Home sales are the lowest they’ve been all year even though inventory is at a 7-year high
Pending home sales hit a record low in September 2026 as contract signings fell 7.3 percent from August. Would-be buyers pulled back from the market as mortgage rates stayed in the mid-7 percent range, driving sales down 11.3 percent compared to September 2025. This steep drop marks the worst month for pending home sales on record. While buyers faced severe affordability barriers and sales volumes across the country reached their lowest levels since 2014, homebuilder stocks surged on the same day the data dropped.
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- ✓ Pending home sales fell 7.3 percent in September compared to August.
- ✓ Contract signings were down 11.3 percent in September 2026 compared to September 2025.
- ✓ Mortgage rates remain in the mid-7 percent range.
What changed
Contract signings dropped 7.3 percent in September, establishing the worst month for pending home sales on record.
Live updates
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Pending Home Sales Drop to Record Low in September
Pending home sales hit a record low in September 2026 as contract signings fell 7.3 percent from August. Would-be buyers pulled back from the market as mortgage rates stayed in the mid-7 percent range, driving sales down 11.3 percent compared to September 2025. This steep drop marks the worst month for pending home sales on record. While buyers faced severe affordability barriers and sales volumes across the country reached their lowest levels since 2014, homebuilder stocks surged on the same day the data dropped.
Why it matters
The housing market faces deep distress as rising borrowing costs and stubborn pricing keep buyers on the sidelines. Previous reporting showed mortgage rates climbing above 7 percent compared to the mid-6 percent range a year prior. This squeeze has pushed homebuilder sentiment down to levels not seen since June 2012, even as inventory climbs to a seven-year high.
What is confirmed
- Pending home sales fell 7.3 percent in September compared to August.
- Contract signings were down 11.3 percent in September 2026 compared to September 2025.
- Mortgage rates remain in the mid-7 percent range.
Still unconfirmed
- Traders are betting on a future recovery for the housing sector despite the poor sales data, causing homebuilder stocks to surge.
What to watch next
- Whether mortgage rates move out of the mid-7 percent range
- Future shifts in homebuilder stock valuations relative to housing data
- Upcoming construction and inventory reports
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (4)
- abcnews.com — Americans are struggling to buy homes amid rising costs
- finance.yahoo.com — Pending Home Sales Plunge to All-Time Low in Troubling Sign ...
- www.redfin.com — U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink to a New Low
- finance.yahoo.com — Home Sales Contracts Just Fell to a Record Low as Mortgage ...
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September Housing Market Freezes as Sales Slide to 2014 Lows
September housing market data reveals deep distress as sales, construction, and sentiment fall past expectations. Pending home sales dropped 7.3 percent during the month as mortgage rates climbed above 7 percent. This increase follows a period a year prior when rates hovered in the mid-6 percent range. The market slowdown touches multiple areas of the sector, pushing homebuilder sentiment to its lowest level since June 2012. Builders face heavy pressure as persistent affordability barriers force buyers to the sidelines. Sales volumes across the country have now reached their lowest level since 2014.
Why it matters
Mortgage rates above 7 percent have stalled momentum in the American housing sector, overriding gains in inventory. Higher borrowing costs restrict buyer purchasing power, leading to widespread contract cancellations and declining sales. Homebuilders respond to weak demand by cutting back activity, which reduces construction output. The ongoing market freeze contrasts with previous years when borrowing costs were lower, indicating that high financing expenses remain the primary obstacle for purchasers.
What is confirmed
- Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September 2026.
- Homebuilder sentiment fell to its lowest level since June 2012.
Still unconfirmed
- Mortgage rates have bounded above 7% after previously resting in the mid-6% range a year ago.
What to watch next
- Further movements in national mortgage rates
- Upcoming homebuilder sentiment surveys for October
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (7)
- www.cnbc.com — September data shows housing market in a deep freeze - CNBC
- www.businessinsider.com — Housing Market Warning: Homebuilder Sentiment Drops to 14 ...
