‘Most ridiculous IPO of 2026’: the bear case on the Anthropic IPO valuation
Anthropic is targeting a pre-Thanksgiving IPO with a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion, though research firm New Constructs calls it the most ridiculous IPO of 2026. New Constructs estimates the company's fair value as low as $144 billion, arguing a $2 trillion valuation would require profits twice those of Nvidia by 2035. While Anthropic reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, investors are tempering expectations due to a slowdown in revenue growth. The listing is viewed as the last major AI IPO for the year following OpenAI's delay.
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- ✓ Anthropic reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion.
- ✓ Research firm New Constructs valued Anthropic at as little as $144 billion.
- ✓ New Constructs labeled the upcoming listing the most ridiculous IPO of 2026.
What changed
New Constructs released a report valuing Anthropic at $144 billion and criticizing its $2 trillion target.
Live updates
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Anthropic IPO Faces Backlash Over $2 Trillion Valuation Target
Anthropic is targeting a pre-Thanksgiving IPO with a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion, though research firm New Constructs calls it the most ridiculous IPO of 2026. New Constructs estimates the company's fair value as low as $144 billion, arguing a $2 trillion valuation would require profits twice those of Nvidia by 2035. While Anthropic reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, investors are tempering expectations due to a slowdown in revenue growth. The listing is viewed as the last major AI IPO for the year following OpenAI's delay.
Why it matters
The valuation represents a significant jump from a $965 billion round in May. Market skepticism has coincided with stock drops for AI-related companies like AMD and Sandisk. The outcome will signal whether the public market still supports aggressive premiums for generative AI firms.
What is confirmed
- Anthropic reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion.
- Research firm New Constructs valued Anthropic at as little as $144 billion.
- New Constructs labeled the upcoming listing the most ridiculous IPO of 2026.
Still unconfirmed
- Investors are lowering valuation expectations because of a revenue growth slowdown.
What to watch next
- Official filing of IPO price range and date
- Confirmation of final Q3 audited revenue figures
- Announcement of OpenAI's rescheduled public market debut
confidence 85%Sources used for this update (12)
- CNBC — Anthropic's third-quarter revenue is said to hit $16.8 billion ahead of IPO
- help.naver.com — Futures Flat As Oil Rebounds After Trump's "Energy Ceasefire" Unravels, Memory Stocks Slide | ZeroHedge
- Barron's — Sandisk, AMD Stocks Drop as Anthropic Adds to AI Misery
- Reuters — EXCLUSIVE: Investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over revenue growth slowdown, sources say
- Yahoo Finance UK — 'Not good enough. It's over': The AI doomers are going off on Anthropic's revenue figures
- The Next Web — ‘Most ridiculous IPO of 2026’: the bear case on the Anthropic IPO valuation
- thenextweb.com — Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO of 2026’, says it may be worth $144bn - TNW ,The heart of tech™
- www.cnbc.com — Anthropic is AI trade's last big hope for a major IPO this year
- daily.dev — Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO...
- for.you.com — Anthropic IPO Valuation Nears $2 Trillion as Skeptics Push Back
- www.kucoin.com — Anthropic's $200B IPO Faces Valuation and Structural Risks
- chiprook.com — New Constructs calls Anthropic the 'most ridiculous IPO of ...
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