Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow: Reuters Poll

Live updates

1. 10h ago

   Economists expect Fed rate hike Wednesday under Kevin Warsh

   The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates this Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 92% probability of a quarter-point increase. Economists polled by Reuters suggest at least one additional hike will follow. This move comes as inflation remains stubborn, with August consumer prices rising 3.4% annually. Goldman Sachs analysts have updated their expectations to include a September hike, signaling a shift in policy to combat persistent core costs.

   Why it matters

   The Fed has not raised rates since 2023. A hike now would place Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in conflict with the White House shortly before midterm elections.

   What is confirmed

   • Consumer prices rose 3.4% annually in August.
   • Goldman Sachs analysts expect a rate hike in September.
   • The Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates.

   Still unconfirmed

   • At least one more rate hike will follow the Wednesday decision.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve's official interest rate decision on Wednesday
   • Midterm election reactions to Fed policy
   • Upcoming inflation data reports
   Sources used for this update (14)

   1. cnbc.com — Inflation held sticky in August, with consumer prices rising 3.4% annually and core costs climbed
   2. WSJ — The Fed Is Poised to Raise Interest Rates for the First Time in Years
   3. Goldman Sachs — What a Fed Rate Hike Could Mean for US Stocks
   4. Yahoo Finance — Stubbornly Hot Inflation Raises Pressure on the Fed
   5. USA Today — Is it finally time? Why the Fed may raise rates for first time since 2023.
   6. CNN — The Fed is preparing to raise rates. What if it doesn’t work?
   7. Reuters — Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow: Reuters Poll
   8. Axios — Fed's interest rate decision may come down to hair-splitting inflation data
   9. Yahoo Finance — Wall Street thought the Powell hike was over. Now Kevin Warsh has his ‘back against the wall’
   10. WSJ — Goldman Sachs Analysts Now Expect a September Rate Hike
   11. CNBC — The Fed is likely to raise interest rates as inflation persists. What that means for consumers
   12. The Washington Post — Opinion | Raising interest rates will curb inflation and maintain Fed credibility
   confidence 90%