Oil prices set for weekly gain as US-Iran hostilities intensify
Brent crude futures rose 0.5 percent to $97.49 a barrel on Tuesday as fears of a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran drive supply concerns. Rising energy costs are triggering broader economic volatility, contributing to a 400 point slide in India's Sensex and an expected decline in the Australian sharemarket. While oil prices reach six-week highs, Goldman Sachs warns that further attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices to $120 per barrel.
What changed
Brent crude rose an additional 49 cents to $97.49 a barrel while Goldman Sachs issued a price warning of $120.
Live updates
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Brent crude climbs toward $97.50 as Middle East tensions pressure markets
Brent crude futures rose 0.5 percent to $97.49 a barrel on Tuesday as fears of a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran drive supply concerns. Rising energy costs are triggering broader economic volatility, contributing to a 400 point slide in India's Sensex and an expected decline in the Australian sharemarket. While oil prices reach six-week highs, Goldman Sachs warns that further attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices to $120 per barrel.
Why it matters
Military strikes involving vessels in the Hormuz Strait have reduced shipping traffic to its lowest level since May. Market pressure is compounded by tightening shipping fuel supplies and a decision by OPEC+ to maintain October output levels.
What is confirmed
- Brent crude futures rose 0.5 percent to $97.49 a barrel.
- Rising oil prices are contributing to declines in the Indian and Australian stock markets.
Still unconfirmed
- Goldman Sachs predicts oil could reach $120 per barrel if Middle East shipping attacks worsen.
What to watch next
- Further updates on US-Iran military activity in the Hormuz Strait
- OPEC+ revisions to the October oil output policy
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (4)
- au.finance.yahoo.com — The Morning Catch Up: ASX set to dip as oil rises and copper hits record
- oilprice.com — Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Hit $120 as Shipping Risks Rise
- economictimes.indiatimes.com — Sensex Today | Nifty 50 | Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex slides over 400 points, Nifty below 23,700; financial, oil & gas stocks slip
- tribune.com.pk — Oil rises as risks of prolonged Mideast conflict fan supply worries
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Oil Nears $97 as US-Iran Attacks Raise Supply Shock Fears
Oil prices extended gains on Monday, pushing Brent near $97 a barrel following tit-for-tat military strikes between the United States and Iran involving vessels in the Hormuz Strait and other areas. The escalating conflict drove Brent for November settlement 0.8 percent higher to $97.02 a barrel in Singapore. Kpler data shows traffic through the Hormuz Strait has dropped to its lowest level since May. Meanwhile, global shipping fuel supplies are tightening as refiners shift focus to diesel, and OPEC+ decided to keep its October oil output policy unchanged.
Why it matters
The renewed military conflict in the Middle East has disrupted critical shipping lanes and heightened fears of a prolonged supply shock, driving hedge funds to increase their bullish bets to the highest levels since May. Refiners are prioritizing diesel production due to soaring margins and war-related disruptions, creating a looming shortage of global shipping fuel. These developments coincide with hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and a cautious start for broader Asian and Wall Street markets.
What is confirmed
- Brent for November settlement rose 0.8 percent to $97.02 a barrel in Singapore.
- Tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran hit vessels in the Hormuz Strait and other areas.
- OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October.
- Traffic through the Hormuz Strait dipped to its lowest level since May according to Kpler data.
Still unconfirmed
- Iran is set to announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz.
What to watch next
- Implementation and enforcement of Iran's planned restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz
- Further tanker traffic data through the Hormuz Strait
- Evolution of global shipping fuel shortages and refinery diesel prioritization
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (6)
- www.lse.co.uk — Oil ends week higher on renewed US-Iran strikes, diesel hits record
- www.moneyweb.co.za — Oil gains as US attacks on Iranian ships raise escalation risks
- www.cnbc.com — Oil extends gains after U.S. and Iran strike ships
- www.geo.tv — Oil nears $97 as US-Iran attacks intensify fears of prolonged supply disruption
- oilprice.com — Shipping Fuel Shortage Looms as Refiners Prioritize Diesel
- hdfcsky.com — Markets Set for a Soft Start on Monday As Gift Nifty Signals Caution
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Oil prices track biggest weekly gain since July amid US-Iran hostilities
Oil is heading for its steepest weekly increase since mid-July as renewed military conflict between the US and Iran raises Middle East supply risks. Brent crude rose 7.6% and WTI climbed 10.4% for the week, the highest gains since the week ending July 20. Brent recently reached $96.06 a barrel while WTI hit $92.10. Diesel prices have reached record highs. Hedge funds have increased bullish bets to their highest levels since May as the market reacts to intensifying hostilities and disrupted supply.
Why it matters
The conflict has escalated with reports of Iran firing missiles at Kuwait. These geopolitical tensions threaten global oil stability by risking the flow of crude from a critical production region. Market volatility is increasing as traders weigh supply disruptions against inflation fears.
What is confirmed
- Oil is on track for its steepest weekly gain since mid-July.
- Brent crude futures rose 7.6% and WTI rose 10.4% for the week.
- Diesel prices have hit record highs.
- Hedge funds have pushed bullish crude oil bets to their highest levels since May.
- Brent crude futures reached $96.06 a barrel and WTI reached $92.10.
Still unconfirmed
- Brent could surge to $130 a barrel before the end of 2026.
- Iran fired missiles at Kuwait.
What to watch next
- Further military escalations between US and Iranian forces
- Official confirmation of missile strikes in Kuwait
- Changes in hedge fund positioning regarding crude oil futures
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (13)
- The New York Times — Oil Jumps for Fourth Straight Day and Diesel Nears Record High
- WSJ — Crude Futures End Mixed With No End in Sight to U.S.-Iran Conflict
- CNBC — Oil prices little changed after Iran fires missiles at Kuwait
- Bloomberg.com — Oil Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain Since July on Iran War Risks
- Reuters — Oil set for steepest weekly gain since mid-July over intensifying US-Iran tensions
- Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com — Brent Nears $96 as Iran Conflict Keeps Oil Market on Edge
- economictimes.indiatimes.com — Sensex Today | Nifty 50 | Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex rallies over 500 pts, Nifty above 23,900; financial, oil and gas stocks rise
- english.aawsat.com — Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Gain Since Mid-July, Fueled by US-Iran Clashes
- www.globalbankingandfinance.com — Oil heads for weekly gain as US-Iran fighting resumes; diesel hits record high
- www.fxempire.com — $130 Oil Before Year-End? The Year of Hard Assets May Be Saving Its Biggest Move For Last
- www.europesays.com — US-Iran Conflict Reignites as Hedge Funds Push Crude Oil Bullish Bets to Highest Since May — BigGo Finance
- finance.biggo.com — US-Iran Conflict Reignites as Hedge Funds Push Crude Oil Bullish Bets to Highest Since May