Middle East crude exports recover to near pre-war levels but oil products still lag, analysts say
Middle East crude oil exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels, reaching a 10-day average of 17.5M bbl/day, according to JPMorgan analysts. This recovery represents 98% of previous volumes despite ongoing threats to shipping. However, petroleum product flows remain lower, at approximately 80% of pre-war levels, and global diesel supplies are tight due to refinery outages. While crude volumes are recovering, the distribution has shifted as alternative routes have more than doubled to offset a decline in volume crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
Listen to Live Briefing
Real-time synthesized voice briefing · Live Feeds Desk
- ✓ Middle East crude oil exports reached a 10-day average of 17.5M bbl/day.
- ✓ Crude exports have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels.
- ✓ Oil and petroleum product flows are at about 80 percent of prewar levels.
- ✓ Alternative export routes have more than doubled to compensate for lower volumes crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
What changed
Crude exports have rebounded to 98% of pre-war levels while oil products continue to lag.
Live updates
-
Middle East Crude Exports Near Pre-War Levels Despite Shipping Risks
Middle East crude oil exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels, reaching a 10-day average of 17.5M bbl/day, according to JPMorgan analysts. This recovery represents 98% of previous volumes despite ongoing threats to shipping. However, petroleum product flows remain lower, at approximately 80% of pre-war levels, and global diesel supplies are tight due to refinery outages. While crude volumes are recovering, the distribution has shifted as alternative routes have more than doubled to offset a decline in volume crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters
The recovery occurs amid a conflict involving Iran and continued threats to maritime security in the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Diversifying export routes reduces the strategic leverage of any single actor attempting to block the strait.
What is confirmed
- Middle East crude oil exports reached a 10-day average of 17.5M bbl/day.
- Crude exports have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels.
- Oil and petroleum product flows are at about 80 percent of prewar levels.
- Alternative export routes have more than doubled to compensate for lower volumes crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
Still unconfirmed
- Iran could resort to a scorched earth campaign.
- Iran is losing its grip over the Strait of Hormuz.
What to watch next
- Changes in global diesel supply levels following refinery outages
- Further shifts in the volume of oil crossing the Strait of Hormuz versus alternative routes
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (11)
- oilprice.com — Middle East Oil Exports Stage a Remarkable Comeback
- www.gulf-times.com — tag - Gulf Times
- BBC — Three reasons Middle East oil is nearly back to pre-Iran war levels
- seekingalpha.com — Middle East crude exports recover to near pre-war levels but oil products still lag, analysts say
- The Times — Is the Strait of Hormuz actually open?
- www.theepochtimes.com — Iran Losing Its Grip Over the Strait of Hormuz, Analysts Say
- wsj.com — Opinion | The Battle of Hormuz Is Turning
- Seeking Alpha — Middle East crude exports recover to near pre-war levels but oil products still lag, analysts say
- Fortune — Persian Gulf oil flows return to prewar levels, but Iran could resort to a 'scorched earth campaign'
- The New York Times — The Return of Middle East Oil
- internationalfinance.com — Middle East crude exports return to pre-Iran war levels as ‘Hormuz Plus One’ kicks in
Community Sentiment: How do you assess this situation?
Voice your perspective · Real-time aggregated sentiment from the Live Feeds community