Nearly $1.9 billion traded on midterms in booming prediction markets

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1. 16m ago

   Nearly $1.9 billion traded on US midterms in booming prediction markets

   Americans have wagered nearly $1.9 billion on the midterm elections as of late Monday, mostly on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The large sums of money being traded are testing the accuracy of these markets, which have shown differing levels of success in forecasting election outcomes. The midterms will determine control of the US Congress.

   Why it matters

   The prediction markets are facing a major accuracy test with the midterms, as they have become increasingly popular and are being closely watched by traders and politicians alike. The outcome of the midterms will have significant implications for the US Congress and the balance of power in Washington.

   What is confirmed

   • Nearly $1.9 billion has been wagered on the midterm elections as of late Monday.
   • The prediction markets are testing their accuracy with the midterms.
   • Kalshi and Polymarket are among the most popular prediction market platforms.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Democrats are favored to win the House and Senate in prediction markets.

   What to watch next

   • The outcome of the midterm elections
   • The accuracy of the prediction markets in forecasting the election results
   • Any regulatory actions taken in response to the growing popularity of prediction markets
   Sources used for this update (15)

   1. The New York Times — Polymarket and Kalshi Face a Major Accuracy Test: The Midterms
   2. Bloomberg.com — Betting Odds Look More Certain Than Polls, But Don’t Let That Confuse You
   3. The Washington Post — Nearly $1.9 billion traded on midterms in booming prediction markets
   4. Reuters — Prediction markets face US midterms test as election bets soar
   5. Yahoo Finance — Prediction markets vs. polls: Election forecasting industry faces midterm test
   6. The Guardian — Are prediction markets accurate on elections? The US midterms are a big test
   7. Newser — Prediction Markets Face High-Stakes Test in Midterms
   8. WSJ — Election Is a Field Day for Top Prediction-Market Traders
   9. Reuters — Betting on US midterms brings rush, stress as serious money goes on the line
   10. WSJ — See How Race Forecasters Project the Senate and House—and Pick Your Own Winners
   11. www.inquirer.com — Photos of Election Day around the region
   12. finance.yahoo.com — Midterm Elections: Americans Have Wagered $1.9 Billion on ...
   confidence 85%