- realtynewsreport.com — Home Sales Slide to Lowest Level Since 2014 - Realty News Report
- realestatetoday.com — Pending Home Sales Drop 7.3% as Buyers Hesitate Across the U.S.
- finance.yahoo.com — Spotify (SPOT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
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California Home Sales Dip as Mortgage Rates and Prices Stifle Demand
Home sales are slowing across the United States as rising mortgage rates and stubborn prices discourage buyers. In California, existing single-family home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 260,410 in September, a 3.4% decrease from August's 269,620. While some reports indicate more homes are available for sale, affordability challenges continue to weigh on demand. This trend mirrors a broader national decline where pending sales recently hit their lowest point since 2014, excluding the 2020 pandemic freeze.
Why it matters
High borrowing costs have priced out many prospective buyers despite fluctuations in inventory. The market is struggling to find a balance between available housing stock and buyer purchasing power. This stagnation follows a period where existing home sales declined 2.2% year over year.
What is confirmed
- California single-family home sales totaled 260,410 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate.
- Existing single-family home sales in California dropped 3.4% from August's 269,620.
- Rising mortgage rates and persistent affordability challenges are weighing on buyer demand.
Still unconfirmed
- Housing inventory is at a 7-year high.
- Mortgage rates have climbed above 7 percent.
What to watch next
- October home sales data for California and the broader U.S.
- Changes in mortgage rate trends affecting buyer affordability
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (5)
- thebalancedreport.com — America’s Housing Market Is Changing: More Homes for Sale ...
- www.housingwire.com — Falling housing inventory masks weakening buyer demand
- www.housingwire.com — Housing Market Tracker - HousingWire
- MyNewsLA.com — Home Sales Slow Across Southland - MyNewsLA.com
- www.bozemandailychronicle.com — Chronicle Q&A: Senate hopefuls offer different takes in crowded race
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US Pending Home Sales Drop to Near 12-Year Low Amid High Rates
United States pending home sales dropped to their lowest point since 2014, excluding the pandemic freeze in 2020. Redfin reports that mortgage rates climbed above 7 percent, pricing out would-be buyers. Existing home sales previously rose by 1.5 percent month over month in September according to National Association of Realtors data, but declined 2.2 percent compared to the previous year. High home prices continued to discourage prospective buyers while existing inventory sits at 1.6 million, remaining below the normal range of 2 to 2.5 million.
Why it matters
The housing market faces friction as elevated borrowing costs and high prices stall buyer demand despite expanding housing choices. Pending sales data captures transactions where a contract has been signed but the sale has not yet closed, serving as a forward-looking indicator for closed sales. Redfin notes that rising mortgage rates, softening prices, and growing inventory are reshaping the broader national housing market.
What is confirmed
- U.S. pending home sales fell to near 12-year lows not seen since 2014, excluding the 2020 pandemic freeze, according to Redfin.
- Mortgage rates climbed above 7 percent and priced out prospective buyers, according to Redfin.
- Existing home sales rose by 1.5 percent month over month in September according to National Association of Realtors data, but declined 2.2 percent compared to the previous year.
- Existing inventory sits at 1.6 million, which remains below the normal range of 2 to 2.5 million.
- M&T Bank reported Q3 2026 earnings featuring $5.04 EPS, 2 percent loan growth, and a 3.65 percent net interest margin.
What to watch next
- Future National Association of Realtors data releases tracking whether inventory surpasses the 1.6 million mark.
- Subsequent Redfin tracking to see if pending home sales drop further below 2014 levels.
- Upcoming mortgage rate movements to determine if rates remain above 7 percent.
