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● TRACKER Updated 9d ago · 26 sources tracked

Oil Prices Fall Toward Prewar Levels as Gulf Shipping Resumes

Crude oil benchmarks have returned to pre-war levels as shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite President Trump claiming a deal is imminent, Tehran stated Monday it has no plans for direct talks with the U.S. Military tensions remain high with CENTCOM reporting over 50,000 U.S. troops deployed in West Asia. Additional volatility persists in the Red Sea where Houthis are considering fees for commercial vessels and a drone recently struck a U.S.-owned tanker off Egypt.

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What changed

Iran has officially denied Trump's claims that negotiations are underway.

Live updates

  1. Oil Prices Drop as Iran Denies Imminent Peace Deal

    Crude oil benchmarks have returned to pre-war levels as shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite President Trump claiming a deal is imminent, Tehran stated Monday it has no plans for direct talks with the U.S. Military tensions remain high with CENTCOM reporting over 50,000 U.S. troops deployed in West Asia. Additional volatility persists in the Red Sea where Houthis are considering fees for commercial vessels and a drone recently struck a U.S.-owned tanker off Egypt.

    Why it matters

    The February war with Iran disrupted global energy markets and shipping lanes. Current price drops reflect a tentative return to normalcy, but the failure of diplomatic talks threatens to reignite volatility.

    What is confirmed

    • CENTCOM reports more than 50,000 U.S. troops are deployed in West Asia.
    • Tehran stated Monday it has no plans for direct talks with the U.S.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Trump vowed to hit Iran very hard following an alleged overnight missile attack.

    What to watch next

    • Verification of the perpetrator behind the tanker strike off Egypt
    • Official confirmation of U.S. denuclearisation demands
    • Houthi implementation of Red Sea transit fees
    Sources used for this update (4)
    1. www.cnbctv18.com — US-Iran War Live Updates: Just how many US troops are deployed in West Asia? CENTCOM says above 50,000
    2. www.forbes.com — The Oil Price Peak Is Still In The Future
    3. www.cbsnews.com — Live Updates: Iran denies Trump's claim that U.S.-Iran negotiations to begin today after U.S. strikes called off
    4. gulfnews.com — US-Iran talks: Washington seeks denuclearisation deal as Europe weighs Hormuz role
    confidence 90%
  2. Oil Prices Return to Pre-War Levels as Hormuz Traffic Recovers

    Crude oil benchmarks have slid back to levels seen before the February war with Iran. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is resuming, though vessel movements remain below pre-conflict volumes. Markets are now monitoring potential surpluses and the stability of U.S.-Iran peace talks.

    What's confirmed:

    • Oil prices have returned to levels not seen since the war in Iran began in February.
    • Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to recover.
    • WTI, Brent, and Murban crude benchmarks have fallen below recent peaks.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz has reached more than 10 million barrels a day.
    • An oil surplus may destabilize global energy markets.
    • The U.S. administration is continuing a military buildup despite work on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
    Sources used for this update (12)
    1. Oil Prices Jump After Attack Halts Shipping in Strait of Hormuz
    2. Oil prices: Uncertainty over U.S.-Iran talks raises supply concerns - CNBC
    3. With Hormuz reopened, has the oil shortage turned into a glut?
    4. Crude oil extends post-war slump as Hormuz fears fade, prices sink ...
    5. Oil prices fall to pre-war levels as Strait of Hormuz shipping slowly ...
    6. Oil prices return to pre-war levels, but two warnings keep traders on edge
    7. Oil drops below prewar prices on Saudi supply rebound
    8. Oil sliding toward pre-war levels - Gulf News
    9. Oil prices hover near pre-war levels as Qatar cites 'positive ... - AOL
    10. Oil Prices Fall Toward Prewar Levels as Gulf Shipping Resumes
    11. Iran War Live Updates: Trump says U.S. will "go back to doing what we were doing" if new talks stall
    12. Trump says U.S. will "go back to doing what we were doing" if Iran talks stall
    confidence 85%
  3. Oil Prices Return to Pre-War Levels as Gulf Shipping Resumes

    Crude oil prices have fallen to levels not seen since before the war with Iran began on February 28. The decline follows the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a US-Iran peace deal. Brent crude dropped approximately 2% to $72, falling below $73 a barrel for the first time since the conflict started.

    What's confirmed:

    • Oil prices have dropped to levels seen before the war with Iran.
    • The war with Iran began on February 28.
    • Brent crude fell around 2% to $72, marking the first time it dropped below $73 a barrel since the war started.
    • Tanker traffic is resuming in the Strait of Hormuz following a US-Iran peace deal.
    • The average price for a gallon of gas in the US fell below $4 on Thursday.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Trump accused oil firms of gouging consumers.
    • A new US waiver may allow Iranian oil purchases.
    • IMO security assurances are contributing to the price drop.
    Sources used for this update (18)
    1. Live updates: Rubio visiting Gulf allies hit hardest by Iran as negotiators race to finalize deal
    2. Asia Tech Shares Swing Wildly as A.I. Jitters Persist
    3. Oil extends decline as Trump accuses oil firms of 'gouging' consumers
    4. Oil prices erase wartime gains as supply concerns ease with Hormuz tanker traffic resuming
    5. Oil Prices Fall Toward Prewar Levels as Gulf Shipping Resumes
    6. Oil price falls to levels not seen since before Iran war
    7. Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk
    8. Oil price falls to pre-Iran war levels as more tankers exit strait of Hormuz
    9. Oil Falls to Pre-War Levels After Supply Flows Through Hormuz
    10. Oil Prices Return to Prewar Levels, Four Months Later
    11. Oil price falls to pre-Iran war levels as more tankers exit strait of ...
    12. US-Iran War Live Updates: 'Null and void' - Hezbollah chief calls Israel-Lebanon framework agreement 'humiliating'
    confidence 90%