Judge blocks first state law that would have banned prediction markets
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) states that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket operate without EU licenses. This regulatory pressure coincides with efforts by France and twelve other nations to block access to these platforms, which have a combined value of tens of billions. These developments follow a federal judge's ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws, a decision that allows Iowa to continue regulating prediction markets as unlicensed casinos.
Listen to Live Briefing
Real-time synthesized voice briefing · Live Feeds Desk
- ✓ The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) states that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket operate without EU licenses.
- ✓ This regulatory pressure coincides with efforts by France and twelve other nations to block access to these platforms, which have a combined value of tens of billions.
- ✓ These developments follow a federal judge's ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws, a decision that allows Iowa to continue regulating prediction markets as unlicensed casinos.
What changed
ESMA reported that Kalshi and Polymarket lack EU licenses as thirteen countries move to block access.
Live updates
-
EU Regulator Reports Polymarket and Kalshi Lack Licenses
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) states that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket operate without EU licenses. This regulatory pressure coincides with efforts by France and twelve other nations to block access to these platforms, which have a combined value of tens of billions. These developments follow a federal judge's ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws, a decision that allows Iowa to continue regulating prediction markets as unlicensed casinos.
Why it matters
Prediction markets are experiencing high trading volumes during election seasons. This has triggered a clash between platform operators and government regulators over whether these sites constitute legal financial exchanges or illegal gambling.
Still unconfirmed
- ESMA says Polymarket and Kalshi have zero EU licenses.
- France and a dozen other countries are moving to block access to Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Polymarket and Kalshi are worth tens of billions combined.
What to watch next
- Decisions by France and other EU nations on blocking platform access.
- Further legal challenges to state-level gambling restrictions in the US.
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (2)
- startupfortune.com — Europe's Top Markets Regulator Says Polymarket and Kalshi Lack EU Licenses
- www.wpr.org — Kenosha DA’s law license suspended, Tiffany crash landing investigation
-
Federal Judge Rejects Kalshi Challenge to Iowa Prediction Market Rules
A federal judge denied a request by Kalshi to block Iowa's regulation of prediction markets. The judge ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not clearly preempt state gambling laws, allowing Iowa to maintain its regulatory authority. This decision follows a period of increasing volatility for prediction markets, which are seeing a surge in election-season trading while facing accusations from various states that they operate as unlicensed casinos. These platforms continue to face legal pressure as regulators debate whether federal law overrides state-level gambling restrictions.
Why it matters
Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. These platforms are currently under scrutiny by multiple state authorities and the US Supreme Court regarding their legal status as gambling entities.
What is confirmed
- A federal judge rejected Kalshi's bid to block prediction market regulation in Iowa.
- The judge stated that if Congress intended the Commodity Exchange Act to preempt state gambling laws, it should have been clear.
- Trading on prediction markets is increasing during the 2026 election season.
Still unconfirmed
- Some states are attempting to outlaw prediction platforms by labeling them unlicensed casinos.
- Kalshi paid $18.6 million to the wrong winners before a comeback in Michigan.
What to watch next
- US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of prediction markets requested by New Jersey
- Further state-level legal challenges to the Commodity Exchange Act's preemption
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (4)
- finance.yahoo.com — Kalshi Paid the Wrong Winners $18.6 Million Before Michigan's Miracle Comeback
- apnews.com — 2026’s elections could test how heavy trading on prediction markets affects races and results
- www.briefs.co — Report warns AI could game Britain's electricity flexibility market
- www.courthousenews.com — Federal judge squashes Kalshi bid to block prediction market regulation by Iowa
-
Judge blocks first state law on prediction markets
A US judge has blocked a state law that would have banned prediction markets, specifically impacting platforms like Kalshi. This development comes as various states and regulators scrutinize the legality of such platforms. Michigan recently blocked Kalshi from offering sports bets in the state, while New Jersey authorities have requested the US Supreme Court review the legality of prediction markets.
Why it matters
The prediction market industry has faced increasing scrutiny from state regulators, with some arguing that these platforms constitute gambling rather than 'swaps.' The US Supreme Court is expected to decide whether to review the legality of this business model later this fall. The outcome could have significant implications for the industry's operations across the United States.
What is confirmed
- A Michigan judge issued a preliminary injunction requiring KalshiEx to halt sports betting offers to state residents and implement geofencing.
- New Jersey authorities requested the US Supreme Court decide if prediction markets must follow state gambling laws.
Still unconfirmed
- Malaysia's PAS calls for review and halt of new gambling licenses and an RCI into alleged "corporate mafia" tied to law enforcement.
