Prediction markets are becoming more professionalized, but also harder to beat
Prediction markets face increased professionalization and shifting risks as elite investors and leaders examine how to outperform and deliver alpha. The 15th annual CNBC Delivering Alpha Investor summit on November 13, 2025 convened experts across asset classes including equities, commodities, real estate, credit, and alternatives. Attendees analyzed intelligence and ideas to balance risk with maximized returns in a financial environment defined by normalized returns and emerging market pressures. Meanwhile, industry monitors track ongoing developments regarding new markets, legislation updates, and regulation changes.
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- ✓ The 15th annual CNBC Delivering Alpha Investor summit took place on November 13, 2025.
- ✓ The summit convened elite investors and leaders across asset classes such as equities, commodities, real estate, credit, and alternatives.
What changed
The 15th annual CNBC Delivering Alpha Investor summit convened elite investors on November 13, 2025, to address shifting risks and outperformance strategies.
Live updates
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Prediction Markets Grow More Professionalized Amid Shifting Risks
Prediction markets face increased professionalization and shifting risks as elite investors and leaders examine how to outperform and deliver alpha. The 15th annual CNBC Delivering Alpha Investor summit on November 13, 2025 convened experts across asset classes including equities, commodities, real estate, credit, and alternatives. Attendees analyzed intelligence and ideas to balance risk with maximized returns in a financial environment defined by normalized returns and emerging market pressures. Meanwhile, industry monitors track ongoing developments regarding new markets, legislation updates, and regulation changes.
Why it matters
As prediction markets expand into mainstream finance, institutional investors and asset managers increasingly focus on the asset class for strategic edge. The convergence of traditional financial sectors and alternative prediction platforms highlights the demand for sophisticated risk management tools. Understanding how these venues operate alongside conventional equities and commodities remains a central focus for market participants.
What is confirmed
- The 15th annual CNBC Delivering Alpha Investor summit took place on November 13, 2025.
- The summit convened elite investors and leaders across asset classes such as equities, commodities, real estate, credit, and alternatives.
Still unconfirmed
- Specific institutional trading strategies tied directly to prediction markets were discussed at the Delivering Alpha summit.
What to watch next
- Further updates on prediction market legislation and regulation changes
- Additional announcements from institutional investors regarding prediction market participation
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (3)
- www.cnbc.com — Delivering Alpha - CNBC
- www.cnbc.com — Hedge Funds News - CNBC
- www.casino.org — Prediction Markets - Casino.org
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Prediction Markets Face Intensifying Scrutiny As Volumes Surge
Prediction markets are drawing rising attention in Washington and state capitals as trading volumes surge across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. These peer-to-peer, CFTC-regulated venues allow users to trade contracts tied to elections, weather, war, economics, and sports. While sports bets still make up the bulk of trades, institutional interest is climbing, with Morgan Stanley joining NEXTPredict. As the industry expands into US stocks such as Tesla and Apple, federal and state regulators face growing calls for increased oversight and guardrails from industry leaders.
Why it matters
The rapid expansion of prediction markets has turned them into alternative venues for high-stakes wagering on real-world outcomes. Platforms differ fundamentally from state-regulated, house-banked sportsbooks by operating under CFTC oversight as peer-to-peer networks. This growth has triggered fierce opposition from traditional gaming interests, making regulation a marquee issue at major industry conferences.
What is confirmed
- Kalshi and Polymarket allow people to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events.
- Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated, peer-to-peer, and cover any event while sportsbooks are house-banked and state-regulated.
Still unconfirmed
- Morgan Stanley has joined NEXTPredict as prediction markets court rising institutional interest.
What to watch next
- Federal and state regulatory decisions regarding prediction market compliance and expansion into US stocks.
- Further industry responses and policy positions from major gaming conferences.
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (15)
- www.cnbc.com — Prediction Markets - CNBC
- www.si.com — Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting: Key Differences Explained
- asiatimes.com — Can prediction markets create the future they predict?
- www.pbs.org — 'We want more guardrails,' Kalshi CEO says as calls grow for prediction market regulation
- www.inquirer.com — AI and the illusions of college teaching | Opinion
- finance.yahoo.com — Morgan Stanley Joins NEXTPredict as Prediction Markets Bet on ...
- news.gatech.edu — Bet on It: Understanding the Rise of Prediction Markets
- www.aigovhub.io — CFTC Prediction Markets Compliance Guide 2026: Fintech ...
