Fed’s Waller Says He’d Back Holding Rates if August Inflation Data Support It

Live updates

1. 23d ago

   Cooler August Inflation Gauge May Delay Next Fed Rate Hike

   The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge came in cooler than expected in August, significantly lowering the chances of an interest rate hike at the central bank's next meeting and likely delaying further action until December. Previously, Federal Reserve officials including governor Michael Barr and Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that additional borrowing cost increases were necessary to combat persistent price pressures driven by economic shocks over the past five years. Markets are now recalibrating expectations following the softer inflation reading.

   Why it matters

   Federal Reserve officials have weighed further interest rate increases to bring down high inflation driven by economic shocks over the past five years. Governor Michael Barr previously stated that more rate hikes are needed to lower price pressures, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addressed global banking leaders and finance ministers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium regarding rising borrowing costs. The central bank continuously reviews its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications.

   What is confirmed

   • The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge in August came in cooler than expected.
   • The cooler inflation reading likely delays another interest-rate hike until December.
   • The chances of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting fell significantly.

   What to watch next

   • The official decision at the Federal Reserve's next meeting
   • Upcoming economic data releases leading into the December meeting
   Sources used for this update (3)

   1. economictimes.indiatimes.com — Dow Jones
   2. nypost.com — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge cooler than expected, likely delaying rate hike to December
   3. www.fool.com — The Fed's Preferred Inflation Metric Came in Cooler Than ...
   confidence 100%
2. 25d ago

   Federal Reserve Officials Weigh Further Rate Hikes to Fight Inflation

   Federal Reserve officials are weighing further interest rate increases to bring down high inflation driven by a series of economic shocks over the past five years. Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr stated that more rate hikes are needed to lower price pressures. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addressed global banking leaders and finance ministers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming, indicating that borrowing costs may need to rise. The central bank continues to review its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve functions as the central bank of the United States to maintain a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system. Policymakers are addressing persistent price increases that have affected the economy following multiple recent shocks. Public statements from central bank officials provide insight into the upcoming path of monetary policy.

   What is confirmed

   • Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr stated that more rate hikes are needed to bring down inflation.
   • Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh addressed global banking leaders and finance ministers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming.
   • Kevin Warsh indicated that interest rates may need to be raised.

   What to watch next

   • Future statements and speeches from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy
   • Upcoming economic data releases concerning inflation trends
   Sources used for this update (4)

   1. www.federalreserve.gov — Federal Reserve Board - Recent Postings
   2. www.fedchirp.com — Fed Chirp — Listening to the Federal Reserve
   3. finance.yahoo.com — Fed’s Barr says more rate hikes needed to bring down inflation
   4. spectrumlocalnews.com — Fed's Warsh says interest rates may need to be raised
   confidence 100%
3. 38d ago

   Fed Rate Hike Expected Wednesday Amid Rising Inflation

   The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this Wednesday as oil prices exceed $100 a barrel and inflation remains high. A CNBC survey indicates 86% of respondents anticipate a rate increase, with 55% expecting multiple hikes. This shift comes as inflation concerns expand beyond energy costs, with the Consumer Price Index near 3.5% this year. While Chair Kevin Warsh has attempted to reduce the transparency of the bank's market communications, other officials have increased their frequency of public speaking over recent decades.

   Why it matters

   The Fed is balancing persistent inflation against previous signals from Governor Christopher Waller, who favored holding rates if inflation cooled. Market expectations have shifted toward a hike after August consumer inflation accelerated. Current oil prices and broad CPI trends are driving this hawkish outlook.

   What is confirmed

   • The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this Wednesday.
   • Oil prices have topped $100 a barrel.

   Still unconfirmed

   • 55% of CNBC survey respondents foresee multiple rate hikes.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday.
   Sources used for this update (3)

   1. www.briefs.co — Most Survey Respondents Now Expect Multiple Fed Rate Hikes
   2. journalrecord.com — Fed’s Warsh faces inflation test as rate hike looms
   3. www.nationalmortgagenews.com — Warsh's push to pare back Fed communications has real limits
   confidence 80%
4. 40d ago

   August Inflation Spike Increases Odds of Federal Reserve Rate Hike

   The Federal Reserve faces a likely rate increase next week after August consumer inflation accelerated due to spiking gas prices. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a quarter-point hike rose to nearly 86% from 72% last Thursday. This shift contradicts previous signals from Governor Christopher Waller, who suggested holding rates if inflation cooled. While markets now price in a hike, a Bloomberg poll indicates most economists expect the Fed to maintain current rates through 2027.

   Why it matters

   The Fed is balancing Middle East conflict-driven energy costs against a recent trend of falling core inflation. This decision marks the first potential rate increase in over three years. Investors are weighing immediate market bets against long-term economist projections.

