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● LIVE Updated 1h ago · 12 sources tracked

Panmure Liberum forecasts S&P 500 falling to 5,000, warns bull run nearing end

British brokerage Panmure Liberum predicts the benchmark S&P 500 will retreat to 5,000 points by the end of 2027, representing a decline of more than 35 percent from its previous close of 7,722.72. The firm warns that the equity bull market, which began in October 2022 and has climbed 12.8 percent this year, may conclude sooner than anticipated due to rising bond yields and higher interest rates. Joachim Klement, a research analyst at Panmure Liberum, notes that persistent increases in yields and rates could abruptly halt the current rally.

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⚡ Key Developments & Real-Time Context
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  • ✓ Panmure Liberum forecasts that the S&P 500 will retreat to 5,000 points by the end of 2027.
  • ✓ The forecast projects a drop of more than 35% from the index's last close of 7,722.72.
  • ✓ Joachim Klement, research analyst at Panmure Liberum, warned that continuous increases in bond yields and interest rates could bring an early end to the equity bull market.
  • ✓ The equity bull market began in October 2022 and the S&P 500 has gained 12.8% this year.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 12 independent reporting domains (95% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Panmure Liberum issued a bearish market forecast projecting a severe pullback in the S&P 500 by the end of 2027.

Live updates

  1. Panmure Liberum Forecasts S&P 500 Drop to 5,000

    British brokerage Panmure Liberum predicts the benchmark S&P 500 will retreat to 5,000 points by the end of 2027, representing a decline of more than 35 percent from its previous close of 7,722.72. The firm warns that the equity bull market, which began in October 2022 and has climbed 12.8 percent this year, may conclude sooner than anticipated due to rising bond yields and higher interest rates. Joachim Klement, a research analyst at Panmure Liberum, notes that persistent increases in yields and rates could abruptly halt the current rally.

    Why it matters

    The stark prediction runs counter to the optimistic outlooks held by several other brokerages tracking the market. US equities have maintained resilience despite stubborn inflation, rising bond yields, higher interest rates, and cooling optimism around the artificial intelligence boom. Upcoming third-quarter earnings reports and corporate outlooks for 2027 will test whether current corporate strength and economic data can sustain the market.

    What is confirmed

    • Panmure Liberum forecasts that the S&P 500 will retreat to 5,000 points by the end of 2027.
    • The forecast projects a drop of more than 35% from the index's last close of 7,722.72.
    • Joachim Klement, research analyst at Panmure Liberum, warned that continuous increases in bond yields and interest rates could bring an early end to the equity bull market.
    • The equity bull market began in October 2022 and the S&P 500 has gained 12.8% this year.

    Still unconfirmed

    • An artificial intelligence reality check may take the S&P 500 down to 5,000 points.

    What to watch next

    • Upcoming third-quarter earnings reports from major companies
    • Corporate outlook statements for 2027 released early next year
    • Future trajectories of Treasury yields and central bank interest rates
    Sources used for this update (11)
    1. Reuters — Panmure Liberum forecasts S&P 500 falling to 5,000, warns bull run nearing end
    2. A Wealth of Common Sense — The Biggest Risk Everyone Already Knows About
    3. marketwatch.com — An AI ‘reality check’ may take the S&P 500 to 5,000. Here are the trades to make, this strategist says.
    4. Seeking Alpha — 5 Big Risks To This AI Bull Market (SP500)
    5. Yahoo Finance UK — This S&P 500 indicator flashed red before the dotcom crash. Here’s my plan
    6. www.marketscreener.com — Euro zone business growth hits over 3-1/2-year high despite inflation worries, PMI shows | MarketScreener
    7. www.theglobeandmail.com — Panmure Liberum forecasts S&P 500 falling to 5,000, warns bull run nearing end - The Globe and Mail
    8. www.thestandard.com.hk — Panmure Liberum forecasts S&P 500 falling to 5,000, warns bull run nearing end - The Standard
    9. www.kitco.com — Panmure Liberum forecasts S&P 500 falling to 5,000, warns ...
    10. primexbt.com — Panmure Liberum Forecasts S&P 500 Falling to 5,000 by End of ...
    11. www.wealthiertoday.com — S&P 500 Could Fall to 5,000 as Panmure Warns Bull Market Is ...
    confidence 95%
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