Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.

Live updates

1. 9d ago

   Fed Governor Waller signals support for holding rates steady in September

   Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller is inclined to keep interest rates on hold at the September meeting, citing progress on inflation and urging that disinflation be given a chance. His dovish stance triggered a rally in stocks and bonds, causing Treasury yields to fall. Market odds for a September rate hike have dropped to 50%, according to Fundstrat Direct, though some officials continue to await further inflation data before deciding. Asian markets are also positioned for gains as oil pressures ease.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve determines US interest rate policy to balance economic growth and inflation. Waller's shift suggests a potential pause in the tightening cycle. This move influences global asset pricing and currency valuations, including the Japanese Yen.

   What is confirmed

   • Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller is inclined to keep interest rates on hold.
   • Waller noted progress on inflation and stated that disinflation should be given a chance.
   • Treasury yields fell following Waller's comments.
   • Stocks rallied in response to the Fed official's signals to hold rates steady.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Odds of a September rate hike have fallen to 50% and may move toward zero.
   • September is expected to be a contrarian bullish month.

   What to watch next

   • Upcoming inflation data reports
   • The Federal Reserve's official September interest rate decision
   Sources used for this update (13)

   1. Bloomberg.com — Asian Stocks Set to Advance as Oil Pressures Ease: Markets Wrap
   2. WSJ — Stock Market Today: Bonds Stabilize as Oil Slips; Yen Jumps — Live Updates
   3. Reuters — Fed's Waller channels his inner John Lennon with a plea to 'give disinflation a chance'
   4. Bloomberg.com — Treasuries Rise After Fed’s Waller Notes Progress on Inflation
   5. Financial Times — Federal Reserve’s Chris Waller ‘inclined’ to keep interest rates on hold
   6. The New York Times — Rate Rise in Play as Fed Officials Await Inflation Data
   7. WSJ — Stocks, Bonds Rally After Dovish Fed Comments
   8. CNBC — Fed Governor Waller indicates he will support holding rates steady at September meeting
   9. PBS — Fed governor Waller muddies outlook on possible rate hike later this month
   10. Fundstrat Direct — Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
   11. Reuters — COMMENTARY: Trading Day: Waller cools Fed hike hoopla
   12. WSJ — Stocks Rally After Fed Official’s Comments on Holding Rates Steady
   confidence 95%