Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023
Americans expect higher near-term inflation following a jump in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey. The median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 3.9% in September, moving up from 3.6% in August. This figure marks the highest reading recorded since May 2023. Along with the short-term inflation outlook, the survey revealed that expected household spending growth reached a three-year peak. Meanwhile, broader labor market expectations showed improvement during the same monthly polling period.
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- ✓ The median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9% in September, up from 3.6% in August according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- ✓ Expected household spending growth hit a three-year peak in the same survey.
- ✓ Short- and medium-term inflation expectations increased while labor market expectations improved.
What changed
The median one-year inflation outlook climbed to 3.9% in the September New York Fed survey, reaching its highest level since May 2023.
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US Inflation Expectations Hit Three-Year High in Fed Survey
Americans expect higher near-term inflation following a jump in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey. The median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 3.9% in September, moving up from 3.6% in August. This figure marks the highest reading recorded since May 2023. Along with the short-term inflation outlook, the survey revealed that expected household spending growth reached a three-year peak. Meanwhile, broader labor market expectations showed improvement during the same monthly polling period.
Why it matters
The Survey of Consumer Expectations provides insight into public sentiment regarding price stability and economic pressures. These shifting consumer views arrive as policymakers monitor cost trends across the country. Higher short-term expectations can influence broader wage and purchasing behavior.
What is confirmed
- The median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9% in September, up from 3.6% in August according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Expected household spending growth hit a three-year peak in the same survey.
- Short- and medium-term inflation expectations increased while labor market expectations improved.
What to watch next
- Upcoming Consumer Price Index releases to verify if public inflation fears align with actual price trends.
- Subsequent Federal Reserve surveys to track whether the three-year high in one-year inflation expectations persists.
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (17)
- www.newyorkfed.org — Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Increase; Labor Market Expectations Improve
- CNBC — Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023
- Bloomberg.com — Short-Term Inflation Expectations Reach Three-Year High, NY Fed Survey Says
- Reuters — NY Fed September survey finds public expecting more near-term inflation
- Forex Factory — US: Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Increase; Labor Market Expectations Improve
- Investopedia — Are Rising Inflation Fears A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
- www.cnbc.com — Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey ...
- ca.finance.yahoo.com — Brighthouse Financial, Inc. BHF Stock Forecast & Price Target
- ground.news — Delta Air Slashes Profit Forecast over Fuel-Cost Surge
- finance.yahoo.com — Inflation Fears Surge Again: Americans' One-Year Outlook Hits ...
- www.europesays.com — Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey ...
- investinglive.com — New York Fed inflation expectations: One year inflation ...
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