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Fidelity, Vanguard issue the same sobering 10-year outlook

Fidelity and Vanguard have each issued 10-year market outlooks forecasting U.S. equity returns at less than half the historical 10% annual average that many retirement plans assume. Both firms warn that retirees relying on past S&P 500 performance face significant shortfall risk. The congruent forecasts from the two largest U.S. asset managers signal a broad industry shift in return expectations.

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  • ✓ Fidelity and Vanguard both forecast U.S. stock returns over the next decade at less than half the historical 10% annual average.
  • ✓ The S&P 500 has returned about 10% annually on average since 1957, according to Fidelity.
  • ✓ Both firms warn that U.S. retirees relying on historical return assumptions stand to suffer the most.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 10 independent reporting domains (90% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Fidelity and Vanguard simultaneously published matching decade-ahead forecasts calling for substantially weaker U.S. stock returns.

Live updates

  1. Fidelity and Vanguard project sharply lower U.S. stock returns over next decade

    Fidelity and Vanguard have each issued 10-year market outlooks forecasting U.S. equity returns at less than half the historical 10% annual average that many retirement plans assume. Both firms warn that retirees relying on past S&P 500 performance face significant shortfall risk. The congruent forecasts from the two largest U.S. asset managers signal a broad industry shift in return expectations.

    Why it matters

    Since its 1957 inception the S&P 500 has delivered roughly 10% annualized returns, a figure baked into countless financial plans. Fidelity and Vanguard now argue that elevated valuations, higher interest rates and slower earnings growth make a repeat unlikely. The warning is aimed squarely at near-retirees who have limited time to adjust savings or spending.

    What is confirmed

    • Fidelity and Vanguard both forecast U.S. stock returns over the next decade at less than half the historical 10% annual average.
    • The S&P 500 has returned about 10% annually on average since 1957, according to Fidelity.
    • Both firms warn that U.S. retirees relying on historical return assumptions stand to suffer the most.

    Still unconfirmed

    • A 66-year-old with $2 million and $4,000 monthly Social Security could face a specific shortfall under the new return assumptions.

    What to watch next

    • Updated capital-market assumptions from BlackRock and J.P. Morgan Asset Management
    • Next Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections for long-run growth and inflation
    • Fidelity and Vanguard quarterly portfolio-flow data for signs of allocation shifts
    Sources used for this update (12)
    1. finance.yahoo.com — Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News
    2. flipboard.com — Beloved singer’s wife killed after welcoming robbery suspects with lemonade
    3. www.newsbreak.com — Cathie Wood Predicts Oil Crashing to $30-$35 a Barrel as EVs Take Over Transportation: Says Demand Is 'Peaking’
    4. Yahoo Finance — Fidelity, Vanguard issue the same sobering 10-year outlook — and US retirees stand to suffer most. Protect your nest egg
    5. 24/7 Wall St. — Vanguard and Fidelity Expect Less Than Half the Stock Returns of the Past Decade. Here's the Math for a 66-Year-Old With $2 Million and $4,000 a Month in Social Security.
    6. Investing.com — Above-Average Returns: Why the Next Decade Differs
    7. www.thewealthadvisor.com — Fidelity And Vanguard See The Same Trouble Ahead: A Decade Of Lower Stock Returns
    8. finance.yahoo.com — Fidelity, Vanguard issue the same sobering 10-year outlook ...
    9. www.thewealthadvisor.com — Fidelity And Vanguard See The Same Trouble Ahead: A Decade Of ...
    10. goldseek.com — Trump says renewed Iran strikes ‘highly unlikely’ if talks progress but warns he could still strike | GoldSeek
    11. www.europesays.com — Fidelity, Vanguard issue the same sobering 10-year outlook ...
    12. www.ibtimes.co.uk — Vanguard, Fidelity Forecast a 50% Drop in US Stock Returns ...
    confidence 90%
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