Goldman Warns Diesel Export Ban Would Send Gasoline Prices Higher

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1. 2h ago

   Goldman Warns Diesel Export Ban Risks Higher Gasoline Prices

   The White House is weighing a potential temporary ban on United States diesel exports to counter record-high domestic fuel prices as the November midterms approach. President Trump stated his administration is reviewing the embargo very seriously, though his team is also evaluating three alternative measures short of a full ban. According to Goldman Sachs, cutting off diesel exports would initially reduce domestic diesel prices by $0.25 per gallon weekly until storage facilities fill up. However, analysts warn the policy would subsequently push gasoline prices higher by $0.30 per week and worsen energy crises in Europe and Latin America.

   Why it matters

   The United States is currently grappling with a severe global diesel and aviation fuel shortage that has removed 1.6 million barrels per day of exports from the market. Although American refineries theoretically serve as a global safety valve, domestic output is fully committed to rising local demand and heavy export obligations rather than sitting on a surplus. Implementing an export restriction risks triggering an intense price spiral that threatens foreign economies and domestic drivers alike.

   What is confirmed

   • President Trump is considering a temporary ban on United States diesel exports very seriously to combat record-high domestic fuel prices ahead of the November midterms.
   • Goldman Sachs projects that a diesel export ban would initially cut diesel prices by $0.25 a gallon weekly until storage fills up.
   • Goldman Sachs warns that a diesel export ban would subsequently lift gasoline prices by $0.30 a week.
   • The White House is evaluating three alternative options short of a complete embargo, including red-dyed diesel tax relief.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Cash-only gold purchases in India are growing rapidly, offering buyers discounts of up to $200 per ounce or 6 to 10 percent.

   What to watch next

   • Decisions by the White House on whether to implement the diesel export ban or pursue alternative tax relief options.
   • Official announcements regarding the three measures under consideration that fall short of a full embargo.
   Sources used for this update (17)

   1. nytimes.com — Why a U.S. Diesel Export Ban May Not Lower Prices
   2. CNN — Trump wants to take a page out of the Biden energy playbook
   3. english.elpais.com — Trump’s plan to ban diesel exports aggravates Europe and Latin America’s energy crisis
   4. english.elpais.com — Trump’s plan to ban diesel exports aggravates Europe and Latin America’s energy crisis
   5. www.zerohedge.com — Futures Tumble As Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs, Oil Surges | ZeroHedge
   6. sonar21.com — America’s Diesel Surplus Is an Illusion
   7. Deseret News — Opinion: Why the proposed diesel ban could backfire on American drivers
   8. Reuters — Goldman expects initial diesel price decline under US export curbs
   9. CNBC — Trump ‘very seriously’ considering diesel export ban as global supply crunch worsens
   10. Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com — Goldman Warns Diesel Export Ban Would Send Gasoline Prices Higher
   11. Reuters — White House weighs red-dyed diesel tax relief to lower fuel prices
   12. Yahoo Finance — Trump sounds less than sold on a diesel export embargo as his team weighs 3 options short of a ban
   confidence 95%