Is Russia’s fuel crisis a temporary squeeze or the collapse of an industry? Two leading economists debated the question, unable to agree on how much refining capacity is left.

Live updates

1. 12d ago

   Russian Gasoline Output Drops After Ukrainian Drone Strikes

   Russian gasoline production dropped to 70 percent of domestic demand late in August following a series of Ukrainian drone strikes. The attacks have triggered fires at major energy facilities across the country, including the Yaroslavl, Kirishi, and Ust-Luga oil complexes. The resulting fuel shortages have forced ordinary citizens back into long gasoline lines, creating widespread turmoil throughout the summer months as the conflict directly impacts the Russian domestic population.

   Why it matters

   Repeated long-range drone attacks on critical refining infrastructure have exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's energy sector. Leading economists remain divided on whether these sustained blows represent a temporary operational squeeze or a catastrophic structural collapse of the entire refining industry. The severity of the disruption has forced the country into desperately seeking foreign oil imports to cover shortfalls.

   What is confirmed

   • Russian gasoline output fell to 70 percent of domestic demand late in August following drone attacks.
   • Ukrainian drone strikes caused fires at the Yaroslavl oil refinery, the Kirishi oil refinery, and the Ust-Luga port complex.
   • Defense forces confirmed strikes targeting the Kirishi oil refinery and the Yeysk airfield.
   • A Ukrainian drone attack on the Yaroslavl oil refinery resulted in one fatality.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Economists debate whether the current fuel crisis is a temporary squeeze or the total collapse of the Russian refining industry, remaining unable to agree on how much capacity actually remains.

   What to watch next

   • Sustained evidence of oil import volumes entering Russia to offset domestic shortages
   • Further assessments from economists regarding remaining operational refining capacity
   • Additional reported strikes on Russian airfields and energy infrastructure
   Sources used for this update (19)

   1. The Guardian — Ukraine’s drone attacks have left Russia desperately scrambling for oil imports
   2. The Moscow Times — Ukrainian Drone Attack Kills One, Sparks Fire at Yaroslavl Oil Refinery
   3. Bloomberg.com — Ukraine’s Record Strikes Push Russians Back to Gasoline Lines
   4. The Daily Beast — Putin Hit by Record Disaster as Humiliating Crisis Escalates
   5. Reuters — EXCLUSIVE: Russia's gasoline output drops to 70% of domestic demand late in August after drone attacks, sources say
   6. The Kyiv Independent — Major oil refinery, airbase targeted by Ukrainian forces in reported strikes across Russia
   7. Bloomberg.com — Drone Strike Causes Blaze at Oil Refinery in Russia’s Kirishi
   8. Ukrinform — Drones attack Russia’s Leningrad region and Bryansk overnight
   9. Meduza — Is Russia’s fuel crisis a temporary squeeze or the collapse of an industry? Two leading economists debated the question, unable to agree on how much refining capacity is left.
   10. UNITED24 Media — Ukraine Hammers Two Russian Airfields in One Night, Triggering Fires and Ammunition Blasts
   11. Magnolia Tribune — Energy Wars: Attack of the drones
   12. Bloomberg.com — Fire at Russia’s Ust-Luga Extinguished After Drone Attack
   confidence 95%