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (3)
- www.tradingkey.com — M&T Bank (MTB) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Loan Growth and Q4 NII Guidance
- www.tradingkey.com — M&T 뱅크(MTB) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 대출 성장 및 4분기 순이자이익(NII) 가이던스
- themortgagepoint.com — Pending Home Sales Fall to Near 12-Year Low - The MortgagePoint
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US Home Sales Remain Stalled as Mortgage Rates Hit 7%
Existing home sales rose by 1.5% month over month in September according to National Association of Realtors data, but declined 2.2% compared to the previous year. The past two months ended as the slowest of the year for existing home sales. Mortgage rates climbed to 7%, while high home prices continued to discourage prospective buyers. Existing inventory sits at 1.6 million, which remains below the normal range of 2 to 2.5 million.
Why it matters
The housing market has remained in a slump since 2022 when mortgage rates began climbing from pandemic-era lows. Despite inventory reaching a seven-year high due to a lack of buyer demand rather than new listings, high borrowing costs and elevated prices are keeping the market stalled.
What is confirmed
- Existing home sales rose 1.5% month over month in September.
- Existing home sales fell 2.2% year over year.
- Mortgage rates hit 7%.
- Inventory is at 1.6 million versus 2 to 2.5 million normally.
Still unconfirmed
- Price cuts are becoming more common, especially in Western US cities.
What to watch next
- Further movements in mortgage rates
- Subsequent monthly existing home sales data from the National Association of Realtors
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (7)
- nypost.com — Home sales slowed last month — as mortgage rates climbed: ‘Very tough market out there’
- www.realestatenews.com — Existing home sales ticked up slightly — then rates hit 7%
- wolfstreet.com — Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Scrape along Bottom of ...
- fortune.com — 'A very tough market': U.S. home sales fell 2.2% from last ...
- www.housingwire.com — Existing home sales beat estimates, but don't reflect recent ...
- finance.yahoo.com — Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- www.cnbc.com — This ugly shoe brand won over Gen Z. Its stock's low valuation could earn investors' attention
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Home sales hit lowest point this year as inventory reaches 7-year high
Existing home sales have dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, with high mortgage rates and rising home prices discouraging buyers. Inventory is at a 7-year high, driven by a lack of buyer demand rather than new listings. Price cuts are becoming more common, especially in Western US cities.
Why it matters
The housing market is experiencing a slowdown, with sales volume dropping 1.8% in August compared to the same month last year. This trend is attributed to high mortgage rates and rising home prices. The current inventory peak is a result of decreased buyer demand.
What is confirmed
- Existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August.
- Inventory is at a 7-year high, driven by a lack of buyer demand rather than new listings.
- Price cuts are becoming more common in housing markets across the US.
- California saw 23,600 escrows close for new and resale home transactions in August 2026.
- Sales volume in August dropped 1.8% below the same month one year earlier.
Still unconfirmed
- Gartner forecasts that by 2030, only 5% of organizations implementing some form of supply chain planning automation will make at least 10% of their planning decisions autonomously.
What to watch next
- Changes in mortgage rates and their impact on buyer demand
- Housing market trends in Western US cities
- Inventory levels and price adjustments in the coming months
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (13)
- www.cnbc.com — Housing Market News - CNBC
- home.google.com — Your Smart Home, Powered by Gemini | Google Home
- www.scdigest.com — Move to Autonomous Supply Chain Planning will be Slow Gartner Say
- www.businessinsider.com — Home Prices Are Falling the Most in These Metro Areas As ...
- www.redfin.com — Redfin Real Estate News
- fred.stlouisfed.org — Housing Inventory: Median Listing Price in the United States
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- journal.firsttuesday.us — California home sales volume | firsttuesday Journal
- www.rismedia.com — Price Cuts Reach September Record as Inventory Nears Pre ...
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US Home Sales Hit Annual Low Despite Seven-Year Inventory Peak
Existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August, the lowest level in 14 months. High mortgage rates and rising home prices have discouraged buyers, creating a surplus of homes. This inventory peak is driven by a lack of buyer demand rather than an increase in new listings. Recent weekly data indicates that national housing demand continues to weaken, though price reductions are most frequent in five cities west of the Mississippi River.
