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Interest rates stay steady for now, but more Fed officials are signaling hikes later this year

The Federal Reserve kept its key rate unchanged during Chairman Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting. Nearly half of the policymakers indicated they might support a rate increase later this year. U.S. Treasury yields rose following the announcement.

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What changed

New data specifies that almost half of policymakers support a potential rate hike this year.

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  1. Federal Reserve maintains interest rates amid signals for future hikes

    The Federal Reserve kept its key rate unchanged during Chairman Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting. Nearly half of the policymakers indicated they might support a rate increase later this year. U.S. Treasury yields rose following the announcement.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady during Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman.
    • U.S. Treasury yields increased on Wednesday after the Fed decision.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Almost half of central bank policymakers said they could support a rate hike later this year.
    confidence 90%
  2. Fed maintains rates as officials signal potential hikes

    The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady during Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting. Officials indicated the next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut. This shift follows inflation reaching its highest level in years.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady during the first FOMC meeting led by Chair Kevin Warsh.
    • Central bank officials indicated that the next move might be a rate hike instead of a cut.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Inflation has hit its highest level in years.
    • Officials expect inflation to stay elevated through the end of 2026.
    • Nearly half of policymakers might support a rate increase later this year.
    confidence 90%
  3. Fed Holds Rates Steady as Officials Signal Potential Future Hikes

    The Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate during the first meeting led by Chair Kevin Warsh. Officials expect inflation to stay elevated through the end of 2026. Nearly half of policymakers indicated they might support a rate increase later this year.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged during its June meeting.
    • Kevin Warsh led his first Federal Reserve meeting as chairman.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Fed officials expect inflation to remain elevated through the end of the year.
    • Half of the central bank's policymakers could support a rate hike later this year.
    • The potential for rate hikes suggests heightened concerns about persistent inflation.
    confidence 90%
  4. Federal Reserve maintains interest rates in first meeting under Kevin Warsh

    The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady during its June meeting. This marks the first session led by new Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision follows expectations that the new leadership might shift borrowing and savings rates.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in June.
    • Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Donald Trump wants a rate cut.
    confidence 100%
  5. Fed holds rates steady but signals hikes as inflation worries grow

    The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting, citing solid economic growth. New chair Kevin Warsh has abandoned previous guidance, shifting focus toward tighter policy. Markets now anticipate potential rate hikes later this year, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The decision reflects persistent inflation concerns despite stable economic conditions.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fourth time in 2026, with the Open Markets Committee stating 'economic activity is expanding at a solid pace'.
    • New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has removed forward guidance, signaling a potential shift toward tighter monetary policy.
    • Market expectations have shifted from anticipated rate cuts to a possible hike later this year.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • The Fed’s decision may impact consumer credit and borrowing costs, though specific financial effects remain unclear.
    confidence 93%
  6. Fed holds rates steady but signals hikes as inflation pressures mount

    The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting, but officials increasingly signal borrowing costs may rise later this year amid persistent inflation concerns. New chair Kevin Warsh has dropped forward guidance, signaling a shift toward tighter policy. Market expectations now lean toward a potential hike in 2026, reversing earlier bets on rate cuts.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Thursday, June 18, 2026, for the fourth consecutive policy meeting.
    • Officials are divided between no cuts this year and the possibility of one or more rate increases, citing higher inflation risks.
    • New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has removed forward guidance, signaling a more data-dependent approach to future rate decisions.
    • Multiple Fed officials now indicate borrowing costs could rise later this year, reversing earlier market expectations of rate cuts.
    • Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, contributing to the shift toward a potential hike.
    • The Fed’s June projections show a split between policymakers who see no cuts this year and those who expect rate increases.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Former President Donald Trump has reportedly pressured Warsh over rate decisions, adding to internal tensions on the Fed board.
    • Warsh’s leadership style may face resistance from a divided Fed board, though no formal dissent has been recorded.
    • Markets are pricing in a 2026 rate hike, though the Fed has not confirmed a timeline or magnitude.
    confidence 92%