Oil falls as markets weigh return of supply, US-Iran peace deal

Live updates

1. 6d ago

   Oil plunges to 3-month low as US-Iran deal sparks supply hopes

   Oil prices have dropped sharply to their lowest levels in three months as markets react to reports of a potential US-Iran peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While traders anticipate eased supply constraints, uncertainty remains over the deal’s specifics and the speed of restored flows. Stocks rose on energy sector gains, but physical markets show mixed signals. Analysts caution deeper declines depend on concrete guarantees from the agreement.

   What's confirmed:

   • Brent crude oil prices fell below $85 per barrel, marking a 5% drop and a three-month low on Tuesday.
   • WTI crude oil prices also declined to their lowest point in three months, down nearly 3% on the day.
   • Stock markets rose on energy sector gains, with the Dow surging over 600 points amid hopes of a US-Iran peace deal.
   • The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is driving price declines, as traders anticipate eased supply constraints in global oil markets.
   • Shippers are waiting for reassurance on the safety of navigating the Strait of Hormuz before increasing activity.
   • President Trump announced plans for strikes on Iran were canceled, citing progress toward a peace deal.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • Full details of the US-Iran deal have yet to emerge, leaving uncertainty over its permanence and impact on oil flows.
   • Analysts warn that deeper price declines are uncertain without clearer supply guarantees from the agreement.
   confidence 92%
2. 7d ago

   Oil drops as Iran deal sparks supply hopes but market caution lingers

   Oil prices fell Tuesday amid optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal easing supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz, but traders remain cautious about the pace of restoration and deal specifics. Stock markets rose on energy sector gains, though physical oil markets show mixed signals. Analysts warn deeper price declines are uncertain without clearer supply guarantees. Brent crude and WTI both lost ground despite a 600-point Dow surge on deal hopes.

   What's confirmed:

   • Brent crude futures fell 45 cents to $82.72 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate dropped 24 cents to $80.51, marking early losses amid Iran deal speculation.
   • The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 600 points to a fresh record, driven by energy sector gains and hopes of an Iran deal ending the war.
   • SpaceX shares rose for a second consecutive day as investors anticipate broader market shifts from Middle East stability.
   • Morgan Stanley has revised downward its oil price forecasts, citing revived supply expectations from a potential Hormuz reopening.
   • Middle East oil markets weakened as traders reacted to optimism over increased supply, though physical delivery risks persist.
   • Oil prices rebounded slightly later in trading as uncertainties persisted about the US-Iran deal’s implementation and Hormuz supply restoration delays.
   • Shipowners remain hesitant to transit the Strait of Hormuz until they confirm the deal’s ‘material’ impact, according to industry executives.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • A preliminary US-Iran deal has been finalized, with President Trump announcing completion via Truth Social, though official details remain scarce.
   • The oil market faces significant hurdles to normalization even if a deal materializes, per analysts.
   • Oil prices could drop further but analysts describe deeper declines as ‘highly questionable’ without concrete supply guarantees.
   confidence 85%