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Oil Prices Wobble as U.S.-Iran Deal Faces Tests

Crude prices have hit four-month lows as a peace deal reduces the war premium. However, stability is threatened by Iran's refusal to meet U.S. delegates in Qatar. Markets remain volatile due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

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What changed

Prices have dropped to four-month lows following a breakdown in planned talks in Qatar.

Live updates

  1. Oil Prices Slide Amid Strained U.S.-Iran Peace Process

    Crude prices have hit four-month lows as a peace deal reduces the war premium. However, stability is threatened by Iran's refusal to meet U.S. delegates in Qatar. Markets remain volatile due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

    What's confirmed:

    • Brent crude futures fell approximately 21% in June, the largest monthly drop since March 2020.
    • Iran denied plans to meet with U.S. officials in Qatar.
    • A ceasefire agreed on June 14 was reaffirmed on June 29 after brief hostilities occurred on June 27-28.
    • Brent crude with September delivery traded 0.3% lower at $72.72.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Iran intends to charge fees for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz starting in August.
    • A nuclear deal deadline in mid-August is unlikely to be met.
    • Restored flows and softer demand may keep Brent under pressure into 2027.
    confidence 90%

  2. Oil Prices Volatile as US-Iran Peace Deal Faces New Tests

    Oil prices dropped after the US and Iran signed a peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions. This deal aimed to ease a global energy supply crisis. However, prices fluctuated on Friday as the preliminary agreement showed signs of instability.

    What's confirmed:

    • The United States and Iran signed a peace deal on June 17.
    • The agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz and waived sanctions.
    • Oil prices declined following the implementation of the interim peace agreement.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Cracks have started to emerge in the preliminary deal between the United States and Iran.
    • Risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist despite the ceasefire.
    confidence 90%

  3. Oil Prices Dip as US-Iran Peace Deal Takes Effect

    Crude oil prices have declined following the implementation of an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran. Tankers are resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This movement aims to restart the flow of millions of barrels previously blocked by conflict.

    What's confirmed:

    • The US and Iran signed a peace deal.
    • Oil prices declined following the agreement.
    • Tankers have started transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
    confidence 100%

  4. Oil Prices Volatile as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Faces Early Challenges

    Crude oil prices dropped to three-month lows following a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. However, prices have since fluctuated as traders react to slow traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and new fighting in Lebanon. The agreement ends hostilities and initiates the reopening of key waterways.

    What's confirmed:

    • The U.S. and Iran signed an agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Brent Crude was priced at $83.
    • Donald Trump stated that Iran will not receive sanctions relief until it meets its commitments under the new deal.
    • Crude oil prices fell below $80 per barrel this week.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Fighting in Lebanon and slow Hormuz traffic are causing oil prices to rise.
    • The agreement is showing signs of cracks.
    confidence 90%