Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow: Reuters Poll

Live updates

1. 21d ago

   Fed Policymakers Signal Likelihood of Further Interest Rate Hikes

   Federal Reserve policymakers believe another interest rate hike is likely as prices rise, following the release of minutes from the September 15-16 policy meeting. Mortgage rates have surged to a three-year high of more than 7% in recent weeks amid a global bond sell-off. Traders previously estimated a 35% chance of an October rate hike after a positive US inflation report. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari previously projected one more hike this year and another in 2027, while J.P. Morgan warned that shock-driven inflation will maintain pressure on the central bank.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve operates as the independent central banking system of the United States, established in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act. Its responsibilities have expanded following historical economic crises such as the Great Depression and the Great Recession. Central bank officials must continuously balance inflation data against broader economic pressures when determining monetary policy.

   What is confirmed

   • The Federal Reserve released minutes from its Sept. 15-16 policy meeting on Wednesday.
   • Mortgage rates surged to a three-year high of more than 7% in recent weeks amid a global bond sell-off.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Economists in a Reuters poll say a Fed rate hike on Wednesday is now likely, with at least one more to follow.

   What to watch next

   • Further official announcements from Federal Reserve policy meetings
   • Subsequent changes in mortgage rates and bond market activity
   Sources used for this update (8)

   1. www.federalreserve.gov — Federal Reserve Board - Home
   2. www.usatoday.com — Interest rate decision live: Fed expected to hike rates as prices rise
   3. www.fedex.com — Track & Ship Online or Find Nearby Locations | FedEx
   4. en.wikipedia.org — Federal Reserve - Wikipedia
   5. fred.stlouisfed.org — Federal Reserve Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed
   6. www.fedex.com — Tracking Your Shipment or Packages | FedEx
   7. www.cnbc.com — Fed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when ...
   8. finance.yahoo.com — Fed Policymakers Think Another Interest Rate Hike Is Likely ...
   confidence 85%
2. 27d ago

   Fed rate hike probability drops amid conflicting inflation outlooks

   Traders now estimate a 35% chance of an October interest rate hike, a decrease from previous projections. This shift follows a positive US inflation report, though J.P. Morgan warns that shock-driven inflation will maintain pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expects one more hike this year and another in 2027. These diverging views leave the central bank's immediate path uncertain as policymakers balance inflation data against economic pressure.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve previously raised the policy rate to a range of 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent. Governor Michael Barr indicated that further hikes are necessary to reach the 2 percent inflation target.

   What is confirmed

   • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari anticipates one more rate hike this year and another in 2027.

   Still unconfirmed

   • J.P. Morgan forecasts that shock-driven inflation will keep pressure on the Fed to hike rates in the short term.
   • Traders see a 35% chance of an October rate hike, down from about 45% following White House pressure.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday
   • Upcoming jobs data reports
   Sources used for this update (3)

   1. finance.yahoo.com — J.P. Morgan sees Fed rate hikes going out with a bang this year
   2. www.theguardian.com — Good news in US inflation report boosts chances Fed won’t ...
   3. www.cnbc.com — Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari sees one more rate hike this ...
   confidence 70%
3. 29d ago

   Fed Rate Hikes Likely to Continue as Inflation Stays High

   Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that additional interest rate hikes will likely be needed to lower inflation toward the central bank's two percent goal. Following a unanimous decision by policymakers to raise the policy rate to the 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent range, markets now price in a 71 percent probability of an October rate increase. Wall Street is currently monitoring upcoming inflation and jobs data that will influence the next policy decision. Meanwhile, the Pentagon reported that the Iran war has cost the United States military at least $33.4 billion.

   Why it matters

   The central bank previously executed its first interest rate increase in three years by raising the rate a quarter percentage point, driven by elevated inflation and consumer prices that rose 3.4 percent annually in August. Strong economic growth and a solid labor market have prompted officials to recalibrate short-term borrowing costs. Sixteen of eighteen policymakers previously signaled the necessity of at least one more rate increase before the end of the year.

   What is confirmed

   • Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that further interest rate hikes will likely be needed to bring down inflation.
   • In a unanimous decision, Fed policymakers raised the policy rate to the 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent range.
   • Sixteen of 18 policymakers signaled the Fed would probably need to deliver at least one more rate hike before the end of this year.
   • The Pentagon reports the Iran war cost the U.S. military at least $33.4 billion.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Markets see a 71 percent chance of an October rate increase after Barr's remarks.
   • Barr's remarks suggest he feels at least two more rate hikes will be required.

