JPMorgan drops Iran war oil forecast as redlines are crossed

Live updates

1. 30d ago

   Crude Prices Slip Below $75 as Strait of Hormuz Flow Recovers

   Global crude prices fell sharply on Friday, with Brent dropping below $75 a barrel and WTI falling past $70 as fears of supply disruptions eased. Allied crude exports have recovered to roughly 80 percent of prewar levels while Iran exports have dropped to zero. Despite rising regional oil exports, prices remain elevated due to lingering market anxiety over potential escalations, persistent shortages in diesel and refined products, and lowered 2026 demand forecasts amid the ongoing conflict.

   Why it matters

   Gulf oil producers are pushing crude through the Strait of Hormuz with substantial backing from the US Navy, undercutting Iran leverage in the vital shipping lane. At the same time, regional oil exports are climbing back toward prewar norms, though estimates of actual export volumes continue to vary widely between major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, US troops are preparing to depart their final bases in Iraq, while Washington preserves ongoing economic leverage by holding Iraqi oil revenues at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

   What is confirmed

   • Brent crude slipped below $75 a barrel, dropping over 1 percent to $74.33, while US WTI fell more than 2 percent to $70.46.
   • Allied crude exports have recovered to about 80 percent of prewar levels while Iran exports have fallen to zero.
   • Gulf oil producers are moving crude through the Strait of Hormuz with considerable support from the US Navy.
   • US troops are set to leave their last bases in Iraq, but Washington will retain economic leverage through Iraqi oil revenues held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Traders fear Tehran could escalate the conflict by attacking ports, pipelines or oilfields.
   • Oil prices gained more than 2 percent earlier after a cargo ship was struck near Oman.

   What to watch next

   • Whether crude prices stabilize below $75 per barrel or resume climbing amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
   • Developments regarding refined product shortages, particularly diesel and other key derivatives.
   • Actual export volume alignment between JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimates for the Strait of Hormuz.
   Sources used for this update (8)

   1. economictimes.indiatimes.com — oil supply disruptions: Latest News & Videos, Photos about oil supply ...
   2. iranstrikes.com — Oil Price Forecast 2026 — Iran War Predictions
   3. www.nbcnews.com — More oil is getting out of the Middle East. Why is it still so expensive?
   4. finance.yahoo.com — Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz ...
   5. economictimes.indiatimes.com — US IRAN WAR IMPACT OIL PRICES - The Economic Times
   6. oilprice.com — JP Morgan, Goldman Diverge on Hormuz Oil Flow Estimates
   7. cde.news — Oil Prices Drop as Demand Projections Are Lowered for 2026
   8. www.jpmorgan.com — Economic Impact of Iran Conflict on Oil, Gold and More
   confidence 95%
2. 34d ago

   JPMorgan Drops Oil Forecasts as Iran War Breaches Redlines

   JPMorgan has halted reliable oil price forecasting as the ongoing conflict in Iran breaches the bank's economic redlines of one hundred dollar oil, five dollar gas, and five percent Treasury yields. The prolonged war has disrupted roughly a quarter of global oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and affected ten million barrels per day of oil supply, causing extreme volatility where Brent crude has swung between seventy-two and one hundred twenty-six dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, diesel has emerged as a primary concern for markets.

   Why it matters

   The inability of major Wall Street firms to model future crude costs demonstrates how geopolitical shocks can overwhelm traditional financial forecasting models. Amid shifting US-Iran negotiations and an absence of a clear market exit, energy markets face profound instability. Separately, Middle East crude oil flows are returning toward pre-war levels despite continued shipping risks.

   What is confirmed

   • JPMorgan has stopped providing reliable oil price forecasts due to extreme market volatility from the ongoing Iran conflict.
   • The conflict has breached JPMorgan's three economic redlines consisting of one hundred dollar oil, five dollar gas, and five percent Treasury yields.
   • The conflict has disrupted about a quarter of global oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
   • Brent crude has swung from seventy-two to one hundred twenty-six dollars and back to around one hundred dollars per barrel.
   • JPMorgan warns the prolonged Iran war has disrupted ten million barrels per day of oil supply with no clear market exit.
   • Middle East crude oil flows are returning toward pre-war levels despite continued shipping risks.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Diesel is noted as the bigger worry for the bank as prices and supplies face severe pressure.

   What to watch next

   • Developments in US-Iran negotiations and potential shifts in the endgame of the conflict
   • Further data on Middle East crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz
   • Changes in diesel market pressures and inventory levels
   Sources used for this update (8)

   1. finance.yahoo.com — 'We simply don't know': JPMorgan waves the white flag forecasting where oil prices will go due to Iran Wa....
   2. guavy.com — JPMorgan Abandons Oil Price Forecast Amid Ongoing Iran ...
   3. www.aol.com — 'We simply don't know': JPMorgan waves the white flag forecasting where oil prices will go due to Iran Wa....
   4. nypost.com — Why JPMorgan has given up predicting what the oil markets ...
   5. pluang.com — JPMorgan halts oil price forecasts amid Iran co... | Pluang
   6. www.pakgold.net — JPMorgan: Prolonged Iran War Disrupts Oil Supply, No Clear ...
   7. economictimes.indiatimes.com — CRUDE OIL PRICES FORECAST - The Economic Times
   8. www.energyconnects.com — JPMorgan and Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels
   confidence 90%
3. 45d ago

   JPMorgan Withdraws Oil Price Forecasts Amid US-Iran War

   JPMorgan has dropped its oil price forecasts because the bank cannot model the endgame of the war between the US and Iran. The financial institution stated it simply does not know how to predict prices as redlines are crossed in the conflict. This move reflects a broader struggle within energy markets to quantify the impact of the war, which has already disrupted oil markets. Analysts are currently unable to determine a predictable trajectory for prices while the geopolitical situation remains volatile.

   Why it matters

   Oil markets typically react to geopolitical instability, but the scale of the US-Iran conflict has created unprecedented uncertainty. Accurate forecasting is essential for global energy pricing and economic stability. The inability of a major financial entity to provide a forecast signals a high level of market unpredictability.

   What is confirmed

   • JPMorgan has dropped its oil price forecasts due to the US-Iran war.
   • JPMorgan stated, "We simply don't know how to model the endgame."
   • The war between Iran and the US has disrupted oil markets.

   What to watch next

   • Official statements from other major financial institutions regarding oil forecasts
   • Reports on specific redlines crossed in the US-Iran conflict
   • Changes in global oil production levels resulting from the war
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. Yahoo Finance — Energy markets grapple with Iran war uncertainty: 'We simply don't know how to model the endgame'
   2. Axios — Oil's shrug emoji era
   3. The Washington Post — Opinion | The Iran war has disrupted oil markets. The fallout goes beyond that.
   4. qz.com — JPMorgan drops Iran war oil forecast as redlines are crossed
   5. BBC — 'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to US-Iran war
   confidence 100%