June 2026 dot plot shows a median year-end rate projection of 3.8%.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Inflation rose to a three-year high of 4.2% due to higher energy prices.
    • Kevin Warsh chaired his first policy meeting on June 17.
    • Rate cuts are no longer being considered by central bankers.
    confidence 80%

  6. Fed Holds Rates as Dot Plot Signals 2026 Increase

    The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 17 meeting. However, the updated dot plot shows a median year-end rate projection of 3.8%. Nearly half of FOMC members now project at least one rate hike this year.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on June 17, 2026.
    • The 2026 median year-end rate projection rose to 3.8%.
    • Almost half of FOMC members project at least one interest rate hike this year.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • The Fed is responding to slower growth and an inflation surge.
    • Kevin Warsh attended his first meeting as chair.
    confidence 90%