Gasoline likely to boost US consumer prices in August
A gasoline rebound likely drove up US consumer prices in August, contributing to a 4.4% inflation rate and weighing on consumer confidence. The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9%, citing resilient economic growth despite the Middle East war and soaring energy prices. The US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates due to strong demand, indicated by a 58.4 US PMI.
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- β Global economic growth is now seen at 2.9 percent, a 0.1-point increase from estimates in June by the OECD.
- β The OECD noted that "broader financial conditions remain supportive", as seen in rising equity markets and continued access to credit.
- β A Reuters survey found August CPI likely rose as gasoline prices rebounded, reinforcing expectations of a Fed interest-rate increase and weighing on consumer confidence.
- β Germany's lower house of parliament approved a second temporary gasoline tax discount this year, which will cost federal and state governments EUR2.5 billion ($2.85 billion).
What changed
The OECD lifted its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9%, despite the Middle East war and soaring energy prices.
Live updates
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Gasoline rebound likely pushed US consumer prices higher in August
A gasoline rebound likely drove up US consumer prices in August, contributing to a 4.4% inflation rate and weighing on consumer confidence. The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9%, citing resilient economic growth despite the Middle East war and soaring energy prices. The US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates due to strong demand, indicated by a 58.4 US PMI.
Why it matters
The rising gasoline prices and ongoing trade disputes have led to falling consumer sentiment in September. The economic pressures coincide with a broader energy crisis driving up fuel and electricity costs, compounding financial strain for households. The 30-Year Treasury yield is at 5.45%, and the interest rate is at 5.18%.
What is confirmed
- Global economic growth is now seen at 2.9 percent, a 0.1-point increase from estimates in June by the OECD.
- The OECD noted that "broader financial conditions remain supportive", as seen in rising equity markets and continued access to credit.
- A Reuters survey found August CPI likely rose as gasoline prices rebounded, reinforcing expectations of a Fed interest-rate increase and weighing on consumer confidence.
- Germany's lower house of parliament approved a second temporary gasoline tax discount this year, which will cost federal and state governments EUR2.5 billion ($2.85 billion).
Still unconfirmed
- The US market showed resilience despite the strong headwind of soaring interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007.
What to watch next
- US consumer price index (CPI) data for August
- Federal Reserve interest rate decision
- OECD's future economic growth forecasts
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (13)
- english.aawsat.com β OECD Lifts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 2.9% Despite Mideast War
- note.com β The Biggest Tail Risk Shifts from AI Bubble to Interest RatesβStock Prices Remain Resilient Even at 5.53% for 30-Year Bonds, While -408 Lurks Beneath | September 27β¦
- www.marketscreener.com β Germany's lower house of parliament approves fuel tax discount
- www.livemint.com β The moves that backfired on Trump and drove interest rates and inflation higher
- slownews.kr β Slow Letter: September 28, 2026.
- finance.yahoo.com β Everyday Economics: Consumers are still spending. Theyβre looking for a better deal.
- note.com β US Market Report September 28, 2026
- www.thehindubusinessline.com β Sensex today | Stock Market Highlights: Markets fall for 2nd day as high oil prices, foreign fund outflows weigh
- www.inquirer.com β Trump administration lowers fuel economy standards, critics say at significant environmental cost
- www.koreatimes.co.kr β Chip-driven growth faces headwinds from weak domestic demand, high oil prices
- bmmagazine.co.uk β UK growth forecast raised to 1.1 per cent by OECD - Business Matters
- www.zacks.com β 2 Solid Mutual Funds to Boost Your Portfolio on Surging Retail Sales - September 28, 2026 - Zacks.com
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Gas Prices and Trade Disputes Lower September Consumer Sentiment
Falling consumer sentiment in September stems directly from rising gas prices and ongoing trade disputes, according to Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma. These economic pressures coincide with a broader energy crisis driving up fuel and electricity costs, compounding financial strain for households already dealing with a 4.4% inflation rate from August. Rising borrowing costs, including a 5.45% 30-Year Treasury yield and an interest rate of 5.18%, further tighten economic conditions as strong demand indicated by a 58.4 US PMI points toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Why it matters
Gasoline prices and trade friction heavily influence consumer confidence and overall household spending power. The intersection of climbing energy costs and high borrowing rates threatens to slow economic growth while keeping inflation sticky. Policymakers face difficult decisions as they monitor consumer sentiment alongside broader manufacturing and supply indicators.
What is confirmed
- Gas prices and trade disputes pushed September consumer sentiment lower, according to Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma.