- www.eurasiareview.com — What Are Prediction Markets—And Can They Really Predict The ...
- www.cbssports.com — California Prediction Markets: Our picks for the best prediction market apps in California
- www.covers.com — At G2E, the Gloves Are Off Against Prediction Markets
- www.foreignpolicyjournal.com — The Global Divide Over Prediction Markets Regulation Amid ...
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Prediction Markets Expand Into National Security and Sports Betting
Prediction markets are growing the total betting market while shifting toward high-stakes geopolitical and sporting events. While platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket compete for users through lower fees and higher liquidity, profit remains concentrated among elite traders. This professionalization now extends to national security, where the ability to bet on conflict creates risks regarding the use of insider information. Chris Grove of Eilers & Krejcik Gaming notes these markets are currently expanding the overall industry size.
Why it matters
The rise of high-tech trading firms in these markets has displaced casual bettors. This shift occurs as platforms move beyond niche predictions into mainstream events like the 2026 NFL season.
Still unconfirmed
- Prediction markets allow individuals with insider information to bet on national security issues, which may alert adversaries.
- Prediction markets are growing the overall market for now according to Chris Grove.
What to watch next
- Regulatory actions regarding insider trading on national security bets
- Performance data for casual bettors during the 2026 NFL season
confidence 70%Sources used for this update (2)
- thebulletin.org — Insiders are betting on war: How prediction markets are becoming a national security threat
- www.cnbc.com — Sportsbooks remain king this football season, but upstarts are making a run for the money
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High-tech trading firms dominate sports prediction markets
Professional traders operating like high-tech trading firms now represent the primary competition in sports prediction markets. This shift coincides with the expansion of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket into events like the 2026 NFL season. While these apps compete on liquidity, fees, and bonus value to attract users, a Yale study indicates that profit remains concentrated among a small group of elite traders, making it harder for casual participants to generate returns.
Why it matters
The professionalization of these markets suggests increased efficiency but raises concerns about the ability of average users to compete. As platforms move into mainstream sports, the divide between institutional-style traders and hobbyists widens.
What is confirmed
- Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded their offerings to include the 2026 NFL season.
- A Yale study found that a small fraction of traders capture a disproportionate share of total returns on Polymarket.
Still unconfirmed
- The biggest competitors in sports prediction markets operate like high-tech trading firms.
What to watch next
- Updates on profit concentration data following the 2026 NFL season
- Changes in platform fee structures to attract casual traders
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (2)
- www.nytimes.com — ‘What do they know that you don’t?’ The question driving sports prediction markets
- www.al.com — Best prediction markets: Top US apps and sites for September 2026
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Prediction Markets Grow More Professionalized And Harder To Beat
Prediction markets face a growing professionalization wave that makes them increasingly difficult for casual participants to beat. A recent Yale study highlights severe profit concentration, showing that a tiny fraction of traders captures a disproportionate share of total returns on platforms like Polymarket. Meanwhile, forecasting platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket continue expanding their offerings into major sporting events like the 2026 NFL season, drawing wider public attention. This evolution raises questions regarding market efficiency, moral costs, and the overall stability of forecasting systems.
Why it matters
Retail traders increasingly compete against sophisticated automated systems and deep-pocketed professionals on public forecasting platforms. This dynamic transforms casual prediction sites into highly competitive financial arenas where edge is scarce. Observers note that such professionalization alters the core utility of crowd-sourced forecasting models.
What is confirmed
- A Yale study found that 3% of Polymarket traders capture 27% of all profits.
- Prediction markets are becoming more professionalized and harder to beat.
Still unconfirmed
- Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are experiencing shifts in user demographics due to new 2026 NFL season offerings.
What to watch next
- Further research into trading concentration on forecasting platforms
- Adoption rates of prediction applications during the 2026 NFL season
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (6)
- www.cbssports.com — NFL prediction markets 2026: Learn more about Kalshi, Polymarket, others ahead of 2026 NFL season
- CNBC — Prediction markets are becoming more professionalized, but also harder to beat
- BeInCrypto — 3% of Polymarket Traders Capture 27% of All Profits, Yale Study Finds
- Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette — Moral costs of gambling on the future
- status.news — The Prediction Market Predicament
- ft.com — The perils of prediction markets
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