Flu activity is starting to rise. Is this year’s vaccine a good match?
Flu activity is increasing ahead of schedule for the 2026-2027 season, with early spikes reported on the West Coast and in Cincinnati. Christ Hospital reports that flu positivity rates in Cincinnati are six times higher than normal. While hospitalizations are rising early and Colorado has confirmed its first child flu death of the season, early indicators suggest a positive outlook for the vaccine. Dr. Costi Sifri, chief epidemiologist at UVA Hospital, stated that the vaccine appears to be a good match based on strains seen in the Southern hemisphere.
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- ✓ The 2026-2027 flu season is starting early.
- ✓ Flu activity is rising early on the West Coast.
What changed
Colorado confirmed the first pediatric flu death of the season and Cincinnati reported positivity rates six times above normal.
Live updates
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Flu activity rises early for 2026-2027 season
Flu activity is increasing ahead of schedule for the 2026-2027 season, with early spikes reported on the West Coast and in Cincinnati. Christ Hospital reports that flu positivity rates in Cincinnati are six times higher than normal. While hospitalizations are rising early and Colorado has confirmed its first child flu death of the season, early indicators suggest a positive outlook for the vaccine. Dr. Costi Sifri, chief epidemiologist at UVA Hospital, stated that the vaccine appears to be a good match based on strains seen in the Southern hemisphere.
Why it matters
Flu seasons typically follow predictable seasonal patterns, but early surges can strain healthcare systems. Vaccination is the primary preventative measure used to reduce severe illness and death. Health officials use data from the Southern hemisphere as a bellwether to predict the effectiveness of the Northern hemisphere's vaccine.
What is confirmed
- The 2026-2027 flu season is starting early.
- Flu activity is rising early on the West Coast.
Still unconfirmed
- Colorado confirmed its first child flu death of the 2026-2027 season.
What to watch next
- Updated positivity rates from other major US cities
- Official vaccine efficacy data for the Northern hemisphere
- Hospitalization trends leading into November
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (15)
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