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Here’s how much stocks could fall if the Democrats sweep Congress, according to BofA

Bank of America's chief equity strategist, Michael Hartnett, warns that if Democrats sweep Congress in the midterm elections, US stocks could fall by more than 10%. This prediction comes as the probability of a Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress increases. Historically, a Democratic-controlled Congress has been associated with lower stock market returns.

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  • ✓ A Democratic sweep of Congress could cause US stocks to fall by more than 10%.
  • ✓ Bank of America's chief equity strategist, Michael Hartnett, is the source of the warning.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 10 independent reporting domains (70% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett has reiterated his warning that a Democratic sweep of Congress could lead to a significant stock market decline, with some sources specifying a potential drop of over 10%.

Live updates

  1. Democratic Sweep of Congress Could Cause 10% Stock Drop, Says BofA

    Bank of America's chief equity strategist, Michael Hartnett, warns that if Democrats sweep Congress in the midterm elections, US stocks could fall by more than 10%. This prediction comes as the probability of a Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress increases. Historically, a Democratic-controlled Congress has been associated with lower stock market returns.

    Why it matters

    The midterm elections are crucial for the US stock market, as the outcome can influence investor sentiment and economic policies. A Democratic sweep could lead to changes in taxation, regulation, and government spending, which may negatively impact corporate earnings and stock prices. The stock market has historically performed better under a divided government or Republican control.

    What is confirmed

    • A Democratic sweep of Congress could cause US stocks to fall by more than 10%.
    • Bank of America's chief equity strategist, Michael Hartnett, is the source of the warning.

    Still unconfirmed

    • AI stocks face the biggest risk in a Democratic sweep of Congress.

    What to watch next

    • The outcome of the midterm elections
    • The reaction of the stock market to the election results
    • Any policy changes implemented by a Democratic-controlled Congress
    Sources used for this update (11)
    1. Morningstar — What the Midterm Elections Will Mean for Markets
    2. WSJ — Gridlock Is Good for Stocks. Certainty Is Better.
    3. Yahoo Finance — History says midterms could hand the S&P 500 a year-end rally: Chart of the Day
    4. CNBC — How the 2026 midterms could affect stocks—and what investors should do
    5. MarketWatch — Here’s how much stocks could fall if the Democrats sweep Congress, according to BofA
    6. The Hill — A blue wave in the midterms could tank markets
    7. Yahoo Finance — Democrats Have a 93% Chance of Retaking at Least One House of Congress on Nov. 3 -- History Says That's Bad News for Stocks
    8. www.cbssports.com — 2026 WNBA playoffs bracket, schedule: Valkyries and Dream advance to WNBA Finals with semifinal sweeps
    9. finance.yahoo.com — Here’s how much stocks could fall if the Democrats sweep ...
    10. cryptobriefing.com — Bank of America warns stocks could slide over 10% if ...
    11. primexbt.com — BofA’s Hartnett Warns Stocks Could Fall More Than 10% on a ...
    confidence 70%
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