What to watch next
- Upcoming consumer price index data to measure the full impact of August and September gas price spikes.
- Federal Reserve decisions regarding potential interest rate hikes in response to strong demand and inflation indicators.
- Government interventions and key dates related to the ongoing energy crisis affecting fuel and electricity prices.
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (3)
- finance.yahoo.com β Gas prices and trade disputes push September consumer sentiment lower
- www.usatoday.com β Rising prices, plunging ratings, lingering war: Trump's plate is full
- indicator.gr β Energy Crisis: Concerns Over Rising Electricity and Fuel Prices β Key Dates and Planned Interventions
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Oil Prices Rise After Saudi Arabia Thwarts Missile Attack
Oil prices increased following a foiled Houthi missile attack on a major Saudi Arabian export route. This development adds pressure to US consumer prices already affected by 4.4% inflation in August. While US retail sales grew 1.2% in August, rising borrowing costs persist as the 30-Year Treasury yield reached 5.45% and interest rates rose to 5.18%. These factors coincide with a US PMI of 58.4, indicating strong demand and inflation that may prompt further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Why it matters
High fuel costs previously led President Donald Trump to support a diesel export ban. Treasury Secretary Bessent is reviewing the feasibility of such restrictions to stabilize prices. These internal US pressures contrast with a softening Canadian economy where July retail sales fell more than expected.
What is confirmed
- Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia thwarted a Houthi attack on a major export route.
- The US 30-Year Treasury yield hit 5.45%.
Still unconfirmed
- US interest rates rose to 5.18%.
- The US PMI is 58.4.
What to watch next
- Treasury Secretary Bessent's decision on the diesel export ban
- Federal Reserve announcements regarding further rate hikes
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (5)
- note.com β What the US PMI of 58.4 Indicates for the Next Phase of the Global Economy: Reading Trends in Currencies, Stocks, Government Bonds, and Real Estate Across Countries
- note.com β [USD/JPY] Buying bias today | The biggest reason is the sharp rise in US interest rates to 5.18%
- www.ibtimes.sg β US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.45% as Markets Brace for More Fed Rate Hikes
- malaysia.news.yahoo.com β Oil jumps after Saudi thwarts missile attack
- au.finance.yahoo.com β Canada retail sales slide in July, raising fresh concerns over consumer strength
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US Retail Sales Rise as Diesel Export Ban Considered
U.S. retail sales grew 1.2% in August despite persistent inflation and higher interest rates. Retailers such as FIVE, DLTR, KSS, TGT, and TJX showed strong performance amidst climbing costs. Meanwhile, inflation ticked up to 4.4% in August, driven largely by housing, utilities, and transport. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed support for a diesel export ban to address record-high fuel prices driven by global shortages, prompting an internal review by Treasury Secretary Bessent regarding feasibility, total bans, and partial restrictions.
Why it matters
Global energy markets face pressure from surging oil prices and tight supplies, compounded by previous domestic refining disruptions such as the disabled Exxon Mobil refinery in Joliet. While policymakers weigh measures like diesel export bans, analysts warn that restricting exports could worsen global supply and economic disruptions rather than lower domestic prices. Borrowers face increasingly expensive credit markets spanning mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards as central banks navigate rising consumer costs.
What is confirmed
- U.S. retail sales rose 1.2% in August despite high inflation and higher interest rates.
- President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he supported the idea of a diesel export ban to lower record-high fuel prices.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent explained that the administration is examining whether a diesel embargo is feasible.
Still unconfirmed
- Analysts and market watchers warn that a diesel export ban would do little to ease high energy prices and could worsen global economic disruptions.
- Inflation ticked up to 4.4% in August driven by housing, utilities, and transport, though it is considered unlikely to have much bearing on a specific rate call.
What to watch next
- Decisions by the administration on whether to implement a total ban or partial restrictions on diesel exports.
- Further central bank rate calls in response to rising core and headline inflation figures.
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (6)
- finance.yahoo.com β 5 Solid Retail Stocks to Grab as Sales Roar Despite High Inflation
- english.aawsat.com β Ban on US Diesel Exports Would Hurt, Not Help Fuel Markets, Analysts Say
- www.businessday.co.za β Inflation ticks up to 4.4% in August, but unlikely to have much bearing on rate call
- www.businesstimes.com.sg β Singapore core inflation picks up to 2.2% in August; watchers mixed on MAS response
- www.marketscreener.com β US consumers and businesses are now facing a future of more expensive borrowing
- note.com β What happens if the US stops diesel exports? (Which stocks would benefit?)
