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How Merkel and Merz lost eastern Germany to the AfD

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a landslide victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections. Led by 35-year-old candidate Ulrich Siegmund, the party achieved its strongest showing to date by leveraging nativist appeals and opposition to immigration. The win challenges the political center and tests the established firewall against far-right cooperation. While the victory has roots in eastern Germany, economic insecurity is fueling the party's rise nationwide. Germany now faces the question of whether the AfD can govern or if it poses a threat to democracy.

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What changed

Ulrich Siegmund is confirmed as the 35-year-old charismatic lead candidate who propelled the AfD to a landslide victory.

Live updates

  1. AfD Wins Landslide Victory in Saxony-Anhalt State Election

    The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a landslide victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections. Led by 35-year-old candidate Ulrich Siegmund, the party achieved its strongest showing to date by leveraging nativist appeals and opposition to immigration. The win challenges the political center and tests the established firewall against far-right cooperation. While the victory has roots in eastern Germany, economic insecurity is fueling the party's rise nationwide. Germany now faces the question of whether the AfD can govern or if it poses a threat to democracy.

    Why it matters

    This result marks a potential shift in Germany's postwar political order. A state-level victory for a far-right party would be the first since the end of World War II. The outcome puts pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the mainstream establishment.

    What is confirmed

    • The AfD won a landslide victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election.
    • Ulrich Siegmund led the Alternative for Germany to its strongest showing yet.
    • The AfD built its constituency through nativist appeal and opposition to immigration.

    Still unconfirmed

    • The AfD seeks to relativize Germany's Nazi past.

    What to watch next

    • Whether the AfD can successfully form a government in Saxony-Anhalt
    • The reaction of the political center to the breach of the cooperation firewall
    Sources used for this update (7)
    1. time.com — The AfD Is Rising. Germany’s Political Center Is Failing.
    2. www.chicagotribune.com — AfD party’s landslide win in eastern Germany tests country’s ‘firewall’ against the far right
    3. www.clickondetroit.com — Charismatic candidate propels German far-right party to victory after giving it a friendly face
    4. thefridaytimes.com — Germany At The Crossroads: Merz, The AfD And The Fracturing Of The Postwar Centre
    5. www.usatoday.com — Far-right election win leaves Germany's leader Merz shaken
    6. www.csmonitor.com — After landslide far-right victory, Germany asks: What just happened?
    7. www.opendemocracy.net — Germany’s far-right surge is not just about the East
    confidence 90%
  2. AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt election in potential post-WWII first

    The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged into first place in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections on Sunday. Under lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, the party is projected to win, marking a major breakthrough against Germany's mainstream political establishment. While the AfD has polled ahead for months, exit polls indicate uncertainty regarding whether the party can form a government on its own. If successful, this would be the first time a far-right party has taken power at a state level since the end of World War II.

    Why it matters

    The election serves as a test of the political legacies of Angela Merkel and Friedrich Merz in eastern Germany. A victory for the AfD signals a shift in regional power and challenges the post-war political order. The outcome depends partly on whether smaller parties meet the 5% parliamentary threshold.

    What is confirmed

    • The AfD surged into first place in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections on Sunday.
    • This election could result in the first far-right state government in Germany since World War II.
    • Ulrich Siegmund is the 35-year-old lead candidate for the AfD.

    Still unconfirmed

    • The AfD may take an absolute majority if several smaller parties fail to clear the 5% threshold.
    • The AfD may be unable to form a government on its own despite winning.

    What to watch next

    • Official certification of the final vote count
    • Confirmation of whether the AfD achieved an absolute majority
    • Coalition negotiations or government formation announcements in Saxony-Anhalt
    Sources used for this update (6)
    1. en.vijesti.me — How Merkel and Merck lost the east to the AfD
    2. apnews.com — German region votes in election that could bring first far-right state governor to power
    3. www.cnbc.com — Germany's far-right AfD seeks landmark state victory as Saxony-Anhalt votes
    4. www.newsweek.com — Germany Election: AFD Wins, May Be First Far-Right Party in Power Since WW2
    5. www.cnn.com — Germany’s far-right AfD projected to win eastern state but unclear if it will be able to govern
    6. www.dailymail.com — SUE REID: Germany in shock as hard-Right party stands on the brink of power
    confidence 90%
  3. AfD Targets Eastern German States in Regional Elections

    The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is pursuing a political breakthrough in eastern Germany, specifically targeting Saxony-Anhalt and other state elections. The party is positioning itself against the legacies of Angela Merkel and the current leadership of Friedrich Merz. While the AfD seeks to win state-level power, its campaign includes targets such as the Bauhaus school and efforts to shift the national narrative regarding Germany's Nazi past. Minorities have expressed fear that a potential victory could signal a broader shift in the country's political direction.

    Why it matters

    Eastern Germany has become a stronghold for the AfD as voters distance themselves from traditional centrist parties. These regional elections serve as a bellwether for the party's ability to govern and its influence over national policy. The tension centers on the conflict between far-right nationalism and Germany's established democratic norms.

    Still unconfirmed

    • The AfD has plans for Saxony-Anhalt.
    • Friedrich Merz is expected to lose the regional election regardless of the final result.
    • A far-right leader is pushing Germans to forget the Nazi past.
    • The AfD is targeting the Bauhaus school ahead of a state election.

    What to watch next

    • The results of the Sunday regional elections.
    • Official government responses to AfD campaign targets.
    • Statements from minority groups following election outcomes.
    Sources used for this update (10)
    1. The Economist — The Alternative for Germany has plans for Saxony-Anhalt
    2. politico.eu — How Merkel and Merz lost eastern Germany to the AfD
    3. The Telegraph — The rise of the Russian German
    4. AP News — German far-right party targets iconic Bauhaus school ahead of landmark state election
    5. Reuters — Germany's far-right AfD aims for breakthrough in state election
    6. politico.eu — The far-right leader pushing Germans to forget the Nazi past
    7. European Council on Foreign Relations — Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare
    8. The Guardian — ‘This could just be the beginning’: minorities fear first far-right win in German state election
    9. politico.eu — Friedrich Merz will lose Sunday’s regional election — whatever the result
    10. The New York Times — Opinion | Something Alarming Is About to Happen in Germany
    confidence 60%