Why it matters
The current market imbalance persists as high borrowing costs clash with elevated home values. This trend shifts the leverage toward buyers in specific regions, despite a general national decline in activity.
What is confirmed
- Existing home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August.
- Housing inventory has reached a seven-year high.
Still unconfirmed
- Five cities west of the Mississippi have the highest rates of home price reductions.
- National housing demand weakened in the latest weekly data.
What to watch next
- Changes in mortgage rates that may incentivize buyers
- New data on whether inventory increases are driven by new listings
- Updates on home price trends from the FHFA House Price Index
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (7)
- www.realtor.com — Weekly Housing Trends - Realtor.com Economic Research
- homestats.app — U.S. Housing Market Dashboard | HomeStats
- www.fhfa.gov — FHFA House Price Index® | U.S. FEDERAL HOUSING
- www.housingwire.com — Pending home sales fall as housing demand weakens
- www.zdnet.com — Best Garmin watch deals to shop for October Prime Day 2026
- finance.yahoo.com — Have factors fallen into place for the housing market to ...
- fred.stlouisfed.org — Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count Year-Over-Year in the ...
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US Home Sales Hit 14-Month Low as Mortgage Rates and Prices Deter Buyers
Home sales in the US have fallen to their lowest level in 14 months, with existing home sales reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August. This decline is attributed to high mortgage rates and rising home prices, which have discouraged buyers. Despite housing inventory reaching a 7-year high, the market is experiencing a surplus of homes due to a lack of buyers rather than an increase in new listings.
Why it matters
The current market conditions differ from those that led to the 2008 housing crash. The National Association of Home Builders reports that there are 6.2 million second homes in the US, accounting for 4.3% of the nation's housing stock. Builders are offering deals, including lower prices and incentives, to attract buyers.
What is confirmed
- Existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August 2026.
- The number of second homes in the US was 6.2 million in 2024, accounting for 4.3% of the nation's housing stock.
- Inventory of single-family homes at all stages of construction rose year-over-year to 487,000, not seasonally adjusted.
- New single-family home sales rose 6.4% in August from July, reaching 684,000 units.
- Price cuts hit a record for September, with 20.8% of listings seeing reductions amid elevated mortgage rates and growing inventory.
Still unconfirmed
- Home builders are offering deals on mortgage rates to attract buyers.
What to watch next
- September 2026 housing market trends and sales data
- Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve
- Housing inventory levels and price changes in the coming months
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (13)
- eyeonhousing.org — Eye On Housing - National Association of Home Builders Discusses ...
- realestatean.com — 2026 Housing Market Trends: What Buyers and Sellers Should Know
- www.livemint.com — Best of the Week | The Tata boardroom coup: How a 3-hour meeting shook India's biggest conglomerate
- www.eagletribune.com — US home sales weaken to slowest pace in more than a year as mortgage rates, home prices climb
- wolfstreet.com — What the Infamous “Housing Shortage” Looks Like: Inventories of New Single-Family Homes Balloon, Sale....
- www.thetrading.tools — Existing Home Sales: Chart, Current Level & History ...
- www.cnbctv18.com — US new home sales jump 6.4% in August as prices ... - CNBCTV18
- www.housingwire.com — New homes still cost less than resales in many U.S. markets
- finance.yahoo.com — New-Home Sales Rise as Builders Offer Deals on Mortgage Rates
- ca.sports.yahoo.com — MLB's worst nightmare tops list of best potential World Series matchups
- www.foxbusiness.com — More homes, more price cuts – but buyers still aren't biting as mortgage rates climb
- finance.yahoo.com — Price Cuts Reach Yearly High as Inventory Nears Pre-Pandemic ...
