Global Diesel Crunch Fuels New Wave of Energy Nationalism

Live updates

1. 42m ago

   Global Diesel Crunch and Energy Nationalism Threaten Supplies

   Global diesel shortages are worsening as ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran squeeze international fuel markets, driving a surge in energy nationalism. Governments are prioritizing domestic supplies over exports, with China banning all fuel exports for the month and Russia maintaining a diesel export ban. Goldman Sachs and the International Energy Agency warn that tight supplies and high prices will persist through 2027. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump faces bipartisan criticism for a new U.S.-Russia diesel deal with Vladimir Putin that waives certain sanctions.

   Why it matters

   Global fuel stocks have plunged due to refinery struggles and supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia, which saw third-quarter supplies fall by 1.7 million barrels a day. Shell expects a record $42-per-barrel refining margin for the third quarter as fuel supplies dry up. The crunch is driving up costs for businesses from Seattle to Europe, triggering protectionist export bans.

   What is confirmed

   • The International Energy Agency warns that the global diesel shortage could persist well into 2027 due to ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran.
   • China imposed a ban on all fuel exports for the month, while Russia maintains a diesel export ban.
   • President Donald Trump announced a diesel deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on October 9.
   • Shell expects a record $42-per-barrel refining margin for the third quarter.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Gulf producers may be paying Iran tolls of 10% to 20% on some cargoes for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

   What to watch next

   • Whether the U.S. Congress will successfully block or penalize the administration's diesel deal with Russia
   • Implementation details of ongoing export bans by major producers like China and Russia
   • Monthly refining margin reports from energy majors confirming third-quarter projections
   Sources used for this update (20)

   1. Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com — Global Diesel Crunch Fuels New Wave of Energy Nationalism
   2. Forbes — Oil Is Flowing Again But Gasoline And Diesel Prices Aren’t Cooperating
   3. CNBC — Goldman: Diesel prices set to stay high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand
   4. The Seattle Times — ‘Obscene diesel prices’ hit Seattle-area businesses. What this means for consumers
   5. USA Today — Why soaring diesel prices could hit your wallet in unexpected ways
   6. oilprice.com — Global Diesel Crunch Fuels New Wave of Energy Nationalism | OilPrice.com
   7. oilprice.com — Shell’s Refining Margin Jumps 75% as Fuel Supplies Dry Up | OilPrice.com
   8. finance.yahoo.com — Kpler Suspects Gulf Producers Are Paying Iran for Safe Passage
   9. foreignpolicy.com — Adam Tooze on the Global Diesel Crisis - Foreign Policy
   10. www.cnn.com — Trump’s US-Russia diesel deal draws bipartisan criticism - CNN
   11. lombardtrading.com — Global Diesel Crunch Fuels New Wave of Energy Nationalism ...
   12. biztoc.com — Global Diesel Crunch Fuels New Wave of Energy Nationalism
   confidence 95%