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Global Central Banks Shift Toward Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Pressures
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1.25%, while Federal Reserve projections suggest one additional rate hike in 2026. These moves support U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, analysts suggest the Reserve Bank of India may raise rates in October due to firming crude prices and rising inflation. This global tightening follows recent U.S. stock declines and spikes in consumer costs for gasoline and housing, exacerbated by a disabled Exxon Mobil refinery in Joliet.
Why it matters
Coordinated or simultaneous rate hikes across major economies typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase borrowing costs. These adjustments aim to curb inflation, which is currently driving up fuel and housing prices for consumers.
What is confirmed
- The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1.25%.
- Federal Reserve projections indicate one more rate hike in 2026.
Still unconfirmed
- The Reserve Bank of India may raise rates in October because of inflation and crude oil prices.
- The U.S. dollar is supported by Fed hike expectations while the EUR/USD remains under pressure.
What to watch next
- Reserve Bank of India rate decision in October
- Status of the Exxon Mobil refinery in Joliet
- Upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate announcements
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (3)
- note.com β The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 1.25%. If you have a variable-rate loan, the one line you should check this week is the 'adjustment date'.
- www.fxempire.com β Interest Rate Forecast: Fed Hike Expectations Support US Dollar
- www.outlookmoney.com β RBI May Have To Start Raising Rates In October As Inflation Firms, And The Fed Turns Hawkish, Say Analysts
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Rising fuel costs and Treasury yields weigh on US markets
US stock indices fell Friday as investors reacted to volatile oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and a recent Federal Reserve rate hike. The Dow dropped 0.38%, the S&P 500 fell 0.22%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.16%. Consumer costs for housing and gasoline have increased over the past week, while diesel fuel prices have reached a record high. In the Midwest, fuel prices may continue to rise because an Exxon Mobil refinery in Joliet remains offline following a power outage and flooding.
Why it matters
The Federal Reserve recently raised benchmark interest rates to a range of 3.75% to 4% to combat inflation. These economic pressures coincide with upcoming midterm elections to determine control of Congress. High oil prices and Treasury yields are currently sustaining market volatility.
What is confirmed
- The Dow fell 0.38%, the S&P 500 fell 0.22%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.16% on Friday.
- The Exxon Mobil refinery in Joliet has a capacity of 275,000 barrels per day and remained offline through Thursday.
- High oil prices and elevated Treasury yields are contributing to market volatility.
Still unconfirmed
- The S&P 500 rebounded from 7,500 supported by AI shares.
What to watch next
- Corporate earnings reports for AI demand
- Updates on Joliet refinery operational status
- Midterm election results regarding Congressional control
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (6)
- economictimes.indiatimes.com β Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Live Updates: US stocks slip as higher Treasury yields weigh on sentiment
- note.com β [September 19] Yen weakens to 158 level despite BOJ's 1.25% rate hike | Nikkei up 882 yen, August inflation at 1.7% impact on households summary ... - noteοΌγγΌγοΌ
- www.csmonitor.com β The price of diesel keeps rising. Why itβs about to hit American consumers.
- finance.yahoo.com β Joliet refinery delayed in bringing capacity online as Midwest gas prices surge
- www.fxempire.com β S&P 500 Forecast: Tech Leads Rebound From 7,500 as 5% Yields Loom
- news.sbs.co.kr β Soaring Cost of Living Ahead of US Midterm Elections: From Mortgages to Gas Prices
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Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 3.75% to 4% range
The US Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the first such hike since July 2023. This move brings the rate range to 3.75% to 4%. The decision comes as the central bank addresses inflation and the economic impact of war in the Middle East. While the Federal Reserve acted to curb inflation, Donald Trump has urged the bank to lower rates. This policy shift follows a period of rising oil prices and high Chinese export costs.
Why it matters
Higher interest rates typically increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses to slow inflation. This action follows previous reports of resilient retail sales and rising Treasury yields. The timing coincides with volatile energy markets and geopolitical instability.
What is confirmed
- The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday.
- This is the first rate increase since July 2023.
- The new interest rate range is 3.75% to 4%.
Still unconfirmed
- Restaurant traffic fell 2.4% year over year in August across nearly every state.
- Total retail visits increased by 0.3%.
- Donald Trump urged the central bank to lower rates.
