Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says
Crude oil shipments from the Middle East have climbed back to 17.5 million barrels a day, matching 98% of pre-war volume according to JPMorgan Chase and Company. This return in volume occurs despite ongoing shipping risks and continuous attacks on maritime traffic in the region. The recovery of these energy exports places heavy pressure on global crude prices. At the same time, regional refinery outages continue to constrain global diesel supplies, keeping prices elevated despite the heavy flow of crude out of the Strait of Hormuz.
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- ✓ Shipments of crude oil from the Middle East hit 17.5 million barrels a day, reaching 98% of pre-war levels according to JPMorgan.
- ✓ Middle East crude exports have rebounded toward pre-war levels despite continued risks and attacks on shipping.
- ✓ JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs diverge on their exact Hormuz oil flow estimates while both seeing flows near pre-war levels.
What changed
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reported that crude oil shipments from the Middle East have returned to near pre-war levels.
Live updates
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Middle East Crude Flows Reach 98% of Pre-War Levels
Crude oil shipments from the Middle East have climbed back to 17.5 million barrels a day, matching 98% of pre-war volume according to JPMorgan Chase and Company. This return in volume occurs despite ongoing shipping risks and continuous attacks on maritime traffic in the region. The recovery of these energy exports places heavy pressure on global crude prices. At the same time, regional refinery outages continue to constrain global diesel supplies, keeping prices elevated despite the heavy flow of crude out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters
Market watchers and financial institutions are tracking the recovery of Middle East energy logistics closely following disruptions. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have issued estimates highlighting the resilience of regional exports. This ongoing export recovery tests Iran's historical leverage over maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
What is confirmed
- Shipments of crude oil from the Middle East hit 17.5 million barrels a day, reaching 98% of pre-war levels according to JPMorgan.
- Middle East crude exports have rebounded toward pre-war levels despite continued risks and attacks on shipping.
- JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs diverge on their exact Hormuz oil flow estimates while both seeing flows near pre-war levels.
Still unconfirmed
- Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz and cannot sustain its previous posture.
What to watch next
- Updates on refinery outages impacting global diesel supplies
- Further divergence or alignment between JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs flow estimates
- Changes in shipping risk levels within the Strait of Hormuz
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (13)
- WSJ — Q: How Much Oil Is Flowing Out of the Middle East?
- Barchart.com — Crude Prices Pressured as More Oil Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz
- CNN — Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever
- The Economist — Has Iran lost its grip on Gulf oil exports?
- Bloomberg.com — Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says
- Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com — JP Morgan, Goldman Diverge on Hormuz Oil Flow Estimates
- www.energyconnects.com — JPMorgan and Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels
- The Washington Post — Why a rebound of oil shipments isn’t bringing a big drop in prices
- Bloomberg.com — Wall Street Sees Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels
- www.livemint.com — Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan ...
- www.cnbctv18.com — West Asia crude oil flows hit 98% of pre-war level despite ...
- oilprice.com — Middle East Oil Exports Stage a Remarkable Comeback
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