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Goldman Sachs spills the beans on what’s next for S&P 500

Goldman Sachs projects a 27 percent year-over-year earnings per share growth rate for the S&P 500 in the third quarter, driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. The bank forecasts that artificial intelligence capital expenditures will power more than half of this expansion, with heavy hitters like Nvidia and Micron carrying over a third of the gains. However, Goldman Sachs notes that headline growth masks a much more uneven market underneath, characterized by narrow market breadth and lingering margin pressures for the broader index.

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  • ✓ Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 27 percent year over year in the third quarter.
  • ✓ Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is projected to drive more than half of the Q3 earnings growth.
  • ✓ A record 72 S&P 500 firms have issued positive third-quarter earnings guidance, according to FactSet.
  • ✓ Nvidia and Micron are expected to carry over a third of the gains.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 12 independent reporting domains (90% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Goldman Sachs released a new forecast projecting a 27 percent jump in S&P 500 profits alongside a 12-month index target of 8,700.

Live updates

  1. Goldman Sachs Projects 27% Profit Jump for S&P 500

    Goldman Sachs projects a 27 percent year-over-year earnings per share growth rate for the S&P 500 in the third quarter, driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. The bank forecasts that artificial intelligence capital expenditures will power more than half of this expansion, with heavy hitters like Nvidia and Micron carrying over a third of the gains. However, Goldman Sachs notes that headline growth masks a much more uneven market underneath, characterized by narrow market breadth and lingering margin pressures for the broader index.

    Why it matters

    This projected earnings expansion builds on a period where the S&P 500 has pushed to record highs, supported by robust corporate optimism regarding future profits. FactSet data shows a record 72 S&P 500 firms issuing positive earnings guidance for the third quarter. Despite the strong headline forecasts, investors remain wary of a potential slowdown in the corporate profit boom as the market grapples with uneven participation across sectors.

    What is confirmed

    • Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 27 percent year over year in the third quarter.
    • Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is projected to drive more than half of the Q3 earnings growth.
    • A record 72 S&P 500 firms have issued positive third-quarter earnings guidance, according to FactSet.
    • Nvidia and Micron are expected to carry over a third of the gains.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month index target of 8,700 for the S&P 500.

    What to watch next

    • Actual third-quarter earnings reports from major artificial intelligence infrastructure providers.
    • Broader sector participation beyond the leading technology stocks.
    Sources used for this update (14)
    1. seekingalpha.com — AI spending to drive another strong S&P 500 earnings season, Goldman Sachs says
    2. thestreet.com — Goldman Sachs spills the beans on what’s next for S&P 500
    3. FactSet Insight — S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
    4. marketwatch.com — Corporate America has never been this upbeat about future profits
    5. Reuters — Investors wary of slowdown in US corporate profit boom
    6. Seeking Alpha — Record 72 S&P 500 firms issue positive Q3 earnings guidance - FactSet (SPY:NYSEARCA)
    7. Financial Times — Robust AI spending sets investors up for another bumper US earnings season
    8. Investor's Business Daily — This Is Why The S&P 500 Is At Record Highs
    9. finance.yahoo.com — Goldman Sachs spills the beans on what’s next for S&P 500
    10. finance.yahoo.com — Jim Cramer says Scott Bessent is fighting a flood with one finger
    11. flipboard.com — Prime Video top 10 movies — here’s the 3 worth watching this week (Oct. 5-11)
    12. flipboard.com — Goldman Sachs spills the beans on what’s next for S&P 500
    confidence 90%
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