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Housing inventory hits 7-year high as sales drop to yearly lows
Home sales have fallen to their lowest level of the year despite housing inventory reaching a seven-year high. High mortgage rates and climbing prices have deterred buyers, forcing home builders to lower prices on new constructions to attract interest. This surplus stems from a lack of buyers rather than a surge in new listings. While existing home sales hit a 14-month low in August, the current market conditions differ from the factors that caused the 2008 housing crash.
Why it matters
The imbalance between high inventory and low demand creates a counterintuitive environment for potential homeowners. Borrowing costs remain a primary barrier to entry. This shift challenges long-standing financial assumptions regarding the benefits of homeownership over renting.
What is confirmed
- Housing inventory has reached a seven-year high.
- Existing home sales reached a 14-month low in August.
- Home builders are reducing prices on new constructions to attract buyers.
Still unconfirmed
- The current housing market differs from the one that led to the 2008 housing crash.
What to watch next
- Changes in mortgage rates
- New data on existing home sales volumes
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (4)
- finance.yahoo.com — Will the housing market crash this year?
- www.tradingkey.com — Costco (COST) Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Call: Sales Rise 11.2%, Expansion Accelerates
- www.thetechedvocate.org — The Renting vs Buying 2026 Conundrum: What You Need to Know Now
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Home Builders Slash Prices as Mortgage Rates Spook Buyers
Home builders are reducing prices on new constructions to attract buyers deterred by high mortgage rates. This trend persists despite rising costs for construction. These price cuts follow a broader market slump where existing home sales hit a 14-month low in August. While housing inventory reached a seven-year high, the market remains weak due to a combination of climbing prices and expensive borrowing costs. The current surplus is driven by a lack of buyers rather than an increase in available listings.
Why it matters
The US housing market is struggling with a disconnect between available inventory and buyer affordability. High mortgage rates have created a barrier for entry, forcing sellers and builders to adjust pricing strategies. This follows a period of significant price growth that has now collided with tighter credit conditions.
Still unconfirmed
- A rising share of home builders are slashing prices on new builds despite higher construction costs.
What to watch next
- Changes in mortgage rate trends
- New data on existing home sales for September
- Reports on builder price-cut percentages
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (3)
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US Home Sales Drop to Multi-Year Lows Amid High Rates
US existing home sales dropped in August, reaching a 14-month low and the weakest pace of the year. This slowdown occurred despite housing inventory hitting a seven-year high. Rising mortgage rates and climbing prices combined to weaken the housing market last month. US existing home sales declined by 2 percent. At the same time, the US home seller surplus reached 58 percent in August, driven primarily by low buyer numbers rather than a flood of new property listings.
Why it matters
The cooling housing market reflects ongoing affordability pressures as borrowing costs remain elevated. Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in over a year, discouraging buyers despite growing options on the market. Market analysts continue to monitor whether this housing sector weakness will eventually spill over into broader financial assets like stocks and bitcoin.
What is confirmed
- US existing home sales dropped to a 14-month low in August.
- Home sales fell by 2 percent.
- Mortgage rates reached their highest level in over a year.
- Inventory reached a seven-year high.
- The US home seller surplus hit 58 percent in August.
What to watch next
- Further movements in mortgage rates and home prices
- Potential spillover effects from the housing slowdown onto stock and bitcoin prices
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (7)
- Yahoo Finance — Home sales dropped last month as mortgage rates reached highest level in over a year
- KITCO — gold off its lows but largely ignores 2% drop in U.S. existing home sales
- Reuters — US existing home sales drop to 14-month low in August
- The Guardian — US home sales weaken to slowest pace in more than a year as mortgage rates and prices climb
- Bloomberg.com — US Existing Home Sales Slide to Weakest in More Than a Year
- MarketWatch — Home sales are the lowest they’ve been all year even though inventory is at a 7-year high
- finance.yahoo.com — US Housing Market Is Breaking. Will It Impact Stocks and Bitcoin Prices?
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