Judge blocks first state law that would have banned prediction markets
Tennessee regulators are taking action against the prediction market industry by issuing cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. This state-level enforcement arrives while prediction market platforms confront mounting regulatory pressure across various jurisdictions and conflicting appellate court decisions. Federal courts increasingly support state gaming laws over these platforms, creating a fragmented legal environment. These ongoing jurisdictional clashes amplify the likelihood that the United States Supreme Court will ultimately need to determine whether federal preemption applies to these financial instruments and sports-related contracts.
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- ✓ Tennessee sent cease and desist orders to prediction market operators Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com.
- ✓ Federal courts are increasingly backing state gaming laws over prediction markets.
What changed
Tennessee targeted prediction market operators by issuing cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.
Live updates
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Tennessee Issues Cease-and-Desist Orders to Prediction Markets
Tennessee regulators are taking action against the prediction market industry by issuing cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. This state-level enforcement arrives while prediction market platforms confront mounting regulatory pressure across various jurisdictions and conflicting appellate court decisions. Federal courts increasingly support state gaming laws over these platforms, creating a fragmented legal environment. These ongoing jurisdictional clashes amplify the likelihood that the United States Supreme Court will ultimately need to determine whether federal preemption applies to these financial instruments and sports-related contracts.
Why it matters
State regulators and federal courts are locking horns with prediction market operators over whether state gaming rules or federal financial regulations govern event contracts. Ohio recently secured a legal victory against Kalshi, and a Sixth Circuit panel decided that sports-related contracts remain subject to state oversight. These divergent rulings leave operators facing a patchwork of state restrictions.
What is confirmed
- Tennessee sent cease and desist orders to prediction market operators Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com.
- Federal courts are increasingly backing state gaming laws over prediction markets.
What to watch next
- Further enforcement actions or cease-and-desist orders from additional state regulatory bodies
- Supreme Court decisions regarding federal preemption of prediction markets
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (7)
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Federal Judge Blocks First State Law Banning Prediction Markets
A federal judge blocked the first state law that sought to ban prediction markets, even as appellate courts deliver mixed rulings on the industry. A Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled that sports-related events contracts offered by prediction markets are not swaps and remain subject to state regulations. Ohio recently won a court battle over Kalshi prediction markets, while platforms face intensifying regulatory pressure across multiple jurisdictions. These conflicting judicial interpretations increase the likelihood of eventual intervention by the United States Supreme Court to resolve whether federal preemption applies to these financial instruments.
Why it matters
Prediction markets face a growing wave of state enforcement actions and conflicting appellate decisions regarding sports-related event contracts. Courts are divided on whether federal oversight applies or if state gambling regulators retain authority over these financial products.
What is confirmed
- A Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled that prediction markets' sports-related events contracts are not swaps and are subject to state regulations.
What to watch next
- Supreme Court intervention to resolve conflicting appellate rulings on federal preemption for prediction markets
- Further legal challenges regarding state gambling enforcement against Kalshi and other platforms
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (4)
- www.coindesk.com — Another appeals court rules against prediction market ...
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Federal Judge Denies Kalshi Bid to Block State Gambling Enforcement
An Iowa federal judge rejected Kalshi's request for protection from state gambling enforcement, marking a fresh legal hurdle for prediction markets. This decision follows a string of appellate rulings that allow states like Ohio and Tennessee to regulate sports-related event contracts under local gambling laws. Platforms face intensifying regulatory pressure across multiple jurisdictions as courts determine whether federal preemption applies to these financial products. The expanding legal battles increase the likelihood of eventual intervention by the United States Supreme Court to resolve conflicting interpretations.
Why it matters
Prediction market platforms operate under intense global and domestic scrutiny regarding their licensing status. Appellate courts have issued varying decisions on whether state gambling laws preempt federal oversight of these financial products. The resulting division among circuit courts creates deep uncertainty for operators offering sports-related event contracts.
What is confirmed
- An Iowa federal judge denied Kalshi's request for protection from state gambling enforcement.
- The 6th Circuit ruled that states can regulate Kalshi sports contracts as gambling, marking the second appeals court decision in less than a month confirming state authority over sports-related event contracts.
- Appellate courts have varied on the regulation of prediction markets, deepening a split regarding federal preemption.
Still unconfirmed
- Kalshi's defiance of state gambling laws may be headed to the Supreme Court.
What to watch next
- A decision by the United States Supreme Court to grant review and resolve the circuit split.
- Further legal challenges and enforcement actions by states targeting prediction market platforms.