What to watch next
- Data on whether the rate hike slows August consumer price growth
- Further responses from the White House regarding central bank policy
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (3)
- www.theguardian.com β US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023
- finance.yahoo.com β Restaurant Traffic Falls 2.4% Across US in August
- businessday.ng β US Fed raises rates as inflation, Middle East war weigh on US economy
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August retail sales rebound strengthens case for Fed rate hike
U.S. retail sales rose sharply in August as consumers increased spending on goods and dining at bars and restaurants. This growth indicates economic resilience but increases inflation pressures, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This potential move follows a period of rising Treasury yields and oil prices. Simultaneously, costs for U.S. imports of capital and consumer goods have increased, with Chinese export prices reaching their highest level since January 2004.
Why it matters
The Federal Reserve is weighing these inflation pressures against economic growth to determine its next rate move. This would be the first increase since 2023 and the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. President Donald Trump has publicly demanded lower rates despite these trends.
What is confirmed
- U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in August.
- Households increased spending on a variety of goods and at restaurants and bars in August.
Still unconfirmed
- Prices of Chinese exports to the United States reached their highest level since January 2004.
- The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will vote on Thursday regarding rate calls.
What to watch next
- The Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday
- Bank of England rate vote on Thursday
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (4)
- www.mpamag.com β What the latest inflation rise means for the Bank of England's rate call
- finance.yahoo.com β Retail Sales Boost Fed Rate Hike Case
- www.theepochtimes.com β US Import Prices Rise on Higher Costs for Capital, Consumer Goods
- www.aol.com β Robust US retail sales underscore economy's resilience; inflation pressures building
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US Stock Futures Fall as Markets Await Wednesday Fed Decision
US stock futures declined as Treasury yields exceeded 5% and oil prices climbed. Investors are awaiting a key interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. This follows expectations that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points to combat inflation driven by energy costs. While markets anticipate a hike, President Donald Trump continues to demand lower rates. This potential move would be the first rate increase since 2023 and the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Why it matters
Rising fuel prices are pushing consumer inflation higher, forcing the Federal Reserve to weigh interest rate adjustments. A rate hike would increase borrowing costs to cool the economy. Treasury yields hitting 5% indicates significant market volatility ahead of the official announcement.
Still unconfirmed
- US stock futures have slipped as Treasury yields topped 5% and oil prices rose.
- The Federal Reserve will announce an interest rate decision on Wednesday.
What to watch next
- The Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday
- August consumer price index report
confidence 70%Sources used for this update (4)
- www.analyticsinsight.net β US Stock Futures Slip as Treasury Yield Tops 5% Ahead of Fed Decision
- www.yahoo.com β Trump seems to be doing all he can to harm GOP midterm chances
- moneyweek.com β Live: Inflation expected to rise
- www.wbkb11.com β US companies get creative as tariff refunds start flowing in
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Oil Price Surges Drive Expectations for Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week as surging oil and fuel prices drive inflation. Economists anticipate this move despite ongoing demands from President Donald Trump for lower rates. This would mark the first rate increase under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's leadership and the first since 2023. Market expectations have shifted sharply toward a hike as energy costs push consumer prices higher.
Why it matters
The Fed must balance inflation control against political pressure for cheap borrowing. High energy costs typically increase the Consumer Price Index, forcing the central bank to tighten monetary policy to stabilize the economy.
What is confirmed
- The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week.
- President Donald Trump continues to demand rate cuts.
Still unconfirmed
- This would be the first rate increase under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's watch.
- This would be the first rate increase since 2023.
What to watch next
- The FOMC interest rate decision this week
- Upcoming US Consumer Price Index data for August
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (4)
- www.usatoday.com β Is it finally time? Why the Fed may raise rates for first time since 2023.
- finance.yahoo.com β Soaring Oil Prices Put Fed on Track for September Rate Hike
- www.businesstimes.com.sg β Fedβs Warsh poised to pull trigger and raise rates for the first time under his watch
- www.mpamag.com β Canadian inflation holds steady, likely keeping BoC hikes on ice
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Markets anticipate Fed rate hike as US consumer prices rise
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this week following a firmer than forecast monthly core CPI. Market implications now suggest a 90% probability of a 25bp hike at the FOMC meeting. This comes as US Treasury 2-year yields hit a new cycle high and the 10-year yield stands at 4.98%. While President Donald Trump continues to advocate for the lowest interest rates in the world, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces increasing pressure to tighten borrowing costs to combat inflation driven by energy spikes.
Why it matters
Renewed fighting in the Middle East pushed gasoline and diesel prices higher, causing August consumer prices to rise 0.4%. These inflationary pressures are influencing global central banks, including the RBI, which may hike rates in October and December. The Fed's upcoming decision will determine the cost of borrowing across US markets.
