Here's how much worse U.S. debt could get as Treasury yields surge to the highest levels in two decades

Live updates

1. 1h ago

   US debt outlook darkens as Treasury yields surge to two-decade highs

   Soaring Treasury yields are raising concerns about the US debt outlook. The 10-year yield hit 5.23%, the highest level since 2007. If interest rates stay high, the national debt could grow to 222% of GDP by 2056. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that a 1% increase in interest rates would add trillions to the debt. The US debt has already hit $40 trillion, with interest costs widening the deficit.

   Why it matters

   The surge in Treasury yields is complicating Federal Reserve policy and Treasury financing. Higher borrowing costs could slow economic growth and increase the national debt. The CBO's analysis shows how vulnerable the US is to additional increases in interest rates. The rising debt and deficit are putting pressure on the US economy.

   What is confirmed

   • The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.23%, the highest level since 2007.
   • The 30-year Treasury bond closed at 5.5%, the highest level since 2004.
   • If interest rates rise by 1 percentage point, the national debt could grow to 222% of GDP by 2056.
   • The US debt has hit $40 trillion.
   • Interest costs on the US debt have widened the deficit.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The surge in Treasury yields is fueled by higher oil prices, a hot consumer spending report, competition for borrowing due to AI investment, the Fed's recent decision to raise rates, and a weak Treasury auction.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve's next policy decision
   • The release of the US budget report
   • The evolution of Treasury yields
   Sources used for this update (18)

   1. Fortune — Here's how much worse U.S. debt could get as Treasury yields surge to the highest levels in two decades
   2. IndexBox — Rising Interest Rates: Impact on Savers, Borrowers, and the U.S. Fiscal Outlook
   3. tokenpost.com — Higher Rates Would Lift U.S. Debt to 222% of GDP by 2056
   4. Japan Today — U.S. consumers and businesses are now facing a future of more expensive borrowing
   5. Bloomberg — The Rising Cost of Money Is Seeping Into Everything
   6. fortune.com — The US economy is stuck on a hamster wheel as GDP must outrun borrowing costs—or risk a debt spiral
   7. marketplace.org — What happens to the deficit and national debt if interest rates stay high?
   8. Inshorts — US debt interest hits $1 trillion, deficit nears $2 trillion | Tap to know more | Inshorts
   9. www.cnbc.com — Higher Treasury yields deliver reality check on hot economy ...
   10. fortune.com — Here's how much worse US debt could get as bond yields surge ...
   11. www.crfb.org — CBO: 1% Higher Interest Rates Add Trillions to Debt
   12. www.budget.senate.gov — CBO Issues Scary As Hell New Debt Projections That Will ...
   confidence 85%