Iran war could last deep into 2027 as the Strait of Hormuz isn't that closed, allowing more oil out

Live updates

1. 19d ago

   Iran drafts conditions to open Strait of Hormuz as regional powers seek off-ramp

   Iran is drafting conditions to open the Strait of Hormuz following requests from mediators. This follows an agreement between Iran and Oman to establish a temporary shipping corridor in the strait. While regional powers seek a way to end the war, tensions remain high as Tehran dismisses recent U.S. sanctions and reports emerge of another tanker attack in the waterway. These developments occur amid projections that the conflict could persist into 2027.

   Why it matters

   The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil artery. Continued instability threatens energy markets, though the U.S. military previously reported facilitating the transit of 660 million barrels of oil since May.

   What is confirmed

   • Iran's deputy foreign minister announced a temporary shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz.
   • Iran is preparing to draft conditions to open the Strait of Hormuz after mediator requests.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Another tanker attack occurred in the Strait of Hormuz.
   • Tehran has dismissed the latest sanctions from Washington.

   What to watch next

   • The specific conditions Iran sets for opening the Strait of Hormuz
   • The formalization of the temporary shipping corridor with Oman
   Sources used for this update (4)

   1. www.foxsports.com — 2027 NASCAR Cup Series Schedule Tracker: Where & When Will NASCAR Race?
   2. www.aljazeera.com — Iran, Oman agree on temporary Hormuz route: What we know
   3. apnews.com — Regional powers seek off-ramp from Iran war, and other Middle East developments
   4. www.aljazeera.com — Iran war live: Tehran prepares conditions to open Strait of Hormuz
   confidence 90%
2. 22d ago

   Iran War May Last Until 2027 as Oil Continues to Flow Through Hormuz

   The conflict between Iran and other nations may persist deep into 2027. Despite threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil passageway, oil continues to flow through the strait. The U.S. military reports aiding the passage of 660 million barrels of oil since May. Ships are still transiting the strait, albeit in small numbers.

   Why it matters

   The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil supplies, with around 20% of the world's oil passing through it. Tensions in the region have been high due to conflicts between Iran and other nations. The U.S. has been involved in operations to ensure the safe passage of oil through the strait.

   What is confirmed

   • The U.S. military has aided the passage of 660 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz since May.
   • Fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz over a weekend.
   • The Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, allowing oil to continue flowing out.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Iran faces a massive new triple-threat as Hormuz begins to open, cash gets tight, and politicians call to end the war.

   What to watch next

   • Further developments in U.S. military operations in the Strait of Hormuz
   • Changes in the number of ships transiting the strait
   • Iran's response to continued oil flow through the strait
   Sources used for this update (10)

   1. Axios — U.S. conducting stealth operation to transport oil through Hormuz
   2. CNBC — U.S. military says it aided passage of 660 million barrels of oil through Strait of Hormuz since May
   3. Al Jazeera — Are ships passing Hormuz more willing to defy Iran or US? What data shows
   4. Reuters — Ships passing through Hormuz hover in single digits, data shows
   5. CNN — How the US and Middle East allies flipped the oil script on Iran
   6. The Hill — Questions rise as US claims deeper control of Strait of Hormuz
   7. Fortune — Iran war could last deep into 2027 as the Strait of Hormuz isn't that closed, allowing more oil out
   8. New York Post — Iran faces massive new triple-threat as Hormuz begins to open, cash gets tight and pols call to end the war
   9. The New York Times — Opinion | Let Iran Control the Strait of Hormuz
   10. Reuters — Fewer than 20 ships transit key Strait of Hormuz over weekend, data shows
   confidence 85%