   What to watch next

   • Upcoming inflation and jobs data releases
   • The Federal Reserve's next policy rate decision in October
   Sources used for this update (4)

   1. spectrumlocalnews.com — Federal Reserve raises interest rate a quarter percentage point, first hike in 3 years
   2. www.kitco.com — Fed's Barr says further rate hikes will likely be needed - KITCO
   3. finance.yahoo.com — Fed's Michael Barr backs more rate hikes as PMI hits 5-year high
   4. finance.yahoo.com — October Fed rate hike hinges on two looming economic reports
   confidence 90%
4. 40d ago

   Fed Rate Hike Signals Permanent Shift to Higher Inflation

   The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, marking the first increase in three years following predictions from Reuters-polled economists and Goldman Sachs analysts. Markets previously priced in a 92 percent probability of a quarter-point increase. Finance experts are evaluating subsequent hikes as the central bank tries to lower core costs and stabilize consumer prices, which rose 3.4 percent annually in August. Economists now say a Wednesday rate hike is likely, with at least one more to follow. Meanwhile, the Pentagon reports the Iran war cost the U.S. military at least $33.4 billion.

   Why it matters

   The recent Federal Reserve action signals an end to the low interest-rate and low-inflation environment that persisted for nearly 15 years after the Great Recession. A higher-priced and higher-rate economic landscape is now taking its place as policymakers respond to faster growth and stubborn inflation. Concurrently, the military costs of the Iran conflict continue to mount.

   What is confirmed

   • Consumer prices rose 3.4 percent annually in August.
   • The Iran war has cost the U.S. military at least $33.4 billion, mostly on munitions.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Economists say a Fed rate hike on Wednesday is now likely, with at least one more to follow.

   What to watch next

   • Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday regarding interest rate decisions.
   • Data releases concerning subsequent rate hike trajectories.
   Sources used for this update (2)

   1. www.yahoo.com — White House backs Hegseth as new details come out about Iran war's cost
   2. www.pbs.org — Federal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth
   confidence 90%
5. 44d ago

   Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates for First Time in Three Years

   The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates, marking the first such hike in three years. This action follows predictions from Reuters-polled economists and Goldman Sachs analysts who anticipated a September move to address stubborn inflation. Markets had previously priced in a 92% probability of a quarter-point increase. Finance experts are now evaluating the likelihood of subsequent hikes as the central bank attempts to lower core costs and stabilize consumer prices, which rose 3.4% annually in August.

   Why it matters

   The Fed uses rate hikes to cool the economy and reduce inflation. Persistent core costs have forced a shift in policy. This move ends a three-year period of stable or declining rates.

   What is confirmed

   • The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years.
   • August consumer prices rose 3.4% annually.

   Still unconfirmed

   • At least one additional rate hike will follow the September increase.
   • Markets priced in a 92% probability of a quarter-point increase.

   What to watch next

   • Official Federal Reserve statement on the size of the rate increase
   • Updated inflation data for September
   • Further guidance on the timing of additional hikes
   Sources used for this update (2)

   1. www.pbs.org — What the Fed rate hike likely means for you
   2. www.businessinsider.com — What smart people in business and economics are saying about the Fed interest rate hike
   confidence 90%
6. 45d ago

   Economists expect Fed rate hike Wednesday under Kevin Warsh

   The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates this Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 92% probability of a quarter-point increase. Economists polled by Reuters suggest at least one additional hike will follow. This move comes as inflation remains stubborn, with August consumer prices rising 3.4% annually. Goldman Sachs analysts have updated their expectations to include a September hike, signaling a shift in policy to combat persistent core costs.

   Why it matters

   The Fed has not raised rates since 2023. A hike now would place Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in conflict with the White House shortly before midterm elections.

   What is confirmed

   • Consumer prices rose 3.4% annually in August.
   • Goldman Sachs analysts expect a rate hike in September.
   • The Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates.

   Still unconfirmed

   • At least one more rate hike will follow the Wednesday decision.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve's official interest rate decision on Wednesday
   • Midterm election reactions to Fed policy
   • Upcoming inflation data reports
   Sources used for this update (14)

   1. cnbc.com — Inflation held sticky in August, with consumer prices rising 3.4% annually and core costs climbed
   2. WSJ — The Fed Is Poised to Raise Interest Rates for the First Time in Years
   3. Goldman Sachs — What a Fed Rate Hike Could Mean for US Stocks
   4. Yahoo Finance — Stubbornly Hot Inflation Raises Pressure on the Fed
   5. USA Today — Is it finally time? Why the Fed may raise rates for first time since 2023.
   6. CNN — The Fed is preparing to raise rates. What if it doesn’t work?
   7. Reuters — Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow: Reuters Poll
   8. Axios — Fed's interest rate decision may come down to hair-splitting inflation data
   9. Yahoo Finance — Wall Street thought the Powell hike was over. Now Kevin Warsh has his ‘back against the wall’
   10. WSJ — Goldman Sachs Analysts Now Expect a September Rate Hike
   11. CNBC — The Fed is likely to raise interest rates as inflation persists. What that means for consumers
   12. The Washington Post — Opinion | Raising interest rates will curb inflation and maintain Fed credibility
   confidence 90%