What to watch next
- The US Supreme Court's decision on whether to review the legality of prediction markets later this fall
- The implementation of geofencing by KalshiEx in Michigan
- Further regulatory actions against prediction markets in various states
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (4)
- apnews.com — Live updates: US tightens economic squeeze on Iran after a week of renewed strikes
- dailyhodl.com — Michigan Blocks Predictions Markets Platform Kalshi From Offering Sports Bets in the State
- heraldcourier.com — US judge again blocks Postal Service's mail-in voting rule
- www.briefs.co — PAS pushes federal gambling licenses review, seeks RCI on "corporate mafia"
-
New Jersey asks Supreme Court to rule on prediction market legality
New Jersey authorities requested the U.S. Supreme Court decide if prediction markets must follow state gambling laws. The state argues that sports bets on platforms like Kalshi are gambling rather than "swaps." This request marks the first time the Supreme Court has been asked to review the legality of this business model. A decision on whether the court will hear the case is expected later this fall.
Why it matters
Prediction markets face increasing legal pressure across the US. A federal judge previously blocked a Minnesota law that would have banned these markets, while New York's attorney general has sued Kalshi.
What is confirmed
- New Jersey asked the U.S. Supreme Court to decide if prediction markets must follow state gambling laws.
- New Jersey argues that sports bets on Kalshi are gambling and not swaps.
Still unconfirmed
- A circuit split has increased the likelihood that the Supreme Court will rule on the Kalshi dispute.
- The Supreme Court could decide whether to hear the case later this fall.
What to watch next
- Supreme Court decision on whether to grant certiorari for the New Jersey case
- Further rulings on the Minnesota ban or New York lawsuit against Kalshi
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (5)
- finance.yahoo.com — N.J. asks Supreme Court to decide if prediction markets, like Kalshi, must follow state gambling laws
- arstechnica.com — NJ urges SCOTUS to rule that Kalshi sports bets are gambling, not “swaps”
- 6abc.com — New Jersey asks Supreme Court to shut down prediction markets
- www.cheddar.com — Big Business This Week: Why Vegan Investing Has Beaten the Market
- www.insurancejournal.com — New Jersey Takes Fight Over Kalshi’s Prediction Market to US Supreme Court
-
Judge blocks first state law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies, with New York's attorney general suing prediction market operator Kalshi.
Why it matters
The court's decision reflects growing debate over the regulation of prediction markets. These platforms are licensed by a federal commodity regulator, not state gaming boards, and aren't taxed like gambling. Conflicting court rulings may lead to a Supreme Court showdown.
What is confirmed
- Prediction platforms get licensed by an obscure federal commodity regulator, instead of state gaming boards.
- Prediction platforms aren't taxed like gambling.
- New York's attorney general is suing prediction market operator Kalshi.
- Connecticut has also taken legal action against Kalshi.
- A federal appeals court ruling may lead to a Supreme Court clash over prediction market regulation.
Still unconfirmed
- The casino industry is fighting to stop prediction markets.
What to watch next
- The Supreme Court's potential review of conflicting court rulings on prediction market regulation
- The outcome of New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
- The impact of Minnesota's blocked law on other states' regulatory efforts
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (6)
- www.cnn.com — ‘This is an all-out war’: Inside the casino industry’s fight to stop prediction markets
- www.scotusblog.com — Updates on the new birthright citizenship executive order and mail-in ballots
- ftw.usatoday.com — Best Prediction Markets: How They Work & How to Trade (September 2026)
- abc6onyourside.com — Conflicting court rulings deepen fight over how prediction markets are regulated
- www.briefs.co — LA County sues State Farm over January 2025 wildfire claims
- www.briefs.co — Noble Supply & Logistics Files Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
-
Judge blocks first state law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies, with New York's attorney general suing prediction market operator Kalshi. Connecticut has also taken legal action against Kalshi.
Why it matters
The Minnesota law's temporary halt reflects growing debate over the regulation of prediction markets in the US. Prediction markets are distinct from sports betting, being CFTC-regulated and peer-to-peer. The industry faces increasing legal challenges from states.
What is confirmed
- Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated, peer-to-peer, and cover any event.
- A federal appeals court ruled that states can regulate prediction markets like gambling.
- Connecticut has taken legal action against Kalshi, seeking to stop the prediction market operator from offering sports event contracts.
- New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
What to watch next
- The outcome of Connecticut's lawsuit against Kalshi
- The impact of the federal appeals court ruling on the prediction market industry
- The resolution of New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (4)
- www.si.com — Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting: Key Differences Explained
- www.briefs.co — Nvidia Executive Faces Taiwan Charges in AI Server Export Case
- www.igamingtoday.com — Connecticut Takes Kalshi to Court in Escalating Fight Over Sports Prediction Markets
- www.mynbc5.com — States can regulate prediction markets as gambling, federal appeals court rules
-
Judge blocks Minnesota law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
Why it matters
The Minnesota law was the first of its kind in the US, and its temporary halt allows prediction markets to continue operating in the state. The ruling is significant as it comes amid a growing debate over the regulation of prediction markets. Several states, including Utah, have implemented or proposed laws banning or restricting prediction markets.