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (8)
- www.cnbc.com — Appeals court rules states can regulate sports prediction markets
- arstechnica.com — Kalshi loses again as judges rule prediction markets must obey gambling laws
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Judge blocks first state law on prediction markets
A US appeals court ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate prediction markets like Kalshi under state gambling laws, marking a significant setback for the industry. This decision allows states to treat prediction markets as unlicensed casinos. The ruling comes as prediction market platforms face increasing regulatory scrutiny globally, including in the EU where they are said to lack necessary licenses.
Why it matters
The court's decision is a major blow to prediction market giants like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have been operating in a regulatory gray area. The ruling may set a precedent for other states to follow, potentially limiting the growth of the prediction market industry in the US. The development also highlights the challenges faced by these platforms in navigating complex regulatory environments worldwide.
What is confirmed
- A US appeals court ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi's event contracts under gambling laws.
- The European Securities and Markets Authority states that Kalshi and Polymarket lack EU licenses.
- France and twelve other countries are working to block access to these markets, which possess a combined value of tens of billions.
- The Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws.
- New York Attorney General Letitia James filed suit against Polymarket for operating in New York without a license.
Still unconfirmed
- Prediction markets describe themselves as a public service and claim to be more accurate than polls.
What to watch next
- The outcome of the suit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Polymarket
- The response of prediction market platforms to increasing regulatory scrutiny globally
- The impact of the US appeals court ruling on the prediction market industry in other countries
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- nypost.com — Kalshi subject to state gambling laws, appeals court finds — major blow to prediction market giant
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Federal judge permits Iowa to regulate prediction markets as unlicensed casinos
A federal judge ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws. This decision enables Iowa to regulate prediction markets as unlicensed casinos. The ruling arrives as Kalshi and Polymarket encounter international regulatory scrutiny. The European Securities and Markets Authority states both platforms lack EU licenses. France and twelve other countries are currently working to block access to these markets, which possess a combined value of tens of billions.
Why it matters
Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcome of future events. The legal status of these platforms varies globally, creating a conflict between federal commodity laws and state-level gambling prohibitions.
What to watch next
- Further legal challenges to the Iowa regulation ruling
- Updates on the EU licensing status of Kalshi and Polymarket
- Progress of access blocks in France and twelve other nations
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (2)
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Judge blocks state law banning prediction markets
A federal judge ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws, allowing Iowa to regulate prediction markets as unlicensed casinos. This decision comes as Kalshi and Polymarket face international regulatory pressure. The European Securities and Markets Authority reports both platforms operate without EU licenses, while France and twelve other nations are attempting to block access to the markets, which hold a combined value of tens of billions.
Why it matters
Prediction markets allow users to bet on real-world outcomes, often including political events. The current legal conflict centers on whether these platforms are commodities exchanges or gambling operations. This distinction determines if they fall under federal or state jurisdiction.
What is confirmed
- The European Securities and Markets Authority states Kalshi and Polymarket operate without EU licenses.
- France and twelve other nations are working to block access to prediction markets valued at tens of billions.
- A federal judge ruled the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws.
- Iowa can continue regulating prediction markets as unlicensed casinos.
What to watch next
- Further court appeals regarding the Commodity Exchange Act's jurisdiction over state law
- Implementation of access blocks by France and other EU nations
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (4)
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EU Regulator Reports Polymarket and Kalshi Lack Licenses
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) states that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket operate without EU licenses. This regulatory pressure coincides with efforts by France and twelve other nations to block access to these platforms, which have a combined value of tens of billions. These developments follow a federal judge's ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws, a decision that allows Iowa to continue regulating prediction markets as unlicensed casinos.
Why it matters
Prediction markets are experiencing high trading volumes during election seasons. This has triggered a clash between platform operators and government regulators over whether these sites constitute legal financial exchanges or illegal gambling.
Still unconfirmed
- ESMA says Polymarket and Kalshi have zero EU licenses.
- France and a dozen other countries are moving to block access to Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Polymarket and Kalshi are worth tens of billions combined.
What to watch next
- Decisions by France and other EU nations on blocking platform access.
- Further legal challenges to state-level gambling restrictions in the US.
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (2)
- startupfortune.com — Europe's Top Markets Regulator Says Polymarket and Kalshi Lack EU Licenses
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Federal Judge Rejects Kalshi Challenge to Iowa Prediction Market Rules
A federal judge denied a request by Kalshi to block Iowa's regulation of prediction markets. The judge ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not clearly preempt state gambling laws, allowing Iowa to maintain its regulatory authority. This decision follows a period of increasing volatility for prediction markets, which are seeing a surge in election-season trading while facing accusations from various states that they operate as unlicensed casinos. These platforms continue to face legal pressure as regulators debate whether federal law overrides state-level gambling restrictions.
Why it matters
Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. These platforms are currently under scrutiny by multiple state authorities and the US Supreme Court regarding their legal status as gambling entities.
