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● TRACKER Updated 4d ago · 34 sources tracked

Here's why experts are warning California about 'The Big One'

Researchers agree that a massive earthquake along the San Andreas fault, known as The Big One, will occur. While the event is certain, scientists state that predicting the exact timing of the quake is near-impossible. This certainty follows previous findings that a magnitude 9 event could trigger a secondary major earthquake, creating a chain reaction across the West Coast. The threat remains high as experts shift focus from the directional force of supershear quakes to the interactions between different fault systems.

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What changed

Scientists have reaffirmed the certainty of the event while noting the impossibility of pinpointing its timing.

Live updates

  1. Scientists confirm inevitability of San Andreas fault earthquake

    Researchers agree that a massive earthquake along the San Andreas fault, known as The Big One, will occur. While the event is certain, scientists state that predicting the exact timing of the quake is near-impossible. This certainty follows previous findings that a magnitude 9 event could trigger a secondary major earthquake, creating a chain reaction across the West Coast. The threat remains high as experts shift focus from the directional force of supershear quakes to the interactions between different fault systems.

    Why it matters

    California faces compounding geological risks. An emergency landslide in Rancho Palos Verdes has already cut gas and electricity to local homes. The potential for interacting fault systems increases the risk of widespread devastation.

    Still unconfirmed

    • A massive California earthquake along the San Andreas fault is going to happen.

    What to watch next

    • New data on fault system interactions
    • Updates on the Rancho Palos Verdes landslide
    • Peer-reviewed timing models for the San Andreas fault
    Sources used for this update (5)
    1. www.nbcnews.com — Meet the Press – August 2, 2026
    2. fullmeasure.news — Fluoride Florida
    3. abc7chicago.com — 'The Big One' is coming, but when? Study suggests major California earthquake could hit sooner than later
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    confidence 80%

  2. Scientists Warn Magnitude 9 Earthquake Could Trigger Second Major Fault Rupture

    A new study indicates a magnitude 9 earthquake could trigger a second major event along the San Andreas Fault. This potential chain reaction increases the risk of devastation across the West Coast. While experts previously focused on the directional force of supershear earthquakes, the current threat involves the interaction between different fault systems. This risk coincides with other regional instabilities, including an emergency landslide in Rancho Palos Verdes that has already forced the disconnection of gas and electrical services for local homes.

    Why it matters

    California building codes currently fail to account for the specific forces generated by explosive supershear ruptures. Seismic activity has increased recently, prompting warnings about the state's lack of preparedness. The interaction between the Cascadia subduction zone and the San Andreas Fault remains a critical area of study.

    Still unconfirmed

    • A magnitude 9 earthquake could trigger a second major San Andreas Fault earthquake along the West Coast.
    • A months-long landslide in Rancho Palos Verdes led to the loss of electrical and gas services for some homes.

    What to watch next

    • Updated seismic risk assessments for the San Andreas Fault
    • Changes to California building codes regarding directional force
    • Emergency response updates for the Rancho Palos Verdes landslide
    Sources used for this update (6)
    1. www.nbcnews.com — Trump talks about Blanche’s AG nomination and Iran at Camp David Cabinet meeting
    2. tucson.com — Arizona man languishes in African hotel after third-country deportation
    3. www.thetechedvocate.org — Unmasking the $4.99 Million Cyber Threat: Your Data’s Horrifying Future
    4. nypost.com — Odds of magnitude 9 earthquake that would devastate West Coast spike after ‘unusual’ finding: study
    5. apnews.com — Worsening California landslide gets emergency declaration
    6. apnews.com — Texas’ clash with the Biden administration over Border Patrol access; AP Explains
    confidence 70%

  3. Experts warn California of 'The Big One' earthquake threat

    Experts warn that supershear earthquakes could cause catastrophic shaking in California. Current building codes do not account for the directional force of these explosive ruptures. Recent seismic activity has renewed concerns over preparedness.

    Sources used for this update (9)
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    6. The east London town threatened by wildfires where residents fear evacuation
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    9. Lawyers Reveal The Most Disturbing Cases They've Ever Worked On
    confidence 50%

  4. USC Researchers Warn of Faster Supershear Earthquakes in California

    Experts warn that supershear earthquakes moving faster than seismic waves could cause catastrophic shaking. Current building codes do not account for the directional force of these explosive ruptures. Recent seismic activity in the Bay Area and disasters in Venezuela have renewed concerns over preparedness.

    What's confirmed:

    • USC researchers warn that faults capable of magnitude 7 quakes might produce supershear ruptures.
    • Current construction standards do not account for the directional force of supershear earthquakes.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Recent earthquakes in Venezuela exposed preparedness gaps in California.
    Sources used for this update (6)
    1. California's next big one could be faster and far more destructive
    2. California braces for the 'Big One': Seismologists warn of a massive ...
    3. Earthquake swarms rattle California. What it means for the Big One ...
    4. Venezuela Earthquakes Renew Fears About California's Big One
    5. California's Next Big One Could Be Faster And Far More Destructive
    6. The Big One Earthquake in California: What Seismologists Actually Fear ...
    confidence 85%

  5. California Implements Early Warning Systems Amid Seismic Pressure

    California fault lines are under the highest pressure seen in a millennium. The state has deployed an early warning system that has provided alerts to over one million people. Experts continue to warn that a major rupture in the Southland is overdue.

    What's confirmed:

    • California's Earthquake Early Warning System provided advance alerts to more than one million people.
    • The USGS monitors and reports on earthquakes and assesses earthquake hazards.
    • Earthquakes have gradually reshaped California over centuries.
    Sources used for this update (4)
    1. California earthquakes have shifted the state for centuries
    2. California - News and updates from Cal OES
    3. Earthquake Hazards Program | U.S. Geological Survey
    4. ShakeAlert® - USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
    confidence 100%

  6. California Faults Reach Highest Stress Levels in 1,000 Years

    Scientists report that California fault lines are under the highest pressure seen in a millennium. Experts warn that a fault rupture in the Southland is overdue due to this accumulated stress. This situation has increased warnings regarding a potential major earthquake known as The Big One.

    What's confirmed:

    • California faults have reached their highest stress levels in 1,000 years.
    • The San Andreas fault is under more stress than it has been in 1,000 years.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • A Cascadia quake might trigger the San Andreas fault soon after.
    • A CSUB professor has urged Kern County to follow drop, cover and hold on guidance.
    • A fault rupture in the Southland is overdue.
    Sources used for this update (11)
    1. CSUB professor urges Kern County to plan ahead and follow drop, cover and hold on guidance
    2. A Millennium of Pressure Has Been Building Under California Fault Lines. What Does That Mean for Earthquake Risk?
    3. Scientists discover an earthquake gate as California faults reach their highest stress levels in 1,000 years
    4. Dangerous Fault Lines in California at Highest Pressure in 1,000 Years ...
    5. Here's why experts are warning California about 'The Big One'
    6. The ‘earthquake gate’ stopping a San Andreas disaster is under its highest stress in 1,000 years
    7. Here's why experts are warning California about 'The Big One' — and ...
    8. Here's why experts are warning California about 'The Big One'
    9. Major California Earthquake Risk: How Strong Could the Next Big One Be?
    10. Maps show California earthquake risk, 'critically loaded' faults
    11. The "Really Big One" Might Trigger California's Next Catastrophe ...
    confidence 90%