   What is confirmed

   • The probability of a quarter-point Fed rate increase next week rose to nearly 86% from 72% on Thursday according to the CME FedWatch tool.
   • U.S. inflation accelerated last month as gas prices spiked following Middle East fighting.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Most economists expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2027 according to a Bloomberg poll.
   • The Federal Reserve's decision this week may be a closer call than investors believe.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve interest rate decision scheduled for next week.
   Sources used for this update (4)

   1. www.whittierdailynews.com — Inflation report lands in a time of spiking oil prices, rising interest rates and Fed on fence
   2. www.cnbc.com — August consumer inflation cements Fed rate hike odds. What Wall Street is saying
   3. www.briefs.co — Most Economists Expect Fed To Hold Rates Through 2027 Despite Markets Betting On Hike
   4. finance.yahoo.com — The market says a Fed rate hike is a done deal. Here's why it might hold steady.
   confidence 90%
5. 45d ago

   Bitcoin Rises as Waller Links Rate Decision to Inflation Data

   Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Waller indicated that cooling inflation may justify keeping interest rates unchanged during the September meeting. This development follows August payroll data that showed 162,000 new jobs, surpassing previous forecasts. Investors are currently monitoring core inflation, which has dropped from 4.76% to 3.05% over three months, as they await further Consumer Price Index data to determine the Federal Reserve's next move.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy directly affects market volatility and the valuation of digital assets. Previous tension exists due to Donald Trump's threats to block trade with surplus-running countries unless rates are cut. These competing pressures create uncertainty for investors regarding the September 16 Fed test.

   What is confirmed

   • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said cooling inflation could justify leaving interest rates unchanged in September.
   • August payroll data showed 162,000 new jobs.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Three-month core inflation slid from 4.76% to 3.05%.
   • Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 16
   • Release of new Consumer Price Index data
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. www.sun-sentinel.com — South Florida and Broward County Business
   2. finance.yahoo.com — Bitcoin Faces Sept. 16 Fed Test as Core Inflation Slides From 4.76% to 3.05%
   3. cryptonews.net — Ethereum Price Prediction: Can ETH Clear $2,560 After Thursday’s 5% Rally?
   4. www.readtangle.com — The August economic reports.
   5. www.gold-eagle.com — Current Price of Silver Today (Canada Dollar)
   confidence 80%
6. 49d ago

   Trump Threatens Trade Halts as August Job Growth Exceeds Forecasts

   Donald Trump has threatened to block trade with countries running surpluses with the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. This pressure coincides with August payroll data showing 162,000 new jobs, a figure that far exceeded forecasts. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller previously stated he would support holding rates steady in September if August inflation data justifies the move. Market volatility persists as investors await Consumer Price Index data and monitor a weaker U.S. dollar and softer yields.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve is balancing unexpected job growth against inflation metrics to determine its September policy. Political pressure from the Trump administration adds a layer of complexity to the central bank's independence. The neutral rate may be rising as the safety premium for Treasuries disappears.

   What is confirmed

   • U.S. August payrolls rose 162,000.
   • Donald Trump threatened to halt trade with countries running surpluses with the U.S.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Donald Trump may block trade with deficit countries unless the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates.
   • A Bank of Japan official hinted at a larger rate hike.

   What to watch next

   • Release of August Consumer Price Index data
   • Federal Reserve interest rate decision for September
   Sources used for this update (6)

   1. www.europesays.com — Wall Street indecisive after gold price rollercoaster ride, Main Street clings to bullish majority as CPI takes center stage
   2. www.messenger-inquirer.com — The Latest: US tightens economic squeeze on Iran after a week of renewed strikes
   3. en.sedaily.com — Trump Threatens to Halt Trade With Surplus Nations Over Fed Rates
   4. www.aol.com — The Latest: Federal judge extends block on Trump’s order seeking to limit midterm mail-in voting
   5. www.tovima.com — Trump Threatens to Halt Trade Unless Fed Cuts Rates
   6. en.sedaily.com — U.S. Job Growth Surprises as BOJ Hints at Bigger Rate Hike
   confidence 90%
7. 50d ago

   Fed Governor Waller Open to Holding Rates Steady in September

   Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting if August inflation data justifies the move. While some Fed officials have opened the door to holding rates steady, other reports suggest a rate rise remains a possibility. Waller also noted that the safety premium for Treasuries has vanished, a factor he says is pushing the neutral rate higher. The central bank is currently awaiting upcoming inflation metrics to determine its next policy step.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates to balance inflation control with economic growth. The neutral rate represents the level where policy neither stimulates nor restricts the economy. Determining whether to hold, raise, or cut rates in September depends on whether inflation is trending toward the Fed's target.

   What is confirmed

   • Fed Governor Waller indicated he would support holding rates steady at the September meeting if August inflation data supports it.
   • Federal Reserve officials have indicated the possibility of holding interest rates steady this month.

   Still unconfirmed

   • A rate rise is currently in play as Fed officials await inflation data.
   • Waller stated the safety premium for Treasuries is gone, which is pushing the neutral rate higher.

   What to watch next

   • Release of August inflation data
   • The Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision
   Sources used for this update (6)

   1. WSJ — Stock Market Today: Bonds Stabilize as Oil Slips; Yen Jumps — Live Updates
   2. The New York Times — Rate Rise in Play as Fed Officials Await Inflation Data
   3. CNBC — Fed Governor Waller indicates he will support holding rates steady at September meeting
   4. Reuters — Fed's Waller says safety premium for Treasuries is gone, pushing neutral rate higher
   5. WSJ — Fed’s Waller Says He’d Back Holding Rates if August Inflation Data Support It
   6. Barron's — Fed Officials Open the Door to Holding Interest Rates Steady This Month
   confidence 90%