What is confirmed
- A federal judge rejected Kalshi's bid to block prediction market regulation in Iowa.
- The judge stated that if Congress intended the Commodity Exchange Act to preempt state gambling laws, it should have been clear.
- Trading on prediction markets is increasing during the 2026 election season.
Still unconfirmed
- Some states are attempting to outlaw prediction platforms by labeling them unlicensed casinos.
- Kalshi paid $18.6 million to the wrong winners before a comeback in Michigan.
What to watch next
- US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of prediction markets requested by New Jersey
- Further state-level legal challenges to the Commodity Exchange Act's preemption
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (4)
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- www.courthousenews.com — Federal judge squashes Kalshi bid to block prediction market regulation by Iowa
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Judge blocks first state law on prediction markets
A US judge has blocked a state law that would have banned prediction markets, specifically impacting platforms like Kalshi. This development comes as various states and regulators scrutinize the legality of such platforms. Michigan recently blocked Kalshi from offering sports bets in the state, while New Jersey authorities have requested the US Supreme Court review the legality of prediction markets.
Why it matters
The prediction market industry has faced increasing scrutiny from state regulators, with some arguing that these platforms constitute gambling rather than 'swaps.' The US Supreme Court is expected to decide whether to review the legality of this business model later this fall. The outcome could have significant implications for the industry's operations across the United States.
What is confirmed
- A Michigan judge issued a preliminary injunction requiring KalshiEx to halt sports betting offers to state residents and implement geofencing.
- New Jersey authorities requested the US Supreme Court decide if prediction markets must follow state gambling laws.
Still unconfirmed
- Malaysia's PAS calls for review and halt of new gambling licenses and an RCI into alleged "corporate mafia" tied to law enforcement.
What to watch next
- The US Supreme Court's decision on whether to review the legality of prediction markets later this fall
- The implementation of geofencing by KalshiEx in Michigan
- Further regulatory actions against prediction markets in various states
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (4)
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New Jersey asks Supreme Court to rule on prediction market legality
New Jersey authorities requested the U.S. Supreme Court decide if prediction markets must follow state gambling laws. The state argues that sports bets on platforms like Kalshi are gambling rather than "swaps." This request marks the first time the Supreme Court has been asked to review the legality of this business model. A decision on whether the court will hear the case is expected later this fall.
Why it matters
Prediction markets face increasing legal pressure across the US. A federal judge previously blocked a Minnesota law that would have banned these markets, while New York's attorney general has sued Kalshi.
What is confirmed
- New Jersey asked the U.S. Supreme Court to decide if prediction markets must follow state gambling laws.
- New Jersey argues that sports bets on Kalshi are gambling and not swaps.
Still unconfirmed
- A circuit split has increased the likelihood that the Supreme Court will rule on the Kalshi dispute.
- The Supreme Court could decide whether to hear the case later this fall.
What to watch next
- Supreme Court decision on whether to grant certiorari for the New Jersey case
- Further rulings on the Minnesota ban or New York lawsuit against Kalshi
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (5)
- finance.yahoo.com — N.J. asks Supreme Court to decide if prediction markets, like Kalshi, must follow state gambling laws
- arstechnica.com — NJ urges SCOTUS to rule that Kalshi sports bets are gambling, not “swaps”
- 6abc.com — New Jersey asks Supreme Court to shut down prediction markets
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Judge blocks first state law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies, with New York's attorney general suing prediction market operator Kalshi.
Why it matters
The court's decision reflects growing debate over the regulation of prediction markets. These platforms are licensed by a federal commodity regulator, not state gaming boards, and aren't taxed like gambling. Conflicting court rulings may lead to a Supreme Court showdown.
What is confirmed
- Prediction platforms get licensed by an obscure federal commodity regulator, instead of state gaming boards.
- Prediction platforms aren't taxed like gambling.
- New York's attorney general is suing prediction market operator Kalshi.
- Connecticut has also taken legal action against Kalshi.
- A federal appeals court ruling may lead to a Supreme Court clash over prediction market regulation.
Still unconfirmed
- The casino industry is fighting to stop prediction markets.
What to watch next
- The Supreme Court's potential review of conflicting court rulings on prediction market regulation
- The outcome of New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
- The impact of Minnesota's blocked law on other states' regulatory efforts
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (6)
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Judge blocks first state law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies, with New York's attorney general suing prediction market operator Kalshi. Connecticut has also taken legal action against Kalshi.
Why it matters
The Minnesota law's temporary halt reflects growing debate over the regulation of prediction markets in the US. Prediction markets are distinct from sports betting, being CFTC-regulated and peer-to-peer. The industry faces increasing legal challenges from states.
