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Oil falls as International Energy Agency forecasts supply glut next year after U.S.-Iran deal

Brent and WTI prices fell as traders reacted to a U.S.-Iran agreement to end the conflict. The IEA expects a supply glut in 2027 if a lasting settlement is reached. Global supply is projected to drop in 2026 before this rebound.

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What changed

New reports specify that WTI also fell and that global supply is expected to decline in 2026 before the 2027 glut.

Live updates

  1. Oil Prices Dip Following U.S.-Iran Deal and IEA Supply Warning

    Brent and WTI prices fell as traders reacted to a U.S.-Iran agreement to end the conflict. The IEA expects a supply glut in 2027 if a lasting settlement is reached. Global supply is projected to drop in 2026 before this rebound.

    What's confirmed:

    • The IEA predicts a supply glut could emerge in 2027.
    • Brent and WTI prices fell modestly on the day.
    • Global supply is expected to decline in 2026 before rebounding.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Inventories, shipping normalcy, and reserves remain fragile.
    • A lasting settlement would boost supply volumes and create an overhang in 2027.
    confidence 90%

  2. Oil prices drop as IEA forecasts 2027 supply surplus after US-Iran deal

    Brent crude prices fell following an interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran signed on June 17, 2026. The International Energy Agency predicts a significant oil glut by 2027 as supply increases. Some experts warn prices could still spike if negotiations fail.

    What's confirmed:

    • The U.S. and Iran signed an interim peace agreement on June 17, 2026.
    • The International Energy Agency forecasts a supply surplus by 2027.
    • Brent crude prices fell after the U.S.-Iran deal.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Global oil demand may contract by 1 in 2026.
    confidence 80%

  3. Oil Prices Drop Following US-Iran Peace Deal and IEA Glut Warning

    Oil prices fell after President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly signed a deal to end the Middle East war. The International Energy Agency warns this resolution could lead to a massive oil glut by 2027. Production may rise as Gulf producers restart shut oilfields.

    What's confirmed:

    • International benchmark Brent crude futures for August dropped 2.83% to $77.30 a barrel.
    • U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for July fell 3.20% to $74.33 per barrel.
    • The International Energy Agency forecasts an oil supply glut by 2027.
    • President Donald Trump and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly signed a deal to end the war in the Middle East.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Global oil production could climb by around 8 million barrels per day to reach roughly 110 million barrels.
    • The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could flip a historic supply shock into a glut.
    confidence 90%

  4. Oil Prices Drop Following U.S.-Iran Peace Deal

    Oil prices are falling as prospects for peace in the Middle East improve. The International Energy Agency expects a surge in supply if the conflict reaches a lasting resolution. This could lead to a global oil glut next year.

    What's confirmed:

    • Oil prices are declining due to the U.S.-Iran deal and rising peace prospects.
    • The International Energy Agency expects a lasting resolution to the conflict could drive a surge in supply.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Trump said he could resume attacks on Iran if it fails to honor commitments.
    • More than 12 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz.
    • The current energy crisis will have long-term implications for the entire energy sector.
    confidence 90%

  5. Oil Prices Drop as IEA Forecasts Surplus Following U.S.-Iran Deal

    Oil prices have hit three-month lows after the U.S. and Iran signed a deal to end Middle East hostilities. The IEA warns that returning Middle East supply will lead to a significant global oil glut. This surplus is expected to occur as supply rebounds outpace demand growth.

    What's confirmed:

    • The U.S. and Iran signed a deal to end hostilities in the Middle East.
    • Oil prices fell to three-month lows following the agreement.
    • The IEA forecasts a significant oil supply surplus.
    • The IEA slashed its global oil demand forecast due to demand destruction caused by the Iran war.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Global oil supply will rebound to 110.3 million barrels per day in 2025.
    • The oil surplus will occur in 2025.
    • The oil surplus will occur in 2027.
    confidence 80%