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● LIVE Updated 18m ago · 4 sources tracked

No Yeah Buts in Today's CPI. It's All Bad For Bonds

U.S. Treasury yields jumped at the fastest pace since President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs after November CPI data came in hotter than expected, eliminating hopes for a dovish Federal Reserve pivot. The selloff pushed mortgage rates higher and forced traders to price in additional rate hikes rather than cuts. Markets are now closed for a holiday, pausing the rout but leaving the trend firmly bearish for bonds.

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  • ✓ U.S. borrowing costs rose at the fastest rate since Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs following the November CPI release.
  • ✓ The inflation data showed broad-based upside surprises with no offsetting soft spots.
  • ✓ Traders shifted to pricing in further Fed rate hikes instead of cuts after the report.
  • ✓ Treasury markets are paused for a holiday after the inflation-fueled selloff.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 4 independent reporting domains (88% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

November CPI data exceeded forecasts across all categories, triggering the sharpest Treasury selloff since the 2019 tariff escalation and forcing a repricing of Fed policy expectations from cuts to hikes.

Live updates

  1. Hot CPI Triggers Bond Selloff, Yields Surge Most Since Trump Tariffs

    U.S. Treasury yields jumped at the fastest pace since President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs after November CPI data came in hotter than expected, eliminating hopes for a dovish Federal Reserve pivot. The selloff pushed mortgage rates higher and forced traders to price in additional rate hikes rather than cuts. Markets are now closed for a holiday, pausing the rout but leaving the trend firmly bearish for bonds.

    Why it matters

    The inflation report showed no "yeah buts", every component surprised to the upside, according to Mortgage News Daily. That shattered the narrative of cooling price pressures that had fueled a bond rally. The Telegraph notes the yield spike matches the velocity seen after Trump's trade escalation, signaling deepening investor anxiety about sticky inflation and fiscal trajectory.

    What is confirmed

    • U.S. borrowing costs rose at the fastest rate since Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs following the November CPI release.
    • The inflation data showed broad-based upside surprises with no offsetting soft spots.
    • Traders shifted to pricing in further Fed rate hikes instead of cuts after the report.
    • Treasury markets are paused for a holiday after the inflation-fueled selloff.

    Still unconfirmed

    • The bond market's friendly trend may have ended permanently.

    What to watch next

    • Next FOMC meeting policy statement and dot plot
    • December CPI release for trend confirmation
    • Fed speakers' commentary on terminal rate expectations
    Sources used for this update (5)
    1. Mortgage News Daily — No Yeah Buts in Today's CPI. It's All Bad For Bonds
    2. The Telegraph — US borrowing costs rise at fastest rate since Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs
    3. Bloomberg.com — Bonds Tumble as Hot Inflation Fuels Bets on More Fed Rate Hikes
    4. Mortgage News Daily — Is This The End of The Friendly Trend?
    5. WSJ — U.S. Treasurys Pause on Market Holiday After Inflation-Fueled Selloff
    confidence 88%
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