What is confirmed
- A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets.
- New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
- Utah has secured a victory in a lawsuit over its prop betting law.
- The US government has ordered Kalshi to keep operating despite New York's lawsuit.
Still unconfirmed
- Kalshi plans to appeal the federal court ruling allowing Utah to enforce its new law banning proposition betting.
What to watch next
- The outcome of the Wisconsin lawsuit blocking online sports betting
- The appeal of the Utah prop betting law ruling by Kalshi
- The resolution of the New York lawsuit against Kalshi
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (5)
- eu.jsonline.com — Conservative group sues to block Tony Evers on online sports betting
- www.ksl.com — Utah secures victory in lawsuit over its prop betting law; prediction market plans to appeal
- www.covers.com — NFL Prediction Market Sites: Best Platforms for Football Trading in 2026
- arstechnica.com — US tries to override New York gambling laws, orders Kalshi to keep operating
- eu.northjersey.com — As prediction market growth skyrockets, critics worry about addiction
-
Judge blocks Minnesota law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
Why it matters
The Minnesota law's temporary halt allows prediction markets to continue operating in the state for now. The legal landscape for prediction markets is evolving, with various states taking different approaches. Federally regulated prediction markets currently operate in some states, including Hawaii, despite strict gambling bans.
What is confirmed
- A federal judge temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets.
- The Minnesota law was set to take effect on August 1.
- New York's attorney general sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
- Federally regulated prediction markets allow Hawaiians to wager on elections despite the state's strict gambling ban.
What to watch next
- The outcome of New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
- The impact of the Minnesota law's temporary halt on other states' regulatory approaches
- The decision on Kalshi's event-contract platform in New York
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (5)
- www.law.com — New York Sues Kalshi, Escalating Fight Over Prediction Markets and State Gambling Law
- www.governing.com — The Gambling Loophole Hawaii Can't Close
- ftw-eu.usatoday.com — Best Prediction Markets: How They Work & How to Trade (August 2026)
- consent.yahoo.com — New York sues prediction market platform Kalshi alleging 'illegal gambling operation'
- www.nbcnews.com — New York sues Kalshi, says its prediction markets are illegal gambling
-
Judge blocks Minnesota law banning prediction markets
A federal judge has temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets, set to take effect on August 1. This law was the first of its kind in the US. The ruling comes as New York's attorney general has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
Why it matters
The Minnesota law's temporary halt allows prediction markets to continue operating in the state for now. The legal developments reflect a broader debate over the regulation of prediction markets in the US. Federally regulated prediction markets currently operate in some states, including Hawaii, despite strict gambling bans.
What is confirmed
- A federal judge temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets.
- The Minnesota law was set to take effect on August 1.
- New York's attorney general sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging its platform violates state laws against illegal gambling.
- Federally regulated prediction markets allow Hawaiians to wager on elections despite the state's strict gambling ban.
What to watch next
- The outcome of New York's lawsuit against Kalshi
- The final ruling on Minnesota's law banning prediction markets
- Potential regulatory actions against other prediction market operators
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (5)
- www.law.com — New York Sues Kalshi, Escalating Fight Over Prediction Markets and State Gambling Law
- www.governing.com — The Gambling Loophole Hawaii Can't Close
- ftw-eu.usatoday.com — Best Prediction Markets: How They Work & How to Trade (August 2026)
- consent.yahoo.com — New York sues prediction market platform Kalshi alleging 'illegal gambling operation'
- www.nbcnews.com — New York sues Kalshi, says its prediction markets are illegal gambling
-
Federal Judge Blocks Minnesota Prediction Market Ban
A federal judge temporarily halted a Minnesota law that would have banned prediction markets. The ruling came just days before the law was scheduled to take effect on August 1. This was the first law of its kind in the United States.
What's confirmed:
- A federal judge temporarily blocked Minnesota's law banning prediction markets.
- The law was the first of its kind in the nation.
- The ban was scheduled to take effect on August 1.
Still unconfirmed:
- Governor Walz banned state workers from using private government information to bet on prediction markets.
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (10)
- Minnesota Judge Blocks First State Ban on Prediction Markets Like Kalshi and Polymarket
- Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court
- Federal judge halts Minnesota law meant to bar prediction markets within state
- Federal judge blocks Minnesota’s prediction market ban days before it takes effect
- Judge blocks first state law that would have banned prediction markets
- Walz bans state workers from betting with private government info on prediction markets
- Prediction markets ban to go in effect Aug. 1
- Federal judge temporarily blocks Minnesota law that would ban most bets on prediction markets
- Federal court blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets for now
- Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court
Community Sentiment: How do you assess this situation?
Voice your perspective · Real-time aggregated sentiment from the Live Feeds community