What is confirmed
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.98%.
- The Federal Reserve is scheduled to make an interest-rate decision during the week of September 14.
Still unconfirmed
- US Treasury 2-year yields have reached a new cycle high.
What to watch next
- The FOMC interest-rate decision this week
- The Reserve Bank of India rate announcement in October
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (6)
- finance.yahoo.com β Trump Pushes Fed to Lower Rates Despite Pressure to Raise Them
- www.marketscreener.com β Week Ahead for FX, Bonds : All Eyes on Fed Rate Decision
- en.bloomingbit.io β Why the US Treasury Isnβt Buying Bonds Blindly: The Real Purpose of Buybacks
- www.interest.co.nz β Breakfast briefing: Higher yields are here to stay
- www.livemint.com β Loan interest rates, EMIs to rise? Two back-to-back 25 bps repo rate hike from RBI soon?
- www.interest.co.nz β NZD can't maintain a small push higher
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August inflation accelerates as Middle East conflict spikes fuel costs
US inflation accelerated in August, driven by a spike in gasoline and fuel prices following renewed fighting in the Middle East. Consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month, matching estimates, while wholesale prices also increased by 0.4%. These energy costs pushed consumer inflation to a three-month high and caused diesel prices to reach a new peak. Market reactions following the CPI data have pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike to 85%, while Bitcoin rallied past $79K.
Why it matters
Rising affordability challenges coincide with midterm elections occurring in seven weeks. The Federal Reserve is currently weighing whether to raise interest rates to combat the unexpected acceleration in core inflation.
What is confirmed
- US inflation accelerated in August due to rising fuel prices linked to Middle East conflicts.
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in August.
- Wholesale prices increased by 0.4% in August.
- Midterm elections are seven weeks away.
Still unconfirmed
- Annual core inflation reached a 66-month low.
What to watch next
- Federal Reserve decision on interest rate hikes
- Midterm election voter turnout regarding economic affordability
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (5)
- www.arkansasonline.com β US inflation accelerates in August
- auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com β No relief from inflation as Middle East clashes lifts fuel prices to painful levels
- wtop.com β America In Focus: inflation accelerated in August, home sales weaken and diesel prices soar
- www.livemint.com β The week ahead in numbers: Inflation trajectory, export growth, NSE IPO
- blockonomi.com β Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rallies Past $79K Following Inflation Data β What CPI Numbers Mean for Crypto
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Gasoline Costs Push US Consumer Prices Up in August
US consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, matching estimates as energy costs climbed. Wholesale prices also increased by 0.4% in August as expected, driven by rising energy costs and oil prices continuing to climb. Gasoline prices spiked following renewed fighting in the Middle East, specifically during an Iran war that drove energy costs higher and pushed diesel prices to a fresh high. This surge in energy prices led consumer inflation to hit a three-month high while the core measure unexpectedly accelerated, squeezing Americans finances and raising questions about whether interest rates should be raised.
Why it matters
Inflation staying hot in August highlights the ongoing vulnerability of American consumers to global energy shocks. The jump in oil and gasoline prices stems directly from conflicts in the Middle East. Policymakers now face renewed pressure as these stubborn price increases ripple through both wholesale and consumer sectors.
What is confirmed
- US consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, matching estimates.
- Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, as expected.
- US consumer inflation hit a three-month high in August as energy prices rose.
Still unconfirmed
- Diesel prices hit a fresh high.
What to watch next
- Decisions regarding whether to raise interest rates in response to the August inflation data.
- Further developments in the Middle East conflict affecting oil and gas supplies.
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (12)
- CNBC β Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, as expected
- CNN β Wholesale inflation picked up in August, as energy costs kept rising | CNN Business
- Bloomberg.com β Key Gauge of US Producer Prices Rises Less Than Forecast
- AP News β US wholesale prices rise in latest sign of stubborn inflation as oil prices continue to climb
- Reuters β Gasoline likely to boost US consumer prices in August
- ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos β Inflation report to show latest prices as Iran war pushes up gas costs
- Axios β Inflation stays hot in August as Iran war drives energy costs higher
- Investing.com β U.S. consumer prices rise by 0.4% month-on-month in August, matching estimates
- BBC β Diesel prices hit fresh high
- USA Today β Prices rose in August. Is it time to raise interest rates?
- finance.yahoo.com β August Consumer Inflation Hits Three-Month High as Core CPI Unexpectedly Accelerates
- www.wfmj.com β US inflation accelerated last month as gas prices spiked, squeezing Americans' finances
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