What is confirmed
- Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated, peer-to-peer, and cover any event.
- A federal appeals court ruled that states can regulate prediction markets like gambling.
- Connecticut has taken legal action against Kalshi, seeking to stop the prediction market operator from offering sports event contracts.
- New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
What to watch next
- The outcome of Connecticut's lawsuit against Kalshi
- The impact of the federal appeals court ruling on the prediction market industry
- The resolution of New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (4)
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- www.mynbc5.com — States can regulate prediction markets as gambling, federal appeals court rules
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Judge blocks Minnesota law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
Why it matters
The Minnesota law was the first of its kind in the US, and its temporary halt allows prediction markets to continue operating in the state. The ruling is significant as it comes amid a growing debate over the regulation of prediction markets. Several states, including Utah, have implemented or proposed laws banning or restricting prediction markets.
What is confirmed
- A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets.
- New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
- Utah has secured a victory in a lawsuit over its prop betting law.
- The US government has ordered Kalshi to keep operating despite New York's lawsuit.
Still unconfirmed
- Kalshi plans to appeal the federal court ruling allowing Utah to enforce its new law banning proposition betting.
What to watch next
- The outcome of the Wisconsin lawsuit blocking online sports betting
- The appeal of the Utah prop betting law ruling by Kalshi
- The resolution of the New York lawsuit against Kalshi
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (5)
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Judge blocks Minnesota law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
Why it matters
The Minnesota law's temporary halt allows prediction markets to continue operating in the state for now. The legal landscape for prediction markets is evolving, with various states taking different approaches. Federally regulated prediction markets currently operate in some states, including Hawaii, despite strict gambling bans.
What is confirmed
- A federal judge temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets.
- The Minnesota law was set to take effect on August 1.
- New York's attorney general sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
- Federally regulated prediction markets allow Hawaiians to wager on elections despite the state's strict gambling ban.
What to watch next
- The outcome of New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
- The impact of the Minnesota law's temporary halt on other states' regulatory approaches
- The decision on Kalshi's event-contract platform in New York
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (5)
- www.law.com — New York Sues Kalshi, Escalating Fight Over Prediction Markets and State Gambling Law
- www.governing.com — The Gambling Loophole Hawaii Can't Close
- ftw-eu.usatoday.com — Best Prediction Markets: How They Work & How to Trade (August 2026)
- consent.yahoo.com — New York sues prediction market platform Kalshi alleging 'illegal gambling operation'
- www.nbcnews.com — New York sues Kalshi, says its prediction markets are illegal gambling
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Judge blocks Minnesota law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
Why it matters
The Minnesota law's temporary halt allows prediction markets to continue operating in the state for now. The legal developments reflect a broader debate over the regulation of prediction markets in the US. Federally regulated prediction markets currently operate in some states, including Hawaii, despite strict gambling bans.
What is confirmed
- A federal judge temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets.
- The Minnesota law was set to take effect on August 1.
- New York's attorney general sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
- Federally regulated prediction markets allow Hawaiians to wager on elections despite the state's strict gambling ban.
What to watch next
- The outcome of New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
- The final ruling on Minnesota's law banning prediction markets
- Potential regulatory actions against other prediction market operators
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (5)
- www.law.com — New York Sues Kalshi, Escalating Fight Over Prediction Markets and State Gambling Law
- www.governing.com — The Gambling Loophole Hawaii Can't Close
- ftw-eu.usatoday.com — Best Prediction Markets: How They Work & How to Trade (August 2026)
- consent.yahoo.com — New York sues prediction market platform Kalshi alleging 'illegal gambling operation'
- www.nbcnews.com — New York sues Kalshi, says its prediction markets are illegal gambling
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Federal Judge Blocks Minnesota Prediction Market Ban
A federal judge temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets. The ruling came just days before the law was scheduled to take effect on August 1. This was the first law of its kind in the United States.
What's confirmed:
- A federal judge temporarily blocked Minnesota's law banning prediction markets.
- The law was the first of its kind in the nation.
- The ban was scheduled to take effect on August 1.
Still unconfirmed:
- Governor Walz banned state workers from using private government information to bet on prediction markets.
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (10)
- Minnesota Judge Blocks First State Ban on Prediction Markets Like Kalshi and Polymarket
- Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court
- Federal judge halts Minnesota law meant to bar prediction markets within state
- Federal judge blocks Minnesota’s prediction market ban days before it takes effect
- Judge blocks first state law that would have banned prediction markets
- Walz bans state workers from betting with private government info on prediction markets
- Prediction markets ban to go in effect Aug. 1
- Federal judge temporarily blocks Minnesota law that would ban most bets on prediction markets
- Federal court blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets for now
- Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court
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