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Fed rate cuts: Payrolls will weaken, inflation will plunge, and Warsh was 'largely performative'

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is prioritizing the fight against inflation and emphasizing the central bank's political independence. This stance follows a June jobs report showing only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls added. Warsh has signaled a focus on inflation over the maximum employment mandate.

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What changed

Warsh recently joined a panel at the ECB Forum in Portugal and reiterated that inflation remains too high.

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  1. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Maintains Hawkish Stance Amid Weak Jobs Data

    New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is prioritizing the fight against inflation and emphasizing the central bank's political independence. This stance follows a June jobs report showing only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls added. Warsh has signaled a focus on inflation over the maximum employment mandate.

    What's confirmed:

    • Kevin Warsh is the new Federal Reserve Chair.
    • Warsh stated that inflation is "too high" and a "choice".
    • The June jobs report showed 57,000 nonfarm payrolls were added.
    • Warsh has signaled a hawkish stance and emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve.
    • The unemployment rate moved to 4.2% in June.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Warsh's hawkish tone was largely performative to distance himself from the White House.
    • Warsh's solutions for financial market problems could be bad news for stock investors.
    • Trump will not get the rate cuts he wants from